(05:01, RBC-Ukraine/GenStaff, HIGH): UAF General Staff reports 1,090 Russian personnel casualties over the last 24-hour period, indicating sustained high-intensity attrition despite environmental constraints.
(04:48, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): Security lockdown initiated in central Kyiv for the arrival of foreign delegations. This coincides with the reported Miami peace summit timeline, suggesting high-level diplomatic coordination on the ground.
(05:03, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF military PR confirms T-72B3M tank operations in Novoelyzavetivka (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk sector), indicating that armored maneuver is continuing in the East despite mud conditions reported elsewhere.
(04:40, AV Bogomaz, HIGH): RF air defenses intercepted one Ukrainian fixed-wing UAV over Bryansk Oblast, confirming continued UAF pressure on Russian border regions and rear-area security.
(04:44, TASS, MEDIUM): Former FSB Counterintelligence head Alexander Bezverkhny launched a narrative framing UAF "flag-raising" operations in occupied territories as "meaningless losses." This likely serves to preemptively discredit UAF psychological operations in the South or East.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
LOGISTICS DISRUPTION: The M-15 Highway remains critically compromised following the Mayaki Bridge severance (from previous 24h context). No new repair or bypass data has emerged.
STEPNOHIRSK: While previous reports indicated VDV successes, the lack of new visual confirmation in the last 60 minutes suggests the assault may have stalled due to the confirmed "Rasputitsa" (mud) conditions or UAF reactive fires.
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas):
NOVOELYZAVETIVKA ENGAGEMENT: Confirmed activity of RF 72B3M tanks (Colonelcassad, 05:03). This indicates the RF is prioritizing the Pokrovsk axis for its remaining high-end armored assets. The proximity of Novoelyzavetivka to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) suggests an attempt to widen the breach south of the city.
3. Northern/Border Sector:
KINETIC HARASSMENT: The Bryansk UAV intercept (04:40) and the ongoing "Sever" group strikes (prev. report) indicate a persistent state of low-to-mid intensity conflict designed to fix UAF units.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Tactical): In the Pokrovsk sector, the RF is utilizing decorated tank crews (T-72B3M) to maintain momentum. This suggests that while infantry-led "meat assaults" continue (evidenced by 1,090 casualties), armored support is being integrated to achieve a breakthrough toward the M-30 highway.
Information Operations (IO): The RF is transitioning from "Pokrovsk has fallen" narratives (yesterday) to a more sophisticated "UAF operations are PR-driven and suicidal" narrative (TASS, 04:44). This aims to reduce the psychological impact of potential UAF local counter-attacks or symbolic victories.
Logistics: High SAR activity at the Leningrad District Missile Arsenal (from daily report) remains the primary long-term threat. Current frontline operations are likely burning through forward stocks.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Diplomatic Security: UAF security forces have successfully locked down Kyiv for international delegations (04:48). This suggests a shift in focus toward "Security Guarantees" or "Peace Terms" being negotiated under high-security conditions.
Deep Strike Ops: Continued UAV sorties into Bryansk (04:40) indicate that UAF aviation/UAV branches are still capable of penetrating RF integrated air defense systems (IADS).
Defense of Pokrovsk: UAF forces appear to be engaged in high-attrition defensive operations near Novoelyzavetivka, attempting to stall the RF 5th Tank Brigade/72B3M units.
Information environment / disinformation
"Flag Photos" Narrative: (04:44, TASS) Russian state media is attempting to portray Ukrainian tactical successes as purely for social media, likely to counter-message the arrival of delegations in Kyiv and the Miami talks.
Ideological Morale: RF channels (Arkhangel Spetsnaza, 05:01) continue to blend religious/historical motifs with current combat, aiming to sustain morale on "Chekist Day" despite massive personnel losses.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will maintain the push in the Pokrovsk sector using T-72B3M armored support to exploit the Novoelyzavetivka axis. In Zaporizhzhia, operations will remain infantry-centric due to mud, with a focus on small-unit infiltration in Stepnohirsk.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF utilizes the munitions currently being loaded at the Leningrad Arsenal for a concentrated missile strike on Kyiv while foreign delegations are present, aiming to derail the Miami negotiations through "escalation for de-escalation."
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Status of the Mayaki Bridge and M-15 GLOC. Is there visual evidence of pontoon construction or a functioning bypass via Palanca?
(URGENT): Identify the "foreign delegations" in Kyiv. Their identity will reveal the specific trajectory of the "Miami Peace Summit" (e.g., EU vs. US-led).
(TACTICAL): Assess the impact of mud in the Novoelyzavetivka area compared to Stepnohirsk. Why is armor still viable in the East but reportedly bogged down in the South?
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The operational tempo is increasingly bifurcated: high-attrition attrition warfare continues in the East (Pokrovsk/Novoelyzavetivka) with heavy armor, while the South is transitioning into a logistical and environmental stalemate due to mud and bridge destruction. The arrival of delegations in Kyiv (04:48) during a period of 1,000+ daily RF casualties suggests a critical decision point is approaching. Actionable Judgment: UAF must hold the Novoelyzavetivka line at all costs to prevent an armored breakout that could compromise the Pokrovsk pocket before diplomatic security guarantees are finalized.
