(09:08, STERNENKO/SBU, HIGH): SBU long-range drones successfully struck Belbek Airfield in occupied Crimea; two Russian Su-27 fighters were hit, with one confirmed destroyed on the taxiway along with its full ammunition load.
(05:32, Балу HUB, MEDIUM): UAF strike on an ammunition depot in Bryansk region (RF) resulted in massive secondary detonations continuing through the morning.
(09:10, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces reportedly destroyed a UAF pontoon crossing in the vicinity of Mayaki (Odesa Oblast) using Geran-2 UAVs, further complicating the M-15 corridor isolation.
(09:07, TASS/MoD RF, MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims the capture of Vysoke (Sumy region) and Svitle (Donetsk region). UNCONFIRMED by Ukrainian sources.
(09:07, RBK-Ukraine/7th Corps DSHV, HIGH): Ukrainian 7th Air Assault Corps reports an increasingly "difficult" situation in the Siversk direction, though positions are currently being maintained.
(09:23, Budanov/GUR, HIGH): GUR Chief Budanov emphasized that US ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) data is "critical" for UAF operations, warning that any loss of access would be catastrophic.
(19:48 [Nov 14 data in new stream], Bogdan/Eugene, LOW): Internal chat logs suggest a potential friendly fire or operational loss of a "Vampire" heavy hexacopter. UNCONFIRMED.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Crimea & Deep Strike Domain:
Belbek Airbase Strike: The SBU-led drone operation against Belbek (09:08) is a significant tactical success, degrading RF tactical aviation capacity in the Black Sea. The destruction of an Su-27 with a full combat load suggests a failure in RF airfield security and rapid-response air defense.
Bryansk Incursion: The strike on the Bryansk ammunition depot (05:32) indicates continued UAF capability to interdict RF logistics deep behind the border, likely aiming to starve the northern grouping of artillery shells.
2. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Siversk):
Siversk Axis: The 7th Air Assault Corps confirms high-intensity combat (09:07). This sector is likely facing a renewed RF push to flatten the Siversk salient while UAF attention is divided by the Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk crisis.
Svitle: RF claims to have "liberated" Svitle (09:10). If verified, this suggests localized RF tactical advances along the frontline in the Donetsk sector.
Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) Direction: RF MoD reports Buk-M2 systems intercepted HIMARS rounds (09:30), indicating a high density of RF air defense in this sector to protect their ongoing offensive maneuver.
3. Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv):
Vysoke (Sumy): RF claims of capturing Vysoke (09:07) suggest a widening of the "buffer zone" operations or a new tactical probe into Sumy Oblast. This follows the CAB waves reported earlier in Kharkiv.
4. Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Odesa GLOC Interdiction: The reported destruction of a pontoon crossing at Mayaki (09:10) is a direct follow-up to the destruction of the M-15 Mayaki Bridge. RF is systematically targeting all redundant crossing points to ensure the total isolation of the Odesa-Romanian border route.
Zaporizhzhia: Kinetic activity continues with a civilian fatality reported in Polohivskyi district (09:27) and ongoing air raid alerts (09:12).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Preservation vs. Aggression: Despite the loss at Belbek, RF continues to utilize tactical aviation for CAB strikes. The loss of an Su-27 on the ground may trigger a temporary "stand-down" for RF airframes in Crimea or a shift to more distant airfields (e.g., Primorsko-Akhtarsk).
Logistics Interdiction: The focus on Mayaki (pontoon) confirms a coordinated campaign to prevent UAF from establishing bypasses for the severed M-15 highway.
Course of Action: RF is likely attempting to maximize territorial gains in the Donbas (Svitle) and Sumy (Vysoke) before the Miami peace talks, using tactical "nibbling" to improve their "line of contact" bargaining position.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Asymmetric Deep Strikes: UAF is increasingly relying on SBU and GUR long-range drone assets (Belbek, Bryansk) to offset tactical pressure on the frontlines.
Defensive Resilience: The 7th Air Assault Corps (Siversk) and "VORON" Unmanned Systems Battalion (combat montages, 12-18 Dec) demonstrate high proficiency in FPV-based attrition, which remains the primary tool for slowing RF armored advances.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Messaging: Russian state media (TASS) is amplifying Budanov's comments on mobilization and ISR dependence (09:27) to project a narrative of Ukrainian internal collapse and external dependency.
Internal Morale: Ukrainian sources (Sternenko/RBK) are prioritizing the Belbek success to maintain public morale amidst the energy blackouts and difficult situation in the East.
Hybrid Narratives: Pro-RU channels (Basurin) are attacking Estonian border policies (09:23) to frame Western neighbors as "hostile to their own people," part of a broader effort to destabilize NATO-Russia border relations.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will continue the "Blackout Maneuver" in the south, likely launching more Shaheds tonight to exploit the lack of power for UAF radar/AD infrastructure in Mykolaiv/Odesa. Tactical pressure in Siversk will intensify.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A confirmed breakthrough in the Siversk direction combined with the claimed capture of Vysoke could signal a broader RF attempt to force a UAF withdrawal from the entire border region in Sumy/North Donetsk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Independent verification of the status of Vysoke (Sumy) and Svitle (DNR).
(URGENT): Imagery/BDA of the Mayaki pontoon crossing. Determine if heavy equipment can still bypass the M-15 bridge.
(TACTICAL): Confirm the location of the Russian Su-27s relocated from Belbek following the strike.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The operational focus has shifted to high-value target interdiction. While the UAF achieved a significant strategic win at Belbek, the ground situation in Siversk and Sumy is trending toward a "salami-slicing" tactical deterioration. Actionable Judgment: Command should immediately evaluate the necessity of a tactical shortening of the line in the Siversk sector if the 7th Corps' "difficult" situation becomes tenable only at the cost of excessive reserves. Priority must be given to restoring logistics in the Odesa corridor via the Palanca bypass, as RF is now targeting pontoons.
