(11:06, Операция Z, HIGH): RF forces have breached the Sumy regional border, forcing UAF to withdraw from positions near Hrabovske.
(11:06, Архангел Спецназа, MEDIUM): RF units report ongoing "clearing operations" within Myrnohrad (Pokrovsk sector), suggesting significant urban penetration.
(11:20, Rybar, MEDIUM): RF VDV "Zapad" groups are reportedly "clearing a pocket" in the Borova direction (Kharkiv/Luhansk border), west of the Svatove-Kreminna line.
(11:21, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces have advanced into the urban center of Huliaipole and made further gains south of the settlement.
(11:13/11:33, PS ZSU, HIGH): Sustained KAB (Guided Aerial Bomb) strikes confirmed against Sumy and Northern Kharkiv regions.
(11:16, RBC-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has called for urgent consultations with a broad circle of European partners, indicating a strategic diplomatic pivot or urgent resource requirement.
(11:21, RBC-UA, HIGH): Hungarian PM Orbán stated that the "fall of Ukraine" would be a "catastrophe for Hungary," a notable shift toward prioritizing regional stability.
(11:32, Старше Эдды, LOW): Warning issued regarding potential instability of the Telegram platform, possibly indicating upcoming EW or cyber interference with regional communications.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy: The situation has deteriorated following the RF breach at Hrabovske (11:06). This corroborates earlier reports of forced deportations in the area, suggesting RF intends to establish a permanent presence or a deep buffer zone. KAB strikes continue to target regional infrastructure.
Kharkiv (North): High aviation activity. KAB strikes reported (11:33) targeting defensive lines in Northern Kharkiv to suppress UAF reserves.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad: Combat has transitioned to high-intensity urban warfare. RF claims of "clearing" Myrnohrad (11:06) indicate the FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) has likely shifted into the city's residential/industrial blocks.
Borova Axis: RF VDV "Zapad" is attempting to eliminate a UAF-held "pocket" (11:20) to straighten the front between Svatove and the Oskil River.
Lyman: RF units (Krasnyi Lyman direction) continue to receive civilian-funded materiel, maintaining sustainment for local probes (11:32).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Huliaipole: RF has achieved a tactical breakthrough into the urban area and is expanding its salient to the south (11:21). This increases the threat to the wider Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk junction.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Urban Combat Shift: RF is increasingly committing specialized units (VDV, Spetsnaz) to urban "clearing" in Myrnohrad and Huliaipole. This suggests a move away from pure attrition toward seizing key logistical nodes before the "Rasputitsa" (mud) fully halts cross-country movement.
Aviation Suppression: Continuous KAB strikes across Sumy and Kharkiv indicate a coordinated campaign to isolate the northern border and prevent UAF from redeploying units to the critical Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia axes.
Communications Interference: The warning regarding Telegram instability (11:32) may signal a planned RF cyber/EW effort to disrupt Ukrainian grassroots logistics and civilian-to-military information flow.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Adjustments: UAF has conducted a measured withdrawal from Hrabovske (Sumy) to secondary defensive lines following the border breach.
Strategic Diplomacy: President Zelenskyy’s call for "broad consultations" suggests the UAF may be seeking specific security guarantees or an immediate surge in air defense/heavy munitions to stabilize the collapsing urban fronts (11:16).
Morale/PsyOps: UAF-aligned channels are maintaining pressure on the Belarusian flank with satirical PsyOps (Bulbaphone) to distract/deter Belarusian involvement (11:21).
Information environment / disinformation
Hungarian Shift: Orbán's "catastrophe" narrative (11:21) marks a departure from typical neutral/obstructionist rhetoric, potentially opening a window for enhanced EU-level coordination.
RF Domestic Mobilization: Continued emphasis on "civilian help" for the front (Two Majors) indicates the RF continues to rely on semi-formal logistics to supplement state supply lines.
Moscow Weather: Severe snow/ice in Moscow (11:12) may marginally impact RU domestic logistics and command transit in the rear, though unlikely to affect frontline operations in the short term.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued RF urban expansion in Myrnohrad and Huliaipole. Expect an increase in KAB strikes on Kharkiv as RF attempts to capitalize on the Sumy border breach.
MDCOA: RF forces in Sumy exploit the Hrabovske breach to launch a rapid mechanized dash toward local rail-heads, attempting to sever the northern supply route while UAF is preoccupied with urban defense in the Donbas.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Myrnohrad FLOT: Urgent need for imagery or SIGINT to confirm the exact depth of RF penetration into Myrnohrad.
Sumy Breach Magnitude: Determine the size of the RF force that breached the border at Hrabovske—is this a localized raid or a multi-battalion tactical breakthrough?
Telegram Vulnerability: Assess if the reported Telegram instability is a technical glitch or a proactive RU cyber-blockade.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a significant RF escalation in the Sumy region and the transition of the Pokrovsk and Zaporizhzhia fronts into decisive urban combat phases. The weather in the theater remains a factor (mud/fog), but RF is mitigating this by focusing on paved urban axes (Myrnohrad/Huliaipole) and heavy aviation use.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Intentions: RF seeks to fully occupy the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk agglomeration and Huliaipole to dismantle UAF defensive anchors in the East and South simultaneously.
Adaptation: The use of VDV for "pocket clearing" in the Borova sector suggests a high-priority effort to secure the Svatove-Oskil flank.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture: UAF is currently in a "defensive-maneuver" phase in Sumy, trading space for time. The defense of Myrnohrad is the current center of gravity; its loss would compromise the entire Pokrovsk salient.
Requirements: Immediate reinforcement of the Sumy border and urban-specialized anti-tank/drone assets for the Pokrovsk sector.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The narrative is shifting toward European-wide strategic concern (Zelenskyy/Orbán), suggesting the "Ukraine fatigue" narrative is being actively countered by the reality of RF territorial gains.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Sumy Expansion: RF will likely attempt to seize high ground near the Hrabovske breach to bring local UAF GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication) under direct fire control.
Myrnohrad: Within 12-24 hours, expect intense street-to-street fighting in the industrial zones of Myrnohrad.
