(07:34, RBK-Ukraine/ISW, HIGH): UAF has successfully advanced in the central part of Kupyansk, regaining tactical positions amidst ongoing urban combat.
(07:13, General Staff UAF, HIGH): Confirmed neutralization of 75 enemy UAVs (downed or EW-suppressed) out of the 97 launched overnight.
(07:20, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces have reportedly seized the settlement of Svitloye (DNR). UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources.
(07:30, Voin DV, MEDIUM): Heavy bombardment by the 11th Air Force and Air Defense Army (Group "Vostok") targeting UAF positions in the Eastern sector using FAB/KAB munitions.
(07:22, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Odesa is under a multi-day sustained "combined attack" involving ballistic missiles, cruise missiles (CR), and UAVs, targeting logistics and infrastructure.
(07:09, Moskva News, LOW): Russian banks have begun "mass blocking" large-sum transfers, suggesting internal financial instability or capital flight controls.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk Sector:UAF counter-offensive success. Contrary to the general trend of RF pressure, UAF has pushed into central Kupyansk. This indicates a high level of localized reserve availability and effective urban combat execution.
Lyman/Siversk Sector: RF 20th and 25th CAA continue high-intensity assaults toward the Dibrova–Ozerne line. The 3rd CAA's "masked" maneuver along the Siverskyi Donets bank remains a critical threat to the Siversk pincer.
Donetsk (DNR) Sector: Capture of Svitloye (if confirmed) suggests RF is widening its corridor of control south of Pokrovsk or toward Kurakhove.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The "Zaporizhzhia Front" remains a focal point for RF VDV assault detachments. Heavy aviation support from the 11th Air Force (Group Vostok) is currently "leveling" UAF defensive lines to facilitate the Huliaipole breakthrough.
Southern Sector (Odesa): Persistent multi-domain strikes (Ballistics/CR/UAV) indicate a strategic intent to permanently sever the M-15/Mayaki bridge logistics route despite UAF's "partial restoration" efforts.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Surge: The deployment of the 11th Air Force (Voin DV, 07:30) indicates a transition from infantry-led "meat assaults" to heavy ordnance suppression, likely to compensate for armor bogged down by mud (Rasputitsa).
Tactical Advance: The reported capture of Svitloye indicates RF is maintaining offensive momentum in the DNR despite high attrition rates and vehicle shortages.
Financial Controls: Mass blocking of transfers in Russia suggests the Kremlin is moving toward a "war economy" financial footing or attempting to prevent a bank run following recent Ukrainian deep strikes in the Caspian/Novorossiysk.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Kupyansk Initiative: The advance in central Kupyansk is a significant morale and tactical boost, disrupting RF plans to secure the Oskil river line.
Air Defense: Successfully managing a 77% interception rate against a saturation-level drone attack (97 units). However, the "ballistic/cruise missile" component mentioned in Odesa reports remains the highest threat due to limited kinetic interceptors.
Logistics: EU modernization of southern routes (Dva Mayora, 07:35) provides long-term sustainability for the Odesa/Mykolaiv axis, potentially offsetting the damage to the Mayaki bridge.
Information environment / disinformation
Legitimacy Undermining: Pro-Russian channels (Medvedchuk/Other Ukraine) are pushing narratives that any future Ukrainian elections without "refugee votes from Russia" are illegitimate (07:20).
Diversionary Narratives: Rybar (07:24) is heavily promoting "British interference in Georgia" to distract from RF battlefield losses and the Caspian Sea strike's psychological impact.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued heavy KAB/FAB strikes on Huliaipole followed by VDV-led urban infiltration. Odesa will likely face another wave of ballistic/CR strikes at dusk.
MDCOA: RF 11th Air Army expands strikes to Kupyansk to halt the UAF counter-advance, potentially using thermobaric (TOS-1A) systems in the city center.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
Kupyansk Center: Determine the exact extent of the UAF advance and whether the ISW-reported gains are being consolidated with heavy weapons.
Svitloye Status: High-priority visual confirmation (drone ISR) required to verify RF control of Svitloye.
Odesa Damage Assessment: Specific BDA on the latest ballistic strikes in Odesa; focus on rail/port infrastructure capacity.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is shifting. While RF maintains the initiative in Zaporizhzhia and the DNR (Svitloye), UAF has seized a tactical opening in Kupyansk. Environmental factors (heavy mud) are forcing both sides into urban-centric combat and heavy reliance on aviation/drones over armored maneuvers.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities: Russia is demonstrating a high degree of "multi-domain synchronization" in the Odesa attacks (Ballistics + UAVs). The use of the 11th Air Force indicates a concentration of VKS assets to support the "Vostok" group.
Logistics: Russian internal banking restrictions suggest that while the military is active, the domestic rear is under significant financial strain.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture: UAF is transitioning from "active defense" to "localized counter-attack" in the Kupyansk sector.
Constraints: Air defense stocks for ballistic interception are likely critical in the Southern Command area due to the multi-day intensity of Odesa strikes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Propaganda: Russia is using Viktor Medvedchuk to set the stage for a "political delegitimization" campaign against the Zelenskyy administration, likely intended to coincide with the "Miami negotiations."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Decision Point: UAF High Command must decide whether to commit reserves to exploit the Kupyansk gap or prioritize the defense of Huliaipole to prevent a breach toward Zaporizhzhia city.
Financial Trigger: If Russian bank blockages continue, expect a surge in internal RF "panic" narratives, which can be exploited by UAF PSYOP.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Tactical: Use the Kupyansk momentum to target RF command nodes that are likely in disarray following the unexpected UAF advance.
Operational: Shift mobile AD assets (SAMP/T or Patriot, if available) to cover the Odesa logistics hub against the reported ballistic/CR threat.
Strategic: Publicize the Kupyansk advance and the 77% drone interception rate to maintain Western donor confidence ahead of upcoming logistics route modernization.
