Situation Update (2025-12-20 13:05 UTC)
Key updates since last sitrep
- (13:03, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): Ukraine and Portugal signed a joint statement establishing a partnership for naval drone production during PM Montenegro's visit to Kyiv.
- (12:58, BUTUSOV PLUS, HIGH): UAF drone units are successfully interdicting Russian attempts to cross the Oskil River to seize Kupyansk; multiple crossings/pontoons destroyed.
- (12:49, RBK-Ukraine/Shmyhal, HIGH): PM Shmyhal conducted a field inspection of massive defensive fortification construction in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, signaling a strategic priority on this axis.
- (12:44, Alex Parker Returns, LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Report of a "terrorist attack" in central Kyiv; currently assessed as likely disinformation or a mischaracterization of the "flag drone" incident.
- (12:41, Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, HIGH): Launch of KAB (guided aerial bombs) confirmed against targets in Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts.
- (12:40, Nikolaevsky Vanek, MEDIUM): Attrition of Shahed UAV wave; 7 of 15 "mopeds" remain active following interceptions over the Southern sector.
- (12:59, STERNENKO/HUR, MEDIUM): GUR reports extreme moral/logistical degradation in RF units on the Zaporizhzhia axis (claims of "cannibalism"); assessed as high-impact psychological warfare.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Kharkiv/Kupyansk Sector:
The enemy is intensifying efforts to establish a bridgehead across the Oskil River. Tactical reports confirm UAF is prioritizing the destruction of Russian engineering equipment and pontoon crossings. KAB strikes (12:41) are being used to suppress UAF defensive positions on the right bank.
2. Zaporizhzhia Axis:
This sector is currently the focus of high-level Ukrainian political and defensive attention. PM Shmyhal’s visit (12:49) confirms that fortification lines are being accelerated to blunt the predicted armored breakout. However, RF drone activity remains high in Prymorske (13:02), and a 74-year-old civilian was wounded in the Zaporizhzhia district (12:54), indicating persistent indirect fire and loitering munition pressure.
3. Donetsk Axis:
The 427th OPBS "Rarog" successfully repelled a Russian mechanized assault (12:41). RF forces are utilizing KABs (12:53) to degrade UAF hardpoints. Combat remains fluid near Konstantinivka, where RF-aligned sources claim successful strikes on UAF armored vehicles (13:00).
4. Northern/Kyiv (Rear):
Kyiv remains the primary target for hybrid operations. The "Russian flag drone" (12:51) continues to be exploited by RF propaganda to project UAF vulnerability. Claims of a "terrorist attack" (12:44) in the capital lack corroboration and are likely intended to induce administrative paralysis.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Maneuver: RF is attempting to force the Oskil River line to isolate Kupyansk. The use of KABs in conjunction with attempted river crossings indicates a coordinated effort to collapse the Kharkiv defensive line.
- Psychological Operations: The "cannibalism" reports (12:59) and "flag drone" (12:51) incidents suggest both sides are escalating psychological pressure. RF is focusing on "demonstration" strikes and flag-planting to influence Western/domestic audiences.
- Capabilities: RF maintains the ability to launch sustained KAB sorties and medium-scale UAV waves (15 units) despite earlier reports of munition depletion, likely supported by the recent loading activity at the Leningrad Missile Arsenal.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Active Defense: UAF drone operators (Rarog, 427th OPBS) demonstrate high proficiency in repelling mechanized assaults and interdicting river crossings.
- Strategic Partnerships: The deal with Portugal for naval drone production (13:03) addresses long-term maritime security and asymmetric strike capabilities.
- Fortification: Transition to a multi-layered "fortress" posture in Zaporizhzhia is visually confirmed by government leadership, intended to deter the MDCOA (Herasymivka breakout).
Information environment / disinformation
- Historical Grievances: RF sources (Operatsia Z, 12:36) are heavily emphasizing the Polish "Volyn Massacre" documents handed to Zelenskyy to exploit potential friction between Kyiv and Warsaw.
- Kyiv Instability: Dissemination of "terror attack" rumors (12:44) is likely timed to maximize panic following the flag drone PSYOP.
- RF Domestic Projection: Putin’s end-of-year "results" video (12:59) and charitable events (11:37) aim to project domestic stability despite SAR evidence of emergency munitions movement.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will continue KAB strikes on Kharkiv/Donetsk to soften defenses for evening mechanized probes. UAV saturation will likely focus on Zaporizhzhia to identify weaknesses in the new fortification lines.
- Most Dangerous (MDCOA): The "terrorist attack" narrative in Kyiv serves as a precursor to a kinetic "Deep Strike" targeting government buildings or critical infrastructure during the transition to the "Longest Night" (Dec 21).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- (URGENT - KYIV): Verify the "terrorist attack" claim. Cross-reference municipal emergency service (DSNS) reports with social media sentiment.
- (TACTICAL - KUPYANSK): Determine the exact location of RF pontoon attempts on the Oskil to coordinate HIMARS/Artillery interdiction.
- (LOGISTICAL - SOUTH): Monitor the Palanca/Moldova border crossing for congestion as heavy convoys divert from the severed Mayaki Bridge.
//END OF REPORT//
