(06:46, General Staff UAF/SSO, HIGH): Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) and General Staff confirmed successful strikes against a Russian military warship and an oil production platform in the Caspian Sea.
(06:51, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): UAF precision strike successfully neutralized a Russian RSP-6M2 radar station in the Krasnosilske area of occupied Crimea.
(07:03, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) intercepted or suppressed 31 Russian UAVs during the overnight wave as of 09:00 local time.
(06:50, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) has added additional rail capacity from Odesa and Kyiv to Chisinau (Moldova).
(07:03, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports emerging of the US lifting specific sanctions on suppliers to the Russian Military-Industrial Complex (VPK); currently assessed as a potential diplomatic friction point.
(06:58, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Video evidence confirms the 414th Brigade ("Madyar's Birds") is conducting high-intensity "drone safari" operations against Russian infantry in the Pokrovsk direction.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Odesa/Bessarabia/Crimea):
Logistics Adaptation: The activation of additional rail groups to Chisinau (06:50) confirms the transition to the Palanca/Moldova bypass following the severance of the Mayaki Bridge (M-15). This ensures a continued (though constrained) GLOC for Western aid.
Air Defense/UAV Ingress: Multiple groups of Russian UAVs continue to approach Pivdenne/Odesa from the Black Sea (06:52, 06:54). AD remains actively engaged.
Crimean Attrition: The destruction of the RSP-6M2 radar in Krasnosilske (06:51) degrades Russian local air picture and situational awareness over the northwestern Black Sea.
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas):
Tactical UAS Dominance: UAF is increasingly relying on elite UAS units (414th Brigade) to compensate for infantry pressure in the Pokrovsk sector (06:58).
RF Force Concentration: Dempster-Shafer analysis suggests a significant concentration of the 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment in the Dobropilsky salient (Belief: 0.11), supported by active Russian fundraising for this specific unit (07:03).
3. Northern Sector (Kharkiv):
Sustained Kinetic Pressure: Local authorities report strikes on three settlements and "high-intensity ground combat" along key sectors (06:36). RF maintains pressure here to pin UAF reserves away from the Pokrovsk main effort.
4. Strategic/Deep Strike Domain:
Caspian Sea Engagement: The confirmed strike on both a ship and an oil extraction platform (06:46, 06:53) signals a multi-domain offensive against RF's economic and military infrastructure in the Caspian basin, previously considered a "rear sanctuary."
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Enemy Course of Action (Tactical): RF is utilizing a "saturation-then-maneuver" approach. The 31+ drones are intended to deplete AD stocks before possible cruise missile strikes.
Technological Adaptation: RF is prioritizing the sustainment of the 33rd Motor Rifle Regiment with specialized equipment (07:03). Continued reliance on infantry "meat assaults" in Pokrovsk is being countered by UAF FPV swarms.
Logistics Status: The reports of US sanctions relief for VPK suppliers (07:03) suggest Russia may be seeking to replenish electronic components for precision munitions. (UNCONFIRMED - LOW CONFIDENCE).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Reach: UAF has effectively neutralized the "Caspian Sanctuary." By hitting an oil platform alongside a warship, the SSO is targeting the Kremlin's revenue streams simultaneously with its military assets.
AD Efficiency: Maintaining a high interception rate (31 UAVs) despite the geographic breadth of attacks.
Resilience: National "Minute of Silence" (06:58-07:00) observed across all official channels (GS AFU, KMVA, Zaporizhzhia OVA) indicates high internal cohesion and morale maintenance despite tactical pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Internal Morale: Russian sources are focusing on "Security Services Day" (07:04) and the opening of Christmas markets in Moscow (06:55) to project a sense of normalcy and stability to the domestic population.
Diplomatic Friction: The narrative regarding US sanctions removal (07:03) is likely being amplified by pro-RF channels to create a perception of waning Western support ahead of the Miami summit.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will launch a retaliatory strike against Odesa port infrastructure or the newly activated Chisinau rail link to disrupt the bypass logistics. Expect continued ground pressure in the Pokrovsk/Dobropillia sector.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF utilizes the degraded radar coverage in Crimea (post-RSP-6M2 strike) to mask a localized tactical counter-offensive or a significant missile launch from the Black Sea fleet.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(URGENT): Verify the technical specifications of the Caspian oil platform strike. Was it a total destruction or localized damage?
(TECHNICAL): Confirm the veracity of the "US Sanctions Relief" claim. If true, identify which specific VPK components are no longer restricted.
(TACTICAL): Assess the current throughput capacity of the Kyiv/Odesa-Chisinau rail link. Can it sustain heavy armored vehicle transport or is it limited to container/personnel transit?
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The battlefield has expanded into the Caspian theater, significantly complicating Russian naval and energy security. The synchronization of the Crimean radar strike with the Caspian operation suggests a coordinated UAF effort to blind and then strike deep-seated assets. Actionable Judgment: UAF logistics are successfully pivoting to the Moldovan rail bypass. RF is likely to target this new GLOC within the next operational cycle. Southern command must prioritize AD assets around the Odesa-Moldova rail nodes.
