(03:20, RBK-Ukraine/CPD, HIGH): The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) issued a bulletin specifically addressing and neutralizing rumors regarding a potential Russian amphibious descent on Odesa.
(03:22, TASS/NASA, MEDIUM): Announcement of a collaborative Crew Dragon mission to the ISS involving a Russian cosmonaut scheduled for Feb 2026. Note: While strategic, this serves as a narrative "normalizer" amidst active kinetic escalation.
(03:04, Operatsiya Z, LOW - UNCONFIRMED): Internal conflict claims (SBU vs. NABU) remain uncorroborated; analyzed as a synchronized IO alongside Southern kinetic operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
KINETIC PREPARATION: No new kinetic reports since the 02:44Z KAB launches. RF forces are likely in the final stages of the "bombardment-to-maneuver" transition. The 04:00Z window for the 5th Tank Brigade’s armored thrust toward Herasymivka remains the primary tactical threat.
COGNITIVE DEFENSE (Odesa): Active efforts by the CPD to debunk "Odesa landing" narratives indicate an RF attempt to induce panic in the rear or force the UAF to fix reserves in the Odesa garrison that would otherwise be redirected to the Zaporizhzhia breakout point.
LOGISTICS: The M-15 (Mayaki Bridge) remains non-operational. Isolation of the Bessarabia region persists.
2. Eastern & North-Eastern Sectors:
STASIS: No new significant kinetic activity reported in the last 30 minutes. Focus of both sides remains on the Southern theater and the diplomatic friction in Miami.
3. Russian Rear:
DE-ESCALATION: Stability in Lipetsk (post-alert cancellation) suggests RF is successfully managing its immediate rear-area security, allowing concentrated focus on the 04:00Z maneuver.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (Psychological): The launch of the "Odesa landing" narrative (now being countered by the CPD) is a classic diversionary IO. Dempster-Shafer belief analysis assigns a negligible probability (0.0036) to an actual amphibious landing, supporting the assessment that this is a feint/distraction.
Course of Action (Tactical): RF is adhering to the 04:00Z maneuver timeline. Expect a transition from KAB/Aviation suppression to heavy artillery (MLRS) prep-fires within the next 15-20 minutes.
Strategic Narrative: The NASA/Crew Dragon announcement via TASS (03:22Z) is likely being leveraged to project a "business as usual" image to the international community, potentially to soften the diplomatic blow of the planned Southern offensive during the Miami summit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Information Operations: The CPD is actively engaged in "pre-bunking" Russian narratives. This is a critical defensive measure to maintain civil order and prevent the diversion of tactical reserves based on rumors.
Defensive Posture: UAF units in the Gaychur River line (Zaporizhzhia) are assessed to be in maximum readiness for the 04:00Z armored thrust.
Information environment / disinformation
"Odesa Landing" Rumors: Identified as an active RF disinformation campaign. The CPD's rapid response (03:20Z) indicates a high state of monitoring for hybrid threats.
Institutional Friction: Claims of SBU/NABU violence (03:04Z) remain a priority for monitoring but have not gained significant traction in mainstream Ukrainian media.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): At 04:00Z, the RF 5th Tank Brigade will initiate a heavy armored assault toward Herasymivka. This will be supported by intensive EW to mask the specific axis of advance.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF synchronized the Zaporizhzhia maneuver with a localized tactical air-assault (VDV) in the Bessarabia region to capitalize on the M-15 bridge closure, physically isolating the Odesa-Romanian border corridor.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Signal intelligence (SIGINT) regarding the 5th Tank Brigade’s command nets. Confirm "Go" order for maneuver.
(URGENT): Visual confirmation of RF Black Sea Fleet landing craft positions. While assessed as IO, physical verification is required to fully rule out MDCOA.
(TACTICAL): Real-time monitoring of the Palanca (Moldova) bypass route for heavy vehicle throughput capacity.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
We are currently T-minus 25 minutes from the projected 04:00Z maneuver. The operational environment is characterized by a "calm before the storm" in kinetic terms, but high-intensity activity in the cognitive domain. The debunking of the Odesa landing rumor by the CPD (03:20Z) is a significant defensive win, preventing the misappropriation of reserves. Actionable Judgment: The main effort is unequivocally Zaporizhzhia; Odesa-related threats are currently diversionary.
