(10:54, ASTRA/Ombudsman, HIGH): Confirmed forced deportation of 50 civilians from the Hrabovske area (Sumy region) to the Russian Federation following its recent capture.
(10:45, Two Majors, HIGH): Australia has completed the delivery of all promised tanks to Ukraine, finalizing a critical heavy armor transfer.
(10:37, RBC-UA, HIGH): Portugal announced a €50 million aid package specifically for the procurement of American-made weaponry for the UAF.
(10:55, UA Rada Security Committee, HIGH): Secretary Kostenko reports that 80% of AWOL (SZZ) cases are occurring within training centers rather than active combat units.
(10:41, Colonelcassad/Pushilin, MEDIUM): RF claims the "Kupol Donbassa" EW system intercepted 252 UAF drones over Donetsk, Makiivka, and Horlivka in the last 7 days.
(10:43, Rybar, LOW): UNCONFIRMED report of the seizure of the tanker Centuries carrying Venezuelan oil for China; potential maritime escalation/proxy friction.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Sumy/Kursk: UAF repelled 9 RF assaults. RF is actively depopulating border settlements (Hrabovske) via forced deportations (10:54). KAB strikes reported on Sumy (10:59).
Kharkiv (South Slobozhansky): High-intensity clashes near Vovchansk and towards Izbytske. RF aviation struck Izum (10:52).
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Luhansk):
Pokrovsk: Remained the highest intensity AO with clashes across 11 settlements, including Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk proper (10:53).
Kostiantynivka/Chasiv Yar: Clashes near Stupochky. A 24th Brigade tank successfully neutralized an RF firing point in a high-rise building despite taking an FPV hit (11:05), demonstrating local tactical resilience.
Lyman/Kupyansk: Renewed RF pressure toward Korovyn Yar and Stepova Novoselivka.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Huliaipole/Orikhiv: Clashes confirmed near Huliaipole and towards Prymorske. RF aviation targeting Preobrazhenka.
Kherson: UAF repelled 5 RF assaults on the left bank/islands (10:53).
Air/Maritime Domain:
UAV Threat: New wave of Shahed-type UAVs launched from the Black Sea toward Odesa and Mykolaiv (10:53).
Tactical Aviation: High RF activity in the North-East; KABs deployed against Dnipropetrovsk (10:50).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation-Led Attrition: RF is increasingly relying on KAB strikes to soften defensive lines across four separate regions simultaneously. This suggests a coordinated effort to suppress UAF logistics and reserve movement behind the immediate FLOT.
Electronic Warfare: The claimed success of "Kupol Donbassa" (10:41) indicates RF is prioritizing the protection of urban centers in occupied Donetsk against the high-density UAF drone strikes reported in previous sitreps.
Hybrid/Legal Tactics: The forced removal of civilians from Sumy (10:54) may be intended to create a "gray zone" or buffer area, complicating UAF efforts to retake territory without civilian collateral concerns.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Sustainment: Completion of the Australian tank delivery and the new €50M Portuguese fund provide essential mid-term resource certainty.
Defensive Operations: UAF continues to hold high-tempo defensive positions across all major axes, with specific tactical success noted in Chasiv Yar (24th Bde).
Internal Personnel Management: The disclosure that 80% of AWOL cases occur in training centers (10:55) identifies a critical systemic bottleneck in personnel readiness and morale before units reach the front.
Information environment / disinformation
Cognitive Ops (US Focus): RU-aligned and some UA channels are amplifying Epstein-related allegations against Donald Trump (10:19, 10:54). This is likely a preemptive attempt to discredit or influence future US mediation efforts.
Diplomatic Support: Cyprus (EU Council Presidency) and Norway have reaffirmed long-term support (11:01, 10:53), countering RU "fatigue" narratives.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued high-volume KAB strikes on Pokrovsk and Sumy. Shahed-type UAVs will likely transit Mykolaiv toward central/western targets within 3-6 hours.
MDCOA: RF tactical aviation shifts to strike "partially restored" Southern bridges (Mayaki) during the forecasted night fog to fully isolate Odesa logistics.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
AWOL Root Causes: Identify if high AWOL rates in training centers are linked to specific instructors, resource shortages, or psychological ops targeting recruits.
"Kupol Donbassa" Verification: Determine the actual efficacy of RF EW in Donetsk. Are UAF strike rates truly declining in this sector?
Tanker Seizure: Corroborate the Centuries tanker seizure. If confirmed, assess the risk of RF/proxy interference with commercial shipping outside the Black Sea.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is high, characterized by a massive RF reliance on guided aerial bombs (KABs) and persistent infantry assaults across the entire FLOT. Combat is most intense in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions. The Southern sector is seeing a transition to maritime drone and aviation-led harassment.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Logistics: Internal RU fraud investigations (МВД) suggest friction in the domestic support apparatus, though not yet impacting front-line munitions flow.
Tactics: RF is utilizing captured settlements in Sumy for forced civilian transfers, likely to clear ISR "noise" from local populations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture: Heavy armor replenishment from Australia is now complete.
Personnel: Training center retention is a critical vulnerability. Recommendations include a review of training center conditions and psychological support to reduce the 80% AWOL rate.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
RF continues to leverage Western domestic political scandals (Epstein/Trump) to create friction in the international support coalition. Pro-Ukrainian diplomatic moves by Cyprus and Norway provide a stabilizing narrative.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Donbas Pivot: RF aviation will likely focus the next 12 hours on the Pokrovsk-Dnipropetrovsk corridor to prevent UAF from shifting reserves to the deteriorating Huliaipole sector.
Sumy Escalation: Increased KAB activity in Sumy suggests RF is preparing for further localized incursions following the Hrabovske capture.
