(21:27, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian "Center" Grouping (ГВ "Центр") reportedly launching assaults toward Dymytrov (Myrnohrad), with claims of operations extending toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.
(21:34, Tsaplienko/Flash, HIGH): Investigation confirms a drone carrying a Russian flag over Kyiv was launched by local Russian agents, indicating active domestic subversion cells.
(21:33, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Independent corroboration of the Russian incursion into Sumy Oblast and the abduction of ~50 civilians from a border village.
(21:24, Slivoviy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Localized Russian tactical advances reported in the Borova – Novoplatonovka sector (Kharkiv Oblast), suggesting a widening of the Kupiansk-Lyman offensive axis.
(21:07, Operativno ZSU, HIGH): UAF 30th Mechanized Brigade (2nd Battalion) successfully repelled a significant Russian assault; video evidence confirms high enemy attrition in winter conditions.
(21:25, Air Force UA, HIGH): Multiple waves of Shahed-type UAVs detected moving from Donetsk toward Zaporizhzhia city from the east.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Vector (Sumy): The situation in Hrabovske is confirmed as a hostile incursion with civilian abductions. This is transitioning from a "raid" to a potential localized occupation to create a "sanitary zone."
Kupiansk/Lyman (Borova): New pressure is mounting on the Borova-Novoplatonovka line. RF forces are attempting to reach the eastern bank of the Oskil river in this sector.
Pokrovsk/Dnipropetrovsk Border: The RF "Center" Group is aggressively pushing toward Myrnohrad (Dymytrov). Russian propaganda is framing this as an entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, though geolocated activity remains primarily on the Donetsk side of the administrative border.
Zaporizhzhia: The sector is under heavy aerial saturation. UAVs are being used in conjunction with the ongoing "Rhombus" district ground battles in Stepnohirsk.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Expansion of Maneuver: RF is utilizing "Center" Group momentum to threaten the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. This aims to trigger a UAF withdrawal from the Pokrovsk salient to avoid encirclement.
Hybrid Subversion: The launch of a flag-bearing drone in Kyiv by "local agents" (21:34) demonstrates that RF intelligence (GRU/FSB) maintains active sleeper cells or recruited assets in the capital for psychological operations.
Aerial Saturation: Continuous UAV waves from the east (21:25) suggest a coordinated effort to exhaust Zaporizhzhia’s air defense (AD) interceptors ahead of potential ballistic or cruise missile strikes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Resilience: The 30th Mechanized Brigade continues to hold lines effectively against "Center" Group probes, demonstrating high tactical proficiency in winter defensive operations (21:07).
Counter-Subversion: UAF/SBU intelligence has successfully identified the origin of the Kyiv flag-drone provocation, though the "agents" responsible may still be at large or under investigation.
Information environment / disinformation
Geographic Inflation: Russian sources (Colonelcassad) are prematurely claiming operations "in Dnipropetrovsk region" (21:27) to create a sense of breakthrough and panic.
Western Narrative Manipulation: RF channels are weaponizing Financial Times reporting on "inevitable war" (21:17) to portray European defense posture as a "self-fulfilling prophecy," aiming to weaken NATO's resolve and public support for Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV saturation of Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv. RF will attempt to consolidate the Hrabovske bridgehead in Sumy.
MDCOA: A breakthrough in the Borova sector (Kharkiv) could allow RF forces to threaten the H-79 highway, complicating UAF logistics for the entire Oskil front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
URGENT: Verify if RF "Center" Group elements have physically crossed the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border or if current fighting is confined to the outskirts of Myrnohrad.
TECHNICAL: Determine the launch site and control radius of the "flag drone" in Kyiv to assess the depth of the local subversion cell.
TACTICAL: Assess the status of the Oskil river crossings near Borova following reported Russian advances (21:24).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is expanding. The RF is no longer focusing on a single breakthrough point but is initiating localized "pressure points" across Sumy (Border), Kharkiv (Borova), and the Dnipropetrovsk border (Myrnohrad).
Weather: Winter conditions are stabilizing the ground in some sectors but increasing the thermal signature of stationary UAF positions, making them vulnerable to "machine vision" drones (see Previous Daily Report).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Group: GV "Center"
Objective: Seizure of Myrnohrad and entry into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Adaptation: Shift from pure armor thrusts to hybrid psychological strikes (flag drones in the rear) and "sanitary zone" border incursions to force UAF reserve dilution.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Focus: Defensive depth. The 30th OMBr remains a "fire brigade" capable of blunt-force repelling of RF storm groups. However, the requirement to monitor the Sumy border (Hrabovske) is pulling specialized Border Guard and SSO assets away from the primary Eastern/Southern axes.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Psyop: The combination of "liberation" claims in Sumy, flag drones in Kyiv, and FT-based fear-mongering suggests a coordinated RF strategic effort to project "inevitability" of Russian victory to both Ukrainian and Western audiences.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF continues incremental gains in Borova and Myrnohrad while maintaining a "distraction" presence in Sumy.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the Myrnohrad momentum to execute a deep pincer toward Pavlohrad, aiming to cut the primary supply artery for the entire Southern Front.
