(10:04, Police Deputy Chief Biloshitsky, HIGH): Full restoration of traffic on the M-15 (Odesa-Reni) highway at the Mayaky settlement confirmed in both directions. This secures the primary GLOC for Western aid transit from the Danube/Romania.
(09:59, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Operational alert for Kostiantynivka; RF forces are approaching from three sides. Warning of an imminent "drone blockade" to sever remaining tactical supply lines.
(09:56, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): RF forces have confirmed the capture of Hrabovske (Sumy Oblast) south of Vysoky, following the previously reported expansion of the border security zone.
(09:41, RBK-UA/Lubinets, HIGH): Reported abduction of ~50 Ukrainian civilians by RF forces in the Sumy region, likely following the seizure of border settlements.
(10:01, Hayabusa, HIGH): Heavy fog conditions reported on the Kherson coastline and over the water. This significantly impacts ISR capabilities and favors small-unit infiltration.
(09:59, NM DNR, LOW): Claims of destroying a UAF ammunition depot in Dymytrov (Myrnohrad), which RF sources now describe as "surrounded." UNCONFIRMED (Encirclement status is likely RU propaganda).
(10:04, Kadyrov_95, MEDIUM): Deployment of "Akhmat" 204th Regiment ("Canada" group) confirmed in the Myropillya sector (Sumy), focusing on 24/7 drone reconnaissance.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy): The tactical situation is deteriorating. The loss of Hrabovske (09:56) confirms RU is successfully establishing a foothold on the Ukrainian side of the border. The presence of specialized "Akhmat" drone units in Myropillya suggests a transition from probing to persistent surveillance and target acquisition.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Pokrovsk):
Kostiantynivka: Now a critical priority. The threat of a "drone blockade" (09:59) suggests RF is employing a high-density FPV screen to isolate the city, mimicking tactics used in the final stages of the Avdiivka and Bakhmut campaigns.
Dymytrov/Myrnohrad: RF claims of encirclement are likely premature, but the reported strike on a munitions depot (09:59) indicates deep-strike pressure on the Pokrovsk logistic hub.
Southern Sector (Kherson/Odesa):
Kherson: Environmental factors (fog) are now the primary tactical variable. Heavy fog on the Dnipro River (10:01) restricts UAF thermal/optical ISR, creating a window for RU sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs) to cross or reposition.
Odesa: Logistics are fully operational following the M-15 reopening.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Innovation: Deployment of "container tanks" (improvised armored shells/turtle tanks) continues (10:01). While aesthetically crude, these remain effective at absorbing single-hit FPV strikes during assault maneuvers.
Assault Strategy: The shift toward "drone blockades" in Kostiantynivka indicates a refined RU doctrine: using electronic/loitering munition saturation to achieve encirclement-by-fire rather than risky physical maneuvers.
Economic Pressure: UA Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) reports RF 2025 war spending is 20% over budget (10:00). This suggests RF is cannibalizing domestic sectors to maintain the current high-intensity drone/missile production rate.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic Counter-Measures: President Zelenskyy is coordinating with the Norwegian PM (10:00) to secure continued support, likely focusing on AD munitions to counter the 1,300/week Shahed-type drone threat noted in previous reports.
Logistical Resilience: Engineering and police units successfully cleared the M-15 corridor, maintaining the flow of critical supplies despite the heavy strike environment.
Information environment / disinformation
RU Internal Morale: TASS reports that over 2/3 of RU regions have cancelled New Year fireworks (09:59). While framed as a "security measure," it reflects growing domestic austerity and the psychological impact of the war on Russian civil life.
Negotiation Framing: RU state media (TASS/Ushakov) is amplifying Western calls for dialogue (referencing Macron/The Spectator) to pressure the UAF into a ceasefire that favors current RU territorial gains.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: High-density FPV and UAV strikes on the Kostiantynivka supply routes. RF will attempt to exploit the fog in Kherson for localized amphibious or DRG probes.
MDCOA: A rapid RU mechanized push toward the center of Kostiantynivka, supported by the "Akhmat" drone units redirected from the North, seeking to capitalize on the reported drone blockade.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Dymytrov Status: Urgent verification of the "surrounded" status of Dymytrov (Myrnohrad). Identify if GLOCs to the city remain open.
Fog Duration: Meteorological assessment of how long the Kherson fog will persist; determine if RU is staging watercraft for a Dnipro crossing.
M-15 Security: Monitor for any RU "retaliation" strikes on the Mayaky crossing now that it is fully reopened to heavy traffic.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo is increasing in the East and North. The stabilization of the Odesa GLOC (M-15) is offset by the tactical loss of Hrabovske and the looming isolation of Kostiantynivka. Weather (fog) has become a primary tactical constraint in the South.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: RF is increasingly reliant on drone saturation to offset infantry/armor losses. The 20% budget overrun confirms a "total war" economic posture for 2025.
Tactical Adaptations: The capture of Hrabovske and the use of "Akhmat" drone groups in Sumy indicate a shift toward a permanent "buffer zone" strategy on the northern border.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Readiness: Critical concern regarding drone parity in the Kostiantynivka sector.
Logistics: The restoration of M-15 (Mayaky) is a high-impact success, allowing for the potential surge of reserves to the Southern or Eastern fronts.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The Kremlin is managing a dual narrative: project "victimhood" and "willingness to negotiate" to the West while conducting war crimes (abductions) and infrastructure strikes on the ground.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Kostiantynivka Decision Point: UAF must decide within the next 12 hours whether to commit reserve EW/AD units to break the "drone blockade" or prepare for a staged withdrawal to secondary lines.
Infiltration Alert: High probability of RU DRG activity in the Kherson sector between 2200L and 0400L due to heavy fog.
