(02:44, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
(02:54, RF Regional Authority, HIGH): Cancellation of "Red" and "Yellow" alert levels in the Lipetsk region (RF), indicating a reduction in perceived UAF long-range drone threats to the Russian rear in that specific corridor.
(03:04, Operatsiya Z, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Allegations of internal conflict between the SBU and NABU involving physical violence against a detective. Assessed as an Information Operation (IO) targeting Ukrainian institutional stability.
(03:03, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Dissemination of PLA high-altitude exercise footage from Tibet. While non-theater, its promotion in RU channels suggests a shift toward highlighting "strategic partnership" optics.
(02:50, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Polish Sejm Marshal declares readiness to assist Ukraine with future election logistics, signaling long-term Western commitment to democratic continuity.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
KINETIC ESCALATION: The transition from tactical aviation activity (reported at 02:26Z) to active KAB launches (02:44Z) confirms the final preparation phase for the anticipated 04:00Z ground maneuver. RF is utilizing high-yield guided munitions to suppress UAF forward defensive positions and command nodes along the Zaporizhzhia axis.
LOGISTICAL ISOLATION: No change to the M-15 status. The "logistical vacuum" remains in effect, with previous reports of civilian desperation at the Moldova border (02:13Z) likely intensifying as morning approaches.
SITUATIONAL STASIS: Beyond the earlier reports of tactical aviation surges, no new kinetic updates have emerged. The focus of RF offensive operations remains heavily weighted toward the Southern breakout.
3. Russian Rear:
THREAT REDUCTION: The "All Clear" in Lipetsk (02:54Z) suggest RF air defenses have neutralized or the UAF has completed a localized deep-strike sortie. This allows RF to refocus domestic C2 on frontline support.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation course of action: The use of KABs at 02:44Z indicates RF is targeting static fortifications. This is the standard doctrinal precursor to a heavy armor push (5th Tank Brigade).
Hybrid Operations: RF milbloggers are pivoting to internal Ukrainian political narratives (SBU vs. NABU). This is likely intended to sow distrust in Ukrainian law enforcement and anti-corruption bodies during a period of high tactical stress.
Strategic Distraction: Promotion of PLA military activities (03:03Z) is assessed as a move to project a global multi-polar military threat, potentially aimed at influencing the "security guarantees" discussions at the Miami summit.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Engagement: UAF AD units in Zaporizhzhia are actively tracking KAB release points. However, the short flight time and low RCS of KABs make interception difficult, necessitating passive defense (dispersal/fortification).
Civil-Military Relations: Poland's offer of election support (02:50Z) provides a diplomatic morale boost, reinforcing the narrative of post-war recovery despite current kinetic pressure.
Information environment / disinformation
"Internal Purge" Narrative (03:04Z): Russian sources are aggressively pushing claims of SBU violence against NABU detectives. Analysis: This is a high-priority IO designed to discredit the Ukrainian government in the eyes of Western donors (specifically regarding corruption) while the Miami talks are ongoing. Confidence is LOW; no corroboration from Ukrainian state media or independent monitors.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): The 04:00Z window remains the critical decision point. KAB strikes will continue for the next 45-60 minutes to "soften" the Gaychur River line. At 04:00Z, the 5th Tank Brigade will likely initiate its armored thrust toward Herasymivka.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF uses the SBU/NABU disinformation as a pretext for a broader "state collapse" narrative, synchronized with a massive cyber-attack on UAF C2 to coincide with the 04:00Z ground assault.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Damage Assessment (BDA) of KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia. Identify which defensive nodes have been degraded.
(URGENT): Verification of the SBU/NABU incident. Confirm if this is a total fabrication or a distorted report of a real internal friction point.
(TACTICAL): Status of UAF mobile ATGM teams near Herasymivka. Ensure they have moved from "calm" positions to active engagement zones prior to 03:45Z.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The battlefield geometry is set. RF is following a strict doctrinal sequence: EW suppression -> UAV base interdiction -> KAB bombardment -> Ground Maneuver. We are currently in the final 50 minutes of the bombardment phase. The focus of effort is clearly the Zaporizhzhia-Herasymivka axis. Tactical recommendation: Initiate maximum-rate counter-battery fire on RF heavy artillery positions associated with the 5th Tank Brigade assembly areas. Transition all UAF assets in the Odesa/Bessarabia corridor to "Independent Operations" mode in case of C2 severance.
