(10:46, Reuters via Tsaplienko, HIGH): Putin’s envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, is reportedly en route to Miami for negotiations regarding Ukraine. This confirms the diplomatic pivot previously assessed.
(10:47, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF 11th Air Force (Vostok Group) conducted an aerial strike on Velykomykhailivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This represents a westward expansion of the RF air campaign.
(10:43, RBK-UA, HIGH): Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi met with a British military delegation to discuss urgent UAF needs for long-range strike capabilities.
(10:37, RF Milbloggers, MEDIUM): RF forces claim to have established full control over Svetloye (Donetsk) and reaffirmed control of Vysokoye (Sumy).
(10:56, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): High-level diplomatic engagement with Portuguese PM Montenegro in Kyiv; reinforces Western European support.
(11:03, Colonelcassad, LOW): Reported liquidation of UAF 17th Tank Brigade Company Commander (Capt. Sokolovskyi) in the Sumy direction. UNCONFIRMED.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Pokrovsk / Donetsk Axis:
Svetloye Capture: RF sources (10:37) claim the seizure of Svetloye. This tactical advance, if confirmed, facilitates the further isolation of the Myrnohrad pocket (Dimitrov).
Internal Stability: Pro-Russian sources (10:56) are circulating reports of treason charges against oligarch Timur Mindich (linked to Zelenskyi). This is likely a coordinated IO effort to distract from the tactical situation in the Donbas.
2. Northern / Sumy Sector:
Vysokoye/Border Dynamics: Reaffirmation of RF control in Vysokoye (10:37) and reports of targeted officer liquidations (11:03) suggest the "Sever" Group is transitioning from reconnaissance-in-force to a systematic "clearing" operation. UAF fortification reports (10:47) indicate an urgent effort to harden second-line defenses in this sector.
3. Zaporizhzhia / Southern Sector:
Huliaipole - Varvarivka: Localized combat activity reported (10:58). This suggests RF is probing the hinge between the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts.
Kherson UAV Activity: Repeated UAF Air Force warnings (10:41, 11:02) of UAVs entering Kherson from the east and moving west. This likely indicates pre-strike reconnaissance or "Shahed" loitering to exhaust local AD.
4. Strategic Rear / Dnipropetrovsk:
Deep Strike: The strike on Velykomykhailivka (10:47) is a significant move into the Dnipropetrovsk administrative region. This may target logistics nodes supporting the southern Pokrovsk flank or Western equipment depots.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Range Extension: The 11th Air Force's strike in Dnipropetrovsk indicates an increased willingness to risk airframes or utilize longer-range stand-off munitions (KAB-500/1500 with extended UMPK kits) to disrupt UAF reserves.
Consolidation for Negotiations: RF territorial claims in Svetloye and Vysokoye, occurring as Dmitriev flies to Miami, suggest a final push to maximize "ground truth" leverage before the talks begin.
Internal Security Focus: Today (Dec 20) marks the RF "Day of Security Service Workers." High-level messages (11:05) and record-high treason convictions (468 in 2025) indicate an intensified domestic purge to prevent internal dissent during the transition to a potential "negotiated" phase.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Fortification: PM Shmyhal and General Yakovets reported the completion of new defensive segments (10:47). This is critical for stabilizing the front if Myrnohrad/Svetloye fall.
Capability Requirements: Syrskyi’s prioritization of "long-range means of destruction" in talks with the UK (10:43) suggests a tactical shift toward deep interdiction to counter RF's armored assembly areas.
Economic Resilience: The "Made in Ukraine" program distributed 9.1M UAH for domestic equipment (11:03), indicating a sustained effort to insulate military production from supply chain disruptions.
Information environment / disinformation
Legal Destabilization: Heavy emphasis by pro-RF channels (10:56) on legal cases against Ukrainian elites (Mindich, Yermak, and a Kharkiv judge) is designed to project an image of a "collapsing" or "corrupt" Ukrainian state ahead of the Miami summit.
S-400 Narrative: Reports of S-400s returning to Russia from Turkey (11:01) aim to project NATO fragmentation and RF diplomatic success.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will intensify UAV and KAB strikes in the Kherson/Zaporizhzhia corridor to mask maneuver activity. Expect further claims of "cleaning" in the Myrnohrad (Dimitrov) pocket.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF "Sever" Group exploits the Vysokoye lodgment to launch a surprise mechanized push toward the H-07 highway (Sumy-Kyiv), threatening the northern logistics hub while UAF attention is fixed on Miami and Pokrovsk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(URGENT): Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the strike in Velykomykhailivka. Determine if the target was a rail node or an ammunition storage point.
(TACTICAL): Confirm the status of the 17th Tank Brigade leadership in the Sumy sector following RF liquidation claims.
(STRATEGIC): Monitor the arrival of Kirill Dmitriev in Miami. Identify any accompanying military officials, which would indicate technical ceasefire/disengagement discussions.
