(05:36, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Reuters reports no trilateral contacts involving Ukraine are planned for the Miami summit. This suggests a bilateral RF-US surrogate channel (Dmitriev/Witkoff/Kushner) excluding Kyiv.
(06:05, TASS, HIGH): RF envoy Kirill Dmitriev confirmed he is in transit to Miami, synchronizing with Donald Trump’s arrival in Florida (05:42, ASTRA).
(06:05, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian Shahed-type UAVs detected in the Black Sea, maneuvering toward Chornomorske and Pivdenne (Odesa region).
(05:38, Zaporizhzhia OVA, MEDIUM): Air raid alerts and emergency warnings issued for the region, coinciding with reported VDV maneuvers near Stepnohirsk.
(05:46, Операция Z, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report sustained UAF UAV attacks against Russian border regions, indicating no let-up in the Ukrainian "deep strike" campaign.
(06:03, Colonelcassad, LOW): Claims of pervasive fiber-optic cable deployment in Krasnyi Lyman; however, internal analysis notes a contradiction between text and visual evidence. (UNCONFIRMED).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia):
Maritime/Port Pressure: The movement of UAVs toward Chornomorske and Pivdenne (06:05) indicates a shift in targeting toward the remaining operational port infrastructure. This follows the physical severance of the Mayaki Bridge (M-15) and the paralyzed transit in Mykolaiv.
Zaporizhzhia/Stepnohirsk: The situation remains critical. The VDV pincer maneuver reported earlier is likely supported by the "reconnaissance missions" identified in recent belief analysis (Score 0.12). Air alerts (05:38) suggest active prep-fires or drone swarms supporting the ground assault.
2. Eastern Sector (Krasnyi Lyman/Pokrovsk):
Krasnyi Lyman: Reports of fiber-optic drone infrastructure are circulating (06:03), but the evidence is inconsistent. This may be a disinformation attempt to exaggerate RF technological adaptation or a genuine logistical shift that has not yet been visually confirmed.
Donbas Attrition: No change to the high-attrition baseline. The focus remains on the RF's attempt to achieve a breakout at Herasymivka before 0400Z tomorrow.
3. Northern/Border/Deep Strike:
UAF Counter-Strike: UAF maintains pressure on RF logistics and AD (05:46). This serves as a vital "distractor" to keep RF assets from concentrating fully on the Stepnohirsk-Zaporizhzhia axis.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Tactical): The RF is attempting to isolate the Odesa/Pivdennyi port cluster via air-launched assets (06:05) while the ground forces attempt to collapse the Stepnohirsk salient.
Logistics: SAR imagery of the Leningrad Missile Arsenal (Daily Report, Score 36.52) suggests a massive influx of munitions is imminent, likely intended to sustain this high-tempo offensive through the Miami summit period.
Command and Control: Putin’s public address to security services (05:47) and the ongoing purge of "Espanola" units suggest a tightening of central MoD control over all frontline operations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and intercepting maritime-based UAV threats (06:05).
Symmetric Pressure: Sustained drone strikes into RF territory aim to create domestic political friction for the RF emissaries currently landing in Miami.
Information environment / disinformation
Miami Narrative Split: A significant gap has emerged between Western/UA reporting ("No trilateral talks," 05:36) and RF/Alt-Media reporting ("Negotiations on Ukraine," 05:42). The RF is attempting to frame the Miami meeting as a formal peace negotiation to demoralize UAF defenders, whereas it appears to be a back-channel emissary meeting.
Historical Revisionism: Sources like "Dnevnik Desantnika" (05:39) are pushing ideological content regarding the collapse of the USSR, likely to reinforce nationalist resolve during the "Kinetic-Diplomatic Sprint."
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will launch a concentrated strike on Odesa-area port facilities (Chornomorske/Pivdenne) to demonstrate "total blockade" capability during the Miami talks. Ground forces will attempt to finalize the seizure of Stepnohirsk.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): Use of the high-readiness munitions from the Leningrad Arsenal for a "saturation strike" on the Gaychur River line, attempting to force a collapse of the Zaporizhzhia defense before Monday morning.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Confirmation of the status of the Pivdenne/Chornomorske port infrastructure following the current UAV wave.
(URGENT): Clarify the "fiber optic" situation in Krasnyi Lyman. Is this a new EW-resistant drone corridor, or a localized propaganda narrative?
(STRATEGIC): Determine if the "no trilateral talks" report (05:36) implies Ukraine has been formally sidelined or if Kyiv is maintaining a separate, undisclosed channel to the Miami participants.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The operational tempo is now dictated by the Miami Clock. The RF is accelerating strikes on Southern GLOCs (M-15 bridge) and maritime hubs (Chornomorske/Pivdenne) to present Ukraine as a "logistically unviable" entity during the Dmitriev-Trump talks. Actionable Judgment: The arrival of RF emissaries in Florida (06:05) marks the start of a 48-hour window where the RF will maximize kinetic "shocks" (VDV in Stepnohirsk, Port strikes) to force concessions. UAF must demonstrate GLOC resilience (via Palanca bypass) and maritime AD success to maintain negotiating leverage.
