(08:52, РБК-Україна/Senkevych, HIGH): Mykolaiv has suffered a total blackout following targeted RF strikes on energy infrastructure.
(08:56, Alex Parker Returns/Deep State, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the "zone of control" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in Myrnohrad has disappeared, suggesting localized collapse or withdrawal. UNCONFIRMED but consistent with previous reports of RF westward maneuver.
(08:42, UAF Air Force, HIGH): RF tactical aviation has launched a wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (CABs) against the Kharkiv region from the east.
(08:48, Minenergo, HIGH): Systematic power outages confirmed across Mykolaiv, Kherson, Donetsk, and Odesa oblasts due to overnight strikes on critical infrastructure.
(08:36, TASS/WSJ, MEDIUM): Reporting identifies five primary deadlock points in peace negotiations: territorial control, NATO membership, UAF force size, Russian language status, and control of the Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP).
(08:43, Colonelcassad, LOW): German Chancellor Merz’s office reportedly drafting legislation to grant the BND (Federal Intelligence Service) powers to conduct foreign sabotage.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk):
Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk Axis: The report of a lost control zone in Myrnohrad (08:56) is critical. If verified, this indicates that the RF incursion into Novopavlivka (noted at 08:06) has successfully compromised the defensive integrity of the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk node. UAF units may be forced into a retrograde movement to avoid encirclement.
Infrastructure: Energy strikes in Donetsk Oblast (08:48) are likely intended to disrupt UAF rail logistics and C2 (Command and Control) during this maneuver phase.
2. Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Kherson):
Energy Grid Collapse: The total blackout in Mykolaiv (08:52) and partial outages in Odesa and Kherson (08:48) represent a "Blackout Maneuver." By severing power in conjunction with the M-15 bridge destruction, RF is effectively paralyzing the Southern logistics hub.
Operational Impact: Water pumping, rail transport, and repair facilities for the Southern Defense Forces are now likely degraded or reliant on limited generator reserves.
3. Northern Sector (Kharkiv):
Aviation Surge: The launch of CABs (08:42) indicates RF is maintaining high kinetic pressure on Kharkiv, possibly as a fixing operation to prevent the redeployment of UAF reserves to the crumbling Myrnohrad front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Multi-Domain Attrition: RF has transitioned from localized tactical strikes to a regional infrastructure campaign. The synchronization of energy strikes across four oblasts (08:48) suggests a strategic intent to collapse the "hinterland" supporting the Southern and Eastern fronts simultaneously.
Course of Action: RF is likely exploiting the "pre-summit" window to create a reality of Ukrainian administrative and logistical collapse in the East to force concessions on the five friction points identified in the WSJ report (08:36).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Civil-Military Resilience: Kharkiv officials report unique medical successes (transplantations) under combat conditions (08:48), maintaining public morale despite the CAB threat.
Internal Accountability: The Office of the General Prosecutor has moved to prosecute a TCC (Recruitment Center) employee for the abuse of a Mariupol defender (08:52, 08:59). This is a critical move to preserve domestic legitimacy and military-civilian relations amidst high operational stress.
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and engaging CAB-carrying platforms, though the high volume of strikes on energy infrastructure indicates saturation of local AD (Air Defense) clusters.
Information environment / disinformation
"Long War" Preparation: RF sources are amplifying US statements regarding a "war in 2026" (08:38) to foster "Ukraine fatigue" and suggest that Western support is insufficient for a near-term victory.
Internal Sabotage Narrative: Pro-RU channels (Colonelcassad) are promoting the narrative of German-sponsored international sabotage (08:43) to frame the conflict as an escalating global hybrid war, likely to justify future RF "special measures" in Europe.
Hostile IO: Pro-RU accounts are circulating graphic footage of alleged abuse against "anti-SVO" bloggers (09:00) to intimidate internal dissent and project an image of ruthless control.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will maintain the CAB tempo in Kharkiv while consolidating gains in the Myrnohrad sector. Total energy loss in Mykolaiv will likely lead to a surge in Shahed-type UAV strikes tonight to exploit weakened AD radar coverage due to power failures.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF maneuvers from Novopavlivka toward the Dnipro Oblast border, seeking to bisect the front while UAF logistics are stalled by the Odesa/Mykolaiv energy and bridge outages.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Visual/OSINT confirmation of the current FLOT (Forward Line of Own Troops) in Myrnohrad. Is the "lost control zone" a complete withdrawal or a shift to urban fighting?
(URGENT): Assessment of the backup power capacity for the Mykolaiv and Odesa port infrastructure. Are the grain terminals and military docks still operational?
(TACTICAL): Verification of the "BND sabotage" document. Determine if this is a genuine policy shift or a Russian disinformation plant designed to strain NATO-German relations.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The operational tempo has shifted from attrition to systemic strangulation. The total blackout in Mykolaiv, combined with the loss of tactical control in Myrnohrad, indicates that the UAF is facing a multi-axis crisis. Actionable Judgment: The General Staff should prioritize the immediate deployment of mobile power generation and Starlink clusters to the Mykolaiv C2 nodes. In the East, a managed withdrawal to secondary defensive lines west of Myrnohrad may be necessary to preserve manpower before the Novopavlivka incursion closes the corridor.
