(06:29, General Staff UAF, HIGH): UAF successfully struck a Russian military warship and other strategic objects in the Caspian Sea. This represents a significant geographic expansion of Ukrainian deep-strike capabilities.
(06:27, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): General Staff reports 45 out of 165 total combat engagements over the last 24 hours occurred specifically in the Pokrovsk direction, confirming it as the primary RF main effort.
(06:34, ASTRA, HIGH): Power outages confirmed in three districts of Mykolaiv region following overnight Russian Shahed strikes targeting energy infrastructure.
(06:29, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New wave of enemy UAVs detected approaching Odesa from the Black Sea, maintaining sustained pressure on southern port cities.
(06:06, Operatsiya Z/US State Dept, MEDIUM): Reports circulating that the US Secretary of State believes the Ukraine crisis could be "settled by the end of the year," coinciding with the Miami summit.
(06:08, Zaporizhzhia OVA, MEDIUM): Air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia have been cleared; however, the threat from VDV maneuvers near Stepnohirsk remains the baseline operational concern.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia):
Infrastructure Attrition: The Mykolaiv power grid has sustained localized failures (Bashtanka, Voznesensk districts) due to drone strikes (06:34). This complicates the logistics of the Palanca bypass mentioned in the previous report.
Maritime Threat: Persistent UAV ingress from the Black Sea toward Odesa (06:29) indicates a coordinated effort to suppress Air Defense (AD) before further strikes on port infrastructure.
Zaporizhzhia: A temporary tactical pause in air activity (06:08), but RF "Vostok" grouping (14th Spetsnaz) remains active in counter-UAS roles, specifically targeting heavy "Baba Yaga" drones (06:30).
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas):
Kinetic Epicenter: Pokrovsk accounts for nearly 30% of all frontline clashes (06:27). RF forces are maintaining a high-intensity assault rate to achieve a breakthrough before the Miami talks conclude.
Counter-Drone Adaptation: RF forces (14th Spetsnaz) are reporting increased success in kinetic interception of UAF heavy drones, indicating improved tactical EW-kinetic integration at the platoon level (06:30).
3. Strategic/Deep Strike Domain:
Caspian Sea Engagement: The strike on a Russian warship in the Caspian Sea (06:29) is a major escalation in UAF's "active defense" strategy. By striking the Caspian Flotilla, UAF is targeting the launch platforms for Kalibr cruise missiles, potentially degrading RF's long-range strike capacity.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Strategic): RF is utilizing "Mirror Responses" (06:05) in the economic domain—threatening nationalization of Western assets—to create leverage for the Dmitriev-Trump talks in Miami.
Logistics/Sustainment: Pro-RF sources are emphasizing "Frontline Supply" missions (06:18), likely to mask the strain caused by UAF's deep strikes on rail and arsenals (e.g., Leningrad Arsenal spike).
Tactical Adaptation: RF is increasingly focusing on C-UAS (Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems) to protect the 5th Army’s sector (06:30), suggesting UAF drone swarms are significantly hindering RF ground maneuver.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Reach: UAF has demonstrated the ability to project power thousands of kilometers into the Caspian Sea (06:29, 06:33), forcing RF to reconsider the "safe haven" status of its eastern maritime assets.
Defensive Resilience: Despite 165 daily engagements, UAF maintains a cohesive line in the Pokrovsk sector, though the intensity of the 45 clashes there suggests extreme resource consumption (06:27).
Information environment / disinformation
Election Narrative: Both RU and UA sources are reporting on the legal feasibility of Ukrainian elections (06:26, 06:33). RF channels (Dnevnik Desantnika) are framing this as "Ukraine finding excuses," likely an IO campaign to undermine President Zelenskyy’s legitimacy during the Miami summit.
Diplomatic Pressure: The framing of a "settlement by year-end" (06:06) creates a ticking clock designed to induce haste in Ukrainian military decision-making.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of Odesa and Mykolaiv to prevent the restoration of the power grid. High-intensity "probing" attacks in the Pokrovsk sector will continue to test UAF ammunition reserves.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "All Clear" in Zaporizhzhia to launch a surprise mechanized dash toward the Gaychur River line, exploiting the focus on Odesa's grid failure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the Caspian Sea strike. Which specific vessel was hit, and does this affect Kalibr launch capacity?
(URGENT): Stability of the Palanca/Moldova bypass. With Mykolaiv power out, are rail and road signals/pumps operational for heavy fuel/ammo transit?
(TECHNICAL): Assess the efficacy of RF's "14th Spetsnaz" C-UAS tactics (06:30). Is there a new technical vulnerability in UAF heavy-lift drones?
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The conflict has entered a strategic transition phase. The UAF strike on the Caspian Sea is a deliberate asymmetrical move to broaden the "cost" of the war for the Kremlin, timed specifically to coincide with the Miami summit. By demonstrating that no RF naval asset is safe, Ukraine is attempting to counter the narrative of RF's "successful year" (06:34). Actionable Judgment: UAF should expect immediate RF "retaliation strikes" on Odesa/Mykolaiv energy hubs in the next 6 hours as a response to the Caspian operation. Units in Pokrovsk must prepare for a "final push" attempt as RF seeks a tactical victory to present at the Miami negotiating table.
