(09:39, Оперативний ЗСУ/UK Intel, HIGH): UAF "Sub Sea Baby" maritime drone successfully struck a Project 636 "Varshavyanka" (Kilo-class) submarine in Novorossiysk; vessel reported heavily damaged and non-mission capable.
(09:38, Colonelcassad/MoD RF, MEDIUM): RF forces conducted a multi-domain strike campaign across 152 areas, targeting UA military industry, energy infrastructure, and UAV assembly sites.
(09:52, ЦАПЛІЄНКО/Reuters, HIGH): Senator Marco Rubio is confirmed to join the ongoing peace negotiations with the Russian delegation in Miami.
(09:36, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Specialized drone procurement initiated for an undisclosed, imminent UAF combat operation.
(09:41, ASTRA/Reuters, MEDIUM): US Intelligence assessment indicates Russian strategic intent remains the total seizure of Ukraine followed by incursions into the Baltic states.
(09:48, Старше Эдды/RT, HIGH): Former US congressional aide Tara Reade granted Russian citizenship, likely for use in ongoing Kremlin information operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Black Sea & Naval Domain:
Novorossiysk Strike: The use of the "Sub Sea Baby" (underwater or semi-submersible drone) marks a significant evolution in UAF naval strike capabilities. By targeting a Kilo-class submarine—a primary platform for Kalibr cruise missile launches—in its "safe" haven of Novorossiysk, the UAF has effectively extended its interdiction reach. British Intelligence confirms the vessel is incapacitated (09:39). This forces the RF Black Sea Fleet into an even more restricted defensive posture.
2. Rear Area / Infrastructure (UA):
Massive RF Strike Wave: RF MoD claims (09:38) suggest a coordinated effort to degrade UA energy and transport infrastructure, likely aiming to exacerbate the "Blackout Maneuver" identified in the previous report. The targeting of 152 areas indicates a surge in "Geran-2" and tactical missile employment to disrupt logistics ahead of the anticipated Southern breakout.
3. Strategic/Diplomatic:
Miami Negotiations: The addition of Marco Rubio (09:52) to the Miami talks signals an escalation in US diplomatic involvement. This coincides with a spike in kinetic activity as both sides attempt to establish "facts on the ground" before any potential ceasefire or line-of-actual-control is discussed.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Attrition: The RF is maintaining high-tempo strikes on UA "temporary deployment points" (TDPs) and UAV storage (09:38). This is a clear attempt to attrit UAF's primary defensive tool—the FPV and long-range drone fleet—before they can be deployed against the Herasymivka salient.
Strategic Intent: US Intelligence reports (09:41) confirm that despite the Miami talks, Putin’s long-term objectives remain maximalist, including future threats to NATO's eastern flank (Baltics). This suggests any current "peace" negotiation is likely viewed by Moscow as a tactical pause (Operational Pause) rather than a strategic resolution.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Naval Offensive: The Novorossiysk strike demonstrates that UAF retains the initiative in the maritime domain despite RF's attempts to isolate Odesa.
Targeted Procurement: Sternenko’s report on drone-specific funding (09:36) suggests a high-value operational window is opening, possibly a counter-offensive or a "spoiling attack" to disrupt the RF's 5th Tank Brigade in the South.
Information environment / disinformation
Defector Exploitation: The granting of citizenship to Tara Reade (09:48) is a classic "Active Measure" designed to discredit the current US administration and influence public opinion during the Miami talks.
Internal Consolidation: The Russian Duma's move to ban esoteric service ads (09:46) indicates a continuing trend of internal social tightening and "moral" consolidation directed by Putin.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will continue the heavy bombardment of energy and transport hubs to prevent UAF reserves from reaching the Southern and Eastern fronts. Expect a surge in Shahed/Geran activity tonight.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): Leveraging the disruption from the Mayaki bridge closure and the 152-area strike wave, RF launches a concentrated armored thrust toward Herasymivka before the Miami talks reach a formal framework.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(URGENT): Confirm the specific Project 636 hull hit in Novorossiysk to determine the impact on Kalibr salvo density.
(TACTICAL): Identify the 152 areas targeted by RF strikes; determine if the "M-15 bypass/Palanca" route was specifically hit.
(STRATEGIC): Monitor for shifts in RF 5th Tank Brigade posturing following the Novorossiysk strike (potential relocation of support assets).
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The operational center of gravity has shifted to Novorossiysk and Miami. The UAF’s success against the Kilo-class submarine provides critical leverage by degrading the RF's sea-based cruise missile capacity during a major strike wave. However, the RF MoD's claim of hitting 152 targets suggests a massive saturation effort aimed at breaking UA logistics before the Miami negotiations conclude.
Actionable Judgment: UAF must prioritize the concealment of "Sub Sea Baby" and "Vampire" assembly areas, as the RF MoD has explicitly signaled these as priority targets (09:38). Command should prepare for a significant RF escalation in the Baltics narrative (IO) to divert Western ISR assets away from the Southern Ukraine corridor during the upcoming 12-hour window.
