(21:46, Air Force UA, HIGH): New wave of Shahed-type UAVs detected approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south, indicating a multi-vector aerial assault (previous waves originated from the east).
(21:55, Operatsiya Z, LOW): Reported UAF drone strike on an electrical substation near Kursk, RF. [UNCONFIRMED]
(21:56, DeepState, HIGH): Tactical map updated, indicating confirmed territorial changes (likely in the Pokrovsk or Borova sectors, pending specific coordinate analysis).
(22:04, Tsaplienko/WSJ, MEDIUM): Strategic leak suggests Putin is advocating for Steve Witkoff as the primary US negotiator, perceiving him as a "convenient partner" to bypass more hawkish candidates.
(21:52, NgP Razvedka, MEDIUM): Evidence of coordinated fundraising and resource acquisition for drone warfare within pro-Russian networks in occupied territories.
Operational picture (by sector)
Southern Vector (Zaporizhzhia): The city is currently facing a pincer-style UAV threat. While previous reports noted arrivals from the east (Donetsk), new tracking confirms an axis of attack from the south (likely occupied Crimea or Kherson).
Donetsk Vector (Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad): DeepState’s map update (21:56) strongly suggests the Russian "Center" Grouping has achieved further tactical gains near Myrnohrad or the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
Russian Rear (Kursk): Potential UAF kinetic activity targeting energy infrastructure. If confirmed, this follows the pattern of asymmetric strikes to disrupt Russian border logistics.
Maritime/International: The detention of a tanker near Venezuela (21:50, TASS) indicates ongoing US enforcement of energy sanctions, which may indirectly impact RF shadow fleet operations.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Tactics: RF forces are diversifying approach vectors for loitering munitions. Simultaneous arrivals from the South and East are designed to confuse UAF radar and saturate Air Defense (AD) sectors.
Sustainment Adaptations: Pro-Russian channels are increasingly relying on "civilian" fundraising for drone acquisitions (21:52). This suggests a need to bypass formal logistical bottlenecks or a shift toward rapid, decentralized procurement of FPV/reconnaissance assets.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: The promotion of specific US negotiators (22:04) indicates an active RF influence operation aimed at the incoming US administration to secure a "soft" mediation channel.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Response: UAF appears to be maintaining pressure on Russian sovereign territory (Kursk) to force the diversion of Russian AD assets away from the front lines.
Air Defense: Active engagement of UAVs over Zaporizhzhia and the southern regions. National air raid alerts remain dynamic (21:44).
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Narrative: The WSJ report regarding Witkoff (22:04) is being amplified by Ukrainian sources to highlight Russian attempts to manipulate Western diplomatic structures.
Psychological Operations: Russian milbloggers (Colonelcassad, 22:03) continue to circulate drone footage of strikes on UAF positions, framed with "de-nazification" rhetoric to maintain domestic support and demoralize UAF defenders.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Intensified UAV and potentially missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia's energy and logistics infrastructure overnight. Continued grinding assaults by GV "Center" toward Myrnohrad.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated breakthrough in the Borova sector (Kharkiv) utilizing the "machine vision" drones previously identified to neutralize UAF tactical EW.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
URGENT: Physical confirmation of the Kursk substation damage to verify UAF deep-strike effectiveness.
TACTICAL: Analysis of the DeepState map update to pinpoint the exact locations of UAF withdrawals or RF advances in the Pokrovsk salient.
TECHNICAL: Determine if the UAVs arriving from the south (Zaporizhzhia) exhibit the same "machine vision" characteristics as those used in the Odesa waves.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment remains high-intensity. The RF is leveraging its "Center" Group momentum while expanding its aerial strike geometry. The introduction of multi-directional UAV paths toward Zaporizhzhia suggests a sophisticated mission flight plan intended to exploit gaps in UAF's regional AD coverage.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Group: Drone Operators / Pro-RF Networks
Capability: Rapid mobilization of funds for non-standard military equipment.
Intent: To saturate the frontline with FPVs and loitering munitions to compensate for the armor losses reported in previous cycles.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture: Ukrainian forces are in a "maneuverable defense" posture. The DeepState update suggests tactical realignments are occurring to prevent encirclement in the most pressured sectors (Pokrovsk).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Shaping: Russia is actively attempting to define the parameters of future negotiations by leaking preferred candidates through Western media (WSJ). This is a classic hybrid move to create friction within the US policy-making circle.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
MLCOA: RF will maintain high-pressure infantry assaults in the East while using the cover of night and multi-axis drone waves to strike Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.
Decision Point: If the Kursk substation strike is confirmed, expect RF retaliatory strikes on the Sumy or Chernihiv power grids within 24 hours.
