(05:16, Операция Z, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources claim VDV (Airborne) units have occupied the majority of Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia Sector) and are attempting a pincer maneuver. This represents a significant potential escalation from the previously reported "stalled" status.
(05:23, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): RF envoy Kirill Dmitriev has reportedly departed for Miami to meet with Witkoff and Kushner. This confirms the direct involvement of high-level Russian financial/diplomatic emissaries in the upcoming summit.
(05:08, ASTRA/RF MoD, HIGH): RF Ministry of Defense reports 27 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted over Russian regions and the Azov Sea, indicating a wider-scale UAF "deep strike" effort than previously identified in Bryansk alone.
(05:26, RBC-Ukraine/Senkevich, HIGH): Mykolaiv public transit (trams/trolleybuses) is paralyzed following overnight drone strikes on the energy grid. This highlights the secondary logistical impact on Southern GLOCs.
(05:09, TASS, LOW): RF narratives are now promoting a "failed hijacking" of a MiG-31K (Kinzhal carrier) by Ukrainian/British services. This is assessed as a distraction/propaganda counter-measure (UNCONFIRMED).
(05:30, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, HIGH): FPV drone strikes reported in Marhanets (Nikopol district), indicating the continued use of short-range precision munitions against civilian infrastructure.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa/Mykolaiv):
STEPNOHIRSK (CRITICAL): Russian VDV units claim to have bypassed previous mud-related delays to seize the majority of the settlement. If confirmed, this compromises the UAF defensive line protecting the approach to Zaporizhzhia city. (Confidence: MEDIUM)
HULYAIPOLE: The RF 35th Army (Group "Vostok") is actively utilizing drone-spotting to interdict UAF vehicle movements south of the settlement (Воин DV, 05:10).
MYKOLAIV LOGISTICS: The city is experiencing partial power failure following drone strikes, necessitating the use of autonomous-run trolleybuses. This adds friction to the backup logistics route for the Odesa corridor while the Mayaki Bridge remains out.
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas):
ATTRITION: UAF General Staff maintains estimates of 1,000+ daily RF casualties. The focus remains on the Novoelyzavetivka axis where RF armor (T-72B3Ms) continues to seek a breach toward the M-30.
3. Northern/Border/Deep Strike:
UAF UAV CAMPAIGN: The scope of UAF drone operations has expanded to the Azov Sea and multiple RF regions (27 intercepts). This suggests a coordinated effort to suppress RF air defenses or interdict maritime logistics in the Azov basin.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Tactical): The RF is accelerating the Stepnohirsk offensive to coincide with the Miami diplomatic flight (Dmitriev, 05:23). The use of VDV suggests the commitment of higher-quality mobile reserves to achieve a breakthrough before any "freeze" or ceasefire is discussed in Miami.
Logistics: Interdiction of UAF vehicles near Hulyaipole (05:10) indicates an RF focus on disrupting UAF tactical repositioning in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
Information Operations: RF is layering narratives: 1) Tactical success in Stepnohirsk, 2) Foiled UA/UK "hijacking" plots, and 3) Dismissal of UA flag-raising ops. This creates a "total dominance" narrative for both domestic and international audiences (Miami summit).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Maneuvers: UAF is maintaining a high tempo of UAV operations against RF rear areas (Azov/Border) to force a diversion of RF AD assets from the front.
Defensive Posture: UAF forces in the Zaporizhzhia region are under heavy pressure; the Zaporizhzhia OVA (05:10) reports 10 casualties, indicating sustained bombardment of the depth of the defense.
Strategic Communication: The DShV (Air Assault Forces) released morale-boosting content (05:34) likely intended to reinforce the resilience of units facing the VDV push in Stepnohirsk.
Information environment / disinformation
"The Hijacking Narrative": The TASS report (05:09) regarding a MiG-31K hijacking is likely a classic "reflexive control" tactic to portray UAF/Western intelligence as desperate and incompetent.
Miami Leaks: High-confidence reporting on Dmitriev’s flight (05:23) indicates a breach in RF diplomatic secrecy or a deliberate leak to signal Russian readiness to negotiate from a position of (perceived) strength.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will attempt to consolidate gains in Stepnohirsk and present a "fait accompli" regarding the town's status. Air defense activity over the Azov Sea will increase as UAF continues to probe for maritime vulnerabilities.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A rapid VDV breakthrough from Stepnohirsk toward the southern outskirts of Zaporizhzhia, coupled with a renewed missile strike on the Mykolaiv/Odesa energy hubs to completely isolate the southern group of forces.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Visual/Geolocated confirmation of RF presence in central Stepnohirsk. Is the pincer maneuver functional, or is this "Rybar-style" exaggeration?
(URGENT): Severity of the power outage in Mykolaiv. Does this affect the rail-loading capabilities for Western aid bypasses?
(TECHNICAL): Monitor for RF employment of the Leningrad Arsenal munitions (noted in previous daily report) in coordination with the Miami summit timeline.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The conflict has entered a "Kinetic-Diplomatic Sprint." The RF is committing elite VDV assets to seize Stepnohirsk (05:16) while simultaneously sending top-level emissaries to Miami (05:23). This is a textbook "escalate to negotiate" maneuver. The paralysis of Mykolaiv's transport (05:26) further isolates the Southern theater. Actionable Judgment: UAF must prioritize the stabilization of the Stepnohirsk line. Loss of this town would grant the RF significant leverage in Miami and potentially unhinge the entire Zaporizhzhia defense before the weekend concludes.
