(08:06, Операция Z, MEDIUM): RF forces ("Vostok" Group/Otvažnyje) reportedly launched ground assaults on Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This confirms RF maneuver units have crossed the oblast border, expanding the ground war beyond the Donbas.
(08:15, РБК-Україна/Odesa OVA, HIGH): Official confirmation of the critical impact of the RF strike on the Odesa bridge (M-15/Mayaki). Logistics in the region are officially "complex," corroborating the severance of the primary GLOC to Romania.
(08:10, STERNENKO/Reuters, HIGH): US Intelligence reports indicate Putin’s strategic objective remains the full occupation of Ukraine and former Soviet bloc territories, signaling a long-term escalatory posture despite upcoming talks.
(08:21, TASS/US NATO Amb., HIGH): US Ambassador to NATO Whitaker states Ukraine must prepare for combat operations into 2026, suggesting a peace agreement is unlikely by the end of 2025.
(08:35, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF MoD confirms interception of 27 UAF drones overnight over Russian territory (Belgorod, Kursk, etc.), upgrading the previous report from LOW to HIGH confidence.
(08:23, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New threat axis identified: Shahed-type UAVs launched from the Black Sea targeting Pivdenne, Odesa region.
(08:17, Оперативний ЗСУ, MEDIUM): UAF "Ptyakhy Madyara" (Madyar's Birds) successfully utilized FPV drones to neutralize an RF infantry group in the open, demonstrating continued tactical drone supremacy.
(08:31, Сили оборони Півдня, HIGH): UAF Southern Command reports the liquidation of ~300 RF personnel and 60 units of equipment in the last 24 hours.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk):
Dnipropetrovsk Incursion: The assault on Novopavlivka (08:06) marks a significant westward shift in the RF ground offensive. This move likely aims to outflank the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad defensive node from the southwest.
Drone Warfare: The "Vartovi" (36th Marine Brigade Drone Bn) and "Madyar’s Birds" are heavily engaged in the Donetsk sector. The deployment of "Optoriz" (fiber-optic drones) (12:13, ВАРТОВІ) is critical for bypassing RF electronic warfare (EW) during these assaults.
2. Southern Sector (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia):
Logistics Strangulation: The Odesa OVA's confirmation of the bridge strike (08:15) validates the assessment that the Southern GLOC via the M-15 is severed. The redirection of supplies to the Palanca (Moldova) bypass is now a tactical necessity, not a contingency.
Aviation/UAV Threat: RF is leveraging the Black Sea corridor to launch Shahed drones (08:23) against coastal settlements like Pivdenne, likely to map air defense positions ahead of a larger strike.
3. Deep Strike Domain:
UAF Strategic Tempo: The confirmed 27-drone swarm (08:35) indicates UAF is maintaining pressure on RF border regions (Belgorod/Kursk) to disrupt the logistics of the RF "Vostok" and "Sever" groups.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Shift: RF is transitioning from tactical aviation strikes (Velykomykhailivka) to ground maneuver (Novopavlivka) in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. This suggests the "Herasymivka breakout" previously identified may be part of a broader multi-axis push toward the Dnipro River.
Hybrid Maneuver: Igor Strelkov’s warning regarding the "liquidation" of Transnistria (PMR) (08:32) should be monitored as a potential Russian "maskirovka" (deception) intended to force UAF to divert reserves from the Zaporizhzhia front to the Moldovan border.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Technological Adaptation: UAF drone units are successfully scaling the use of fiber-optic and "Heavy Bomber" (Baba Yaga) drones to maintain attrition rates despite the deteriorating logistics situation (08:28, 08:31).
Southern Defense: The Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine are successfully conducting high-attrition defensive operations, claiming a 5:1 equipment loss ratio in the last 24 hours (08:31).
Information environment / disinformation
"Long War" Narrative: Concurrent reports from US Intel and the US NATO Ambassador (08:10, 08:21) are likely being used to manage expectations ahead of the Miami summit.
RF Morale Op: RF channels are heavily promoting the "FSB Special Operations Day" and humanitarian fundraises (08:30, 08:32) to bolster domestic support for the winter campaign.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will intensify ground assaults on Novopavlivka to consolidate a bridgehead in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast before UAF reserves can be repositioned. A Shahed wave from the Black Sea is expected NLT 202200Z to exploit the Odesa logistics bottleneck.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF ground forces in Novopavlivka link up with an armored thrust from the Velyka Novosilka axis, threatening to isolate the entire Southern group of UAF forces from their primary supply bases in Dnipro.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Determine the exact unit strength and composition of the RF force assaulting Novopavlivka. Is this a reconnaissance-in-force or a full-scale regimental assault?
(URGENT): Verify the throughput capacity of the Palanca/Moldova bypass for heavy armor and ammunition convoys following the official confirmation of the Odesa bridge closure.
(TACTICAL): Identify the launch points for the Shahed drones in the Black Sea (sea-based vs. Crimean coast) to enable counter-battery/drone strikes.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The battlefield has entered a critical expansion phase. The RF incursion into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Novopavlivka) combined with the confirmed severance of the Odesa GLOC indicates a coordinated attempt to collapse the Ukrainian Southern and Eastern hinges simultaneously. Actionable Judgment: Command must immediately authorize the deployment of the 36th Marine Drone Battalion's "Optoriz" units to the Novopavlivka axis to disrupt the RF ground maneuver. All logistics traffic to Odesa must be rerouted to the Moldovan corridor immediately.
