(10:18, GenStaff ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed extremely high-density FPV drone engagements in Pokrovsk. Footage shows 20 FPV strikes within a 2-minute window conducted by the 25th Airborne Brigade.
(10:28, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active Russian tactical aviation sorties detected over the Eastern operational direction.
(10:30, Voin DV, MEDIUM): RF forces (Group "Vostok") claim "block-by-block" advances within Huliaipole. Concurrently, RU propaganda is targeting the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade (UA) to degrade morale.
(10:23, Butusov Plus, MEDIUM): Reports of RU serviceman Igor Shchetko deserting to Armenia, citing illegal forced contract renewals and immediate reassignment to assault units.
(10:24, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Escalation in Russian domestic internet censorship; the "Be My Eyes" service is now blocked, indicating a broadening of the RU "Sovereign Internet" firewall.
(10:35, Alex Parker Returns, LOW): Reports of large-scale social welfare fraud in RU (237m rubles), suggesting internal administrative friction and economic exploitation of the state.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donetsk):
Pokrovsk: Tactical situation remains critical. The previous warning of a "drone blockade" (09:59 sitrep) is validated by the sheer density of FPV strikes reported by the 25th Airborne (10:18). This indicates a "fire saturation" phase intended to isolate UAF forward positions.
Air Domain: RU tactical aviation activity (10:28) suggests coordinated air-to-ground strikes to support the drone-heavy attrition strategy.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Zaporozhye):
Huliaipole: RF claiming urban gains (10:30). Following the TOS-1A deployment reported in the previous daily report, RF is likely transitioning from thermobaric preparation to dismounted infantry "clearing" operations.
Northern Sector (Sumy): No further updates since the capture of Hrabovske; focus remains on the "Akhmat" 204th Regiment drone recon activity.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Human Capital Issues: The desertion of Igor Shchetko (10:23) corroborates intelligence that RF is relying on "shadow mobilization" and coerced contracts to sustain high-attrition assault groups.
Electronic Warfare/Censorship: The blocking of humanitarian/accessibility apps (10:24) suggests RF is willing to accept high collateral damage to civil digital infrastructure to ensure total information control.
Assault Doctrine: RF continues to pair high-density drone strikes with localized infantry probes (Huliaipole). The objective appears to be the systematic exhaustion of UAF tactical reserves.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: The 25th Airborne is effectively utilizing FPV drones to counter RU massed drone attacks in Pokrovsk, maintaining an active defense despite the high-intensity environment.
Information Defense: UAF command is managing narratives surrounding the 102nd TDF Brigade to counter RU efforts to portray the unit as undisciplined or combat-ineffective.
Information environment / disinformation
"Negotiation" Narrative: RU sources (Operatsiya Z, 10:32) are amplifying Western media (The Spectator) to push the idea that isolating Putin is a "mistake." This is a coordinated attempt to influence Western political resolve during the holiday period.
Compromat Operations: Ukrainian channels (RBK-UA, 10:19) are circulating Epstein-related allegations against Donald Trump, likely aiming to influence the perceived reliability of future US diplomatic mediators.
Internal Friction: Ethno-nationalist tensions in RU (Chechen vs. Russian social friction) continue to surface on nationalist channels (10:11), providing opportunities for UAF psychological operations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Sustained high-density drone and aviation strikes on Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Huliaipole under the cover of the ongoing fog in the South.
MDCOA: RF tactical aviation shifts from CAS (Close Air Support) to deep-strike missions against Southern logistics hubs (Artsyz/Mayaky) to exploit the "partial restoration" of supply routes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Huliaipole Verification: Confirm the extent of RU "block-by-block" advances. Is the 102nd TDF Brigade holding its primary defensive line?
Aviation Munitions: Identify the payload of tactical aviation active in the East (UABs vs. Kh-59s) to determine the intended depth of strikes.
Pokrovsk Attrition: Assess UAF FPV battery and frame reserves in the 25th Airborne's AO to determine sustainability against the current RU drone saturation.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is characterized by extreme drone density in the Donetsk sector and a renewed mechanized/infantry push in Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole). Weather conditions (fog) continue to facilitate RU infiltration while RU tactical aviation maintains pressure in the East.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RU is leveraging "coerced" contracts to fill assault units, suggesting a potential future drop in unit quality as veteran elements are depleted.
C2/Adaptation: The transition to unjammable FPVs (fiber-optic/optical) noted in the previous daily report is likely being operationalized in the current Pokrovsk "drone blockade."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Readiness: The 25th Airborne is engaged in a high-intensity "drone-on-drone" attrition battle.
Morale: Targeted RU info-ops against the 102nd TDF Brigade require immediate internal communication support to maintain unit cohesion.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The strategic narrative is shifting toward "diplomacy by exhaustion." RF is using both battlefield pressure (Pokrovsk) and psychological pressure (negotiation narratives) to force a tactical pause on favorable terms.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Huliaipole Breach: If RU claims of urban advances are true, expect a shift from dismounted infantry to light armored probes within 24 hours to exploit gaps.
Pokrovsk Saturation: The "20 FPVs in 2 minutes" rate is likely a peak pulse. Expect sustained but lower-frequency strikes for the next 6 hours as RU reloads and repositions drone teams.
