(13:23, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirms a US proposal for a direct negotiation format involving Ukraine, the US, Russia, and potentially European partners.
(13:22, RBC-Ukraine/National Police, HIGH): The reported "Russian flag drone" over Kyiv has been officially debunked as a FAKE by National Police spokesperson Yulia Girdvilis.
(13:05, ASTRA/SSO, MEDIUM): UNCONFIRMED: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) claim a successful strike on a Russian warship and an oil/gas platform in the Caspian Sea.
(13:07, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Zelenskyy announced a direct inquiry with C-in-C Syrskyi regarding Air Defense (AD) failures in Odesa Oblast following persistent Russian strikes.
(13:03, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): Russian forces are reportedly increasing the density of UAV operations across all sectors to compensate for infantry attrition.
(13:09, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): DPSU "Phoenix" drone unit successfully interdicted Russian assault groups and logistics near Lyman.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Caspian Sea (New Theater):
In a significant expansion of the kinetic envelope, Ukrainian SSO claims to have struck maritime targets (warship and energy infrastructure) in the Caspian Sea (13:05). If verified, this represents a major leap in deep-strike capability, bypassing traditional Black Sea constraints.
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Zaporizhzhia: Localized combat is reported near Prymorske and the Huliaipole-Novozaporizhzhia axis (13:04, 13:19). While fortifications are being accelerated, reports emphasize that manpower shortages remain a critical vulnerability even with improved physical defenses (13:06).
Odesa: Internal friction has emerged regarding AD effectiveness. Leadership (Zelenskyy/Syrskyi) is currently auditing the command structure responsible for the Odesa region due to recent successful Russian penetrations (13:07, 13:31).
3. Eastern Sector (Donbas/Lyman):
Lyman: UAF drone units (DPSU "Phoenix") are maintaining defensive integrity through high-frequency FPV and drop-munition strikes on Russian tactical logistics (13:09).
Donetsk/Mirnograd: Russian sources claim a reduction in UAF shelling of Donetsk as RF forces push toward Mirnograd (07:36). This suggests an intensifying Russian effort to clear the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration.
4. Northern Sector (Kyiv):
The "Russian flag drone" incident from the previous report is now confirmed as a Russian Information Operation (IO) utilizing fabricated footage (13:22). The "terrorist attack" rumors (12:44) remain uncorroborated and are likely part of the same coordinated hybrid campaign.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Maneuver: RF is utilizing "Chekist Day" (Dec 20) to bolster domestic morale while maintaining high-pressure UAV operations (13:25). Pro-Russian sources continue to promote the "Avdiivskyi Skorokhod" narrative, suggesting high-tempo, small-unit infiltration tactics in the Donbas.
UAV Proliferation: The Russian MoD is explicitly highlighting drone-integrated operations (13:03). Combined with previous reports of robotic "Kuriyer" UGVs, the threat of unmanned saturation remains high.
Hybrid Operations: The CAR mural of Putin (13:14) and "humanitarian" New Year missions in occupied territories (13:20) indicate a sustained effort to project stability and international influence despite frontline volatility.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Expansion: Transitioning from Black Sea to Caspian Sea targets indicates a shift toward disrupting Russian energy revenue and rear-area naval security.
Strategic Maturation: The naval drone partnership with Portugal (13:06) and the development of election infrastructure for Ukrainians abroad (13:11) suggest a dual-track focus on long-term military self-sufficiency and political legitimacy.
Accountability Measures: The Zelenskyy-Syrskyi dialogue on Odesa AD indicates a "zero-tolerance" approach to recent logistical/infrastructure losses.
Information environment / disinformation
Kyiv "Flag" Debunked: The Russian "flag drone" was a digital/fabricated event. This highlights the risk of "demonstration" IO intended to cause panic in the capital.
Financial IO: Russian sources are amplifying Politico reports regarding EU aid (€3B/year) to frame Ukraine as a permanent financial burden on the West (13:21).
POW Management: The Ukrainian Coordination HQ is actively counteracting Russian disinformation regarding POW status by clarifying the "other sources" confirmation process (13:25).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued Russian UAV/KAB strikes on Odesa to exploit identified AD gaps while leadership reorganizes. Persistent small-unit probes in the Lyman and Zaporizhzhia directions.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A Russian "deep strike" escalation in the Odesa region or against energy platforms in retaliation for the claimed Caspian Sea operation.
Diplomatic: High-level preparation for the proposed four-party (UA/US/RF/EU) negotiation format will likely dominate the strategic planning cycle over the next 24 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL - MARITIME): Visual/BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) confirmation of the Caspian Sea strike. Identify the specific Russian warship class targeted.
(URGENT - AD): Determine if the Odesa AD audit results in immediate personnel shifts or the redeployment of assets from other sectors.
(TACTICAL - DONBAS): Confirm Russian proximity to Mirnograd city limits.
