(09:30, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): Movement restrictions on the M-15 (Odesa-Reni) highway at the Mayaky settlement have been lifted in both directions. This indicates the full restoration of a critical GLOC (Ground Line of Communication) previously hampered by strikes.
(09:14, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): Confirmed weekly strike totals: 1,300 loitering munitions (Shahed-type), 1,200 KABs (guided bombs), and 9 missiles launched against Ukraine, with the highest concentration on Odesa and the Southern region.
(09:12, Southern Defense Forces, MEDIUM): Reported liquidation of approximately 500 Russian personnel in the Southern Operational Zone over the last 24 hours.
(09:28, Slivochnyi Kapriz, MEDIUM): Infantry combat operations confirmed in the Kharkiv security zone (Zolochev - Sotnytskyi Kazachok sector).
(09:12, Slivochnyi Kapriz, MEDIUM): Positional combat reported in Sumy Oblast (Alekseyevka), confirming the expansion of the border conflict footprint beyond Hrabovske.
(09:14, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF SSO ("Whiskey Squad") executed a successful ambush on the Lyman axis, resulting in 6 RF KIA.
(09:25, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): RU Ministry of Defense claims to have struck Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises. UNCONFIRMED (Specific locations and BDA pending).
(09:34, Air Force UA, HIGH): New UAV ingress detected heading toward Sumy from the northeast; another UAV loitering west of Malokaterynivka (Zaporizhzhia).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): The conflict is widening into a broader "security zone" engagement. New infantry combat in Sotnytskyi Kazachok (Kharkiv) and positional fighting in Alekseyevka (Sumy) suggest RF is attempting to stretch UAF defensive resources across the entire northern border.
Eastern Sector (Lyman/Donetsk): High-intensity small-unit actions continue. UAF SSO effectiveness in the Lyman sector indicates a focus on disrupting RF tactical movements through ambushes.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Logistics: The reopening of the M-15 at Mayaky (09:30) is a significant operational success, restoring the primary route for Western aid and civilian transit to the Danube ports/Romania.
Zaporizhzhia: Recurrent UAV activity (09:28) near Malokaterynivka suggests persistent RF ISR mapping of UAF rear positions.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strike Tempo: The confirmed rate of 1,300 drones/week (approx. 185/day) represents a saturation-level threat designed to deplete AD interceptors.
Targeting Shift: RU MoD claims of hitting "military industry" (09:25) may signal a pivot from energy infrastructure to the domestic production base, particularly drone manufacturing sites.
Tactical Posture: RF is maintaining pressure on Belgorod border regions while simultaneously conducting probes into Kharkiv and Sumy to create "buffer zones."
Friendly activity (UAF)
GLOC Maintenance: Rapid repair and reopening of the M-15 (Mayaky) demonstrate high engineering resilience in the Odesa region.
Attrition Operations: Southern Defense Forces report high enemy casualty rates (500 KIA/WIA in 24h), likely due to a combination of FPV strikes and failed "car assaults" previously noted in the Stepnohirsk mud.
Special Operations: SSO units remain highly active in the East, focusing on high-value tactical targets to slow RF advances.
Information environment / disinformation
Cyber Warfare Narrative: RU sources (Operation Z, 09:28) are pushing a claim that NATO/EU have admitted to "total cyber war" against Russian civilian infrastructure. Assessment: This is likely a pretext for upcoming Russian state-sponsored cyber-attacks on European energy or financial sectors.
Diplomatic Threats: RU MFA (Zakharova, 09:07) is utilizing "holiday deprivation" rhetoric to undermine European public support for Ukraine.
Internal Morale: Footage of RU families requesting bodies of KIA soldiers (09:25) suggests localized domestic friction regarding the handling of casualties.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV ingress toward Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. Expect localized infantry probes in the Kharkiv security zone to continue under the cover of low visibility (if fog persists).
MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike on "military industrial" targets in Western or Central Ukraine, following the RU MoD's rhetorical priming this morning.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA on "Industrial Strikes": Urgent requirement to verify RU MoD claims of hitting military enterprises; identify specific facilities and damage levels.
Mayaky Status: Confirm if the M-15 reopening (Mayaky) includes heavy equipment/HET transit or is restricted to light vehicles.
RU-SK-NK Nexus: Further intelligence required on the "closed negotiations" (09:10) regarding the North Korean nuclear program and its link to munitions flow for the RU 2025 offensive.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield is currently defined by a "War of Saturation." Russia is utilizing massive drone volumes (1,300/week) to mask localized infantry probes in the North (Sumy/Kharkiv) and sustain pressure on Odesa. The reopening of the Mayaky GLOC is the primary tactical win for UAF in this reporting period.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: Russia maintains the ability to produce/acquire loitering munitions at a scale that challenges current AD density.
Tactical Adaptation: The move into Sotnytskyi Kazachok indicates an attempt to exploit the "Kharkiv security zone" to fix UAF reserves away from the Donbas.
Information Ops: The shift to "Cyber War" accusations against NATO suggests a transition to hybrid domain escalation.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Readiness: High. Successful restoration of M-15 and high attrition rates in the South indicate defensive stability despite the high strike volume.
Successes: SSO Whiskey Squad ambush (Lyman) proves that UAF retains tactical initiative in contested grey zones.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
The Kremlin is intensifying its messaging toward Europe, using both energy threats and "cyber-war" pretexts to frame Russia as a victim of NATO escalation.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Logistical Decision Point: With the M-15 open, UAF must prioritize the movement of heavy reserves to the Southern front before the next KAB/missile wave targets the Mayaky bottleneck again.
Strike Warning: The high volume of drones over the past week (1,300) suggests a "softening" phase likely to be followed by a concentrated missile salvo within the next 48-72 hours.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Logistics: Expedite the transit of high-priority military cargo via M-15 while the route is clear; implement 24/7 mobile AD patrols along the Mayaky-Palanca corridor.
Counter-UAV: Deploy additional mobile fire groups (MFGs) to the NE of Sumy to intercept the current UAV ingress (09:34).
Cyber Defense: Raise alert levels for critical infrastructure C2 systems following RU state media's "NATO cyber war" narrative.
