(08:00, Воин DV, MEDIUM): RF 11th Air Force/Air Defense Army conducted bomber strikes against UAF positions in Velykomykhailivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This represents a westward expansion of tactical aviation depth.
(07:49, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed new waves of KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches targeting both Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts.
(07:59, Zaporizhzhia ODA, HIGH): High-level inspection of Ukrainian defensive lines in the Zaporizhzhia direction, confirming this as a "key priority" for current UAF engineering and reinforcement efforts.
(08:02, DNR Militia, MEDIUM): RF 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly struck UAF mortar positions and UAV pilot antennas in Rusyn Yar (Donetsk sector).
(07:36, Операция Z, MEDIUM): RF claims destruction of fortified UAF positions in the residential sector of Mirnohrad (Donetsk sector).
(07:55, Военкор Котенок, LOW): RF claims to have intercepted 27 UAF drones overnight over Russian territory. (UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Kharkiv):
Intensity: High-intensity KAB strikes are now multi-directional (Kharkiv and Donetsk).
Mirnohrad/Pokrovsk: RF is increasing pressure on the Mirnohrad outskirts (07:36), utilizing urban combat footage to support claims of advancement.
Counter-UAV Ops: RF targeting of UAV antennas in Rusyn Yar (08:02) aligns with earlier reports of a coordinated hunt for Ukrainian drone pilots and C2 nodes.
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
Zaporizhzhia Defensive Posture: The high-level inspection (07:59) suggests the UAF General Staff is prioritizing the hardening of the Zaporizhzhia line, likely in anticipation of the Herasymivka armored breakout previously identified as a High-Confidence threat (MLCOA).
Logistics: No update on the M-15 Mayaki bridge; the Palanca/Moldova bypass remains the primary sustainment route.
3. Deep Strike / Strategic Domain:
Tactical Aviation Expansion: The strike on Velykomykhailivka (Dnipropetrovsk) indicates RF tactical aviation is pushing further into the Ukrainian rear to interdict reserves moving toward the Donbas or Zaporizhzhia fronts.
UAF Counter-Strikes: If the claim of 27 drones over RF (07:55) is accurate, it suggests UAF is maintaining a high tempo of deep-strike harassment despite domestic air defense challenges.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (MLCOA): RF is systematically attempting to degrade Ukrainian UAV capabilities by targeting ground-based antennas (Rusyn Yar) while simultaneously using KABs to flatten fortified positions in Mirnohrad and Kharkiv.
Aviation Adaptation: The use of the 11th Air Force/Air Defense Army (Vostok Group) for strikes into Dnipropetrovsk suggests a coordinated effort to suppress the UAF's second-echelon defensive lines.
Logistics/Munitions: The previously identified spike at the Leningrad Missile Arsenal (SAR Score 36.52) suggests these ballistic/cruise assets are likely in transit to support a major strike window during the Miami summit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: 46th Separate Air Mobile Brigade (46 OAMBr) remains operationally active and is documenting "explosive races" (likely FPV drone engagements) against RF maneuver units (07:48).
Resource Constraints: Multiple high-profile volunteer/unit channels (STERNENKO, Operativnyi ZSU) report a slowdown in crowdfunding/donations (07:45, 07:50), potentially indicating domestic economic fatigue or logistics-driven collection delays.
Information environment / disinformation
Election Narrative: RBK-Ukraine/CVK reports on the "cost of elections" (07:54) are being amplified. This is likely intended to foster internal political debate and friction regarding the legitimacy of martial law extensions.
Diplomatic Noise: Russian milbloggers are increasingly referencing "Macron’s tips" and "Putin’s position" (07:40, 07:48) to create an atmosphere of imminent but RF-favorable negotiations, aimed at weakening UAF resolve before the Miami talks.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will launch a heavy evening wave of KABs and Shahed-type UAVs to mask the movement of the 5th Tank Brigade toward the Herasymivka breakout point.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF utilizes tactical aviation to strike the Zaporizhzhia defensive inspection sites or key C2 hubs identified during recent UAF high-level movements.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(URGENT): Verify the operational status of UAF UAV pilot nodes in the Rusyn Yar/Kostiantynivka sector following the reported 242nd MRR strike.
(TACTICAL): Confirm the extent of UAF drone penetration into RF territory; identify specific targets (energy vs. military) to assess current UAF strategic priorities.
(LOGISTICS): Monitor the flow of heavy armor toward the Gaychur River line; identify if the "Leningrad Arsenal" munitions have reached forward deployment zones.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The battlefield is currently characterized by asymmetric pressure. While RF is using "brute force" aviation (KABs/Bombers) to strike deeper into Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk, they are also employing "surgical" electronic and kinetic strikes against UAF drone infrastructure (antennas). The high-level inspection in Zaporizhzhia confirms the criticality of that sector. Actionable Judgment: UAF units in the Rusyn Yar/Mirnohrad axis must immediately implement antenna remoting and displacement TTPs. Engineering units in Zaporizhzhia should accelerate obstacle construction NLT 201600Z to meet the predicted armored breakout window.
