(01:52, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Enemy UAVs detected in Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district moving on a vector toward Mayaki (Odesa region).
(01:49, РБК-Україна/FT, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the United Kingdom has declined the use of frozen Russian assets to fund aid for Ukraine; this represents a significant shift in diplomatic/economic sustainment expectations.
(01:34, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): "All Clear" remains in effect for Zaporizhzhia, reinforcing the assessment of a tactical "calm before the storm" ahead of the projected 04:00Z maneuver.
LOGISTICAL ISOLATION: The movement of UAVs toward Mayaki (01:52Z) is critical. Given the M-15 Mayaki Bridge was previously reported severed (Daily Report 15:01Z), this new flight path suggests the RF is either:
Targeting emergency repair operations or pontoon bridging equipment at the Mayaki site.
Using the Mayaki corridor as a low-altitude transit route to bypass Odesa’s primary air defense envelopes.
ZATOKA VECTOR: UAVs previously identified (01:24Z) vectoring toward Zatoka remain a primary threat to the last remaining heavy Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) to the Romanian border.
REAR AREA SUPPRESSION: No new kinetic strikes reported since the 01:06Z/01:18Z KAB (guided aerial bomb) volleys. However, the operational tempo remains high as the RF maintains its "shaping" posture across Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Maneuver (Odesa): The RF is conducting a multi-axis UAV approach toward the Odesa-Bessarabia transit points. The synchronization of UAVs over Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi suggests a coordinated effort to suppress localized mobile AD before a larger strike or the 04:00Z armored breakout.
Aviation Status: While Zaporizhzhia is "clear," RF tactical aviation remains active in the VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) "loiter zones" over the Sea of Azov, capable of re-engaging targets in the Southern sector within minutes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Logistics Rerouting: Current focus is likely the activation of the Palanca bypass (Moldova) to compensate for the severed Mayaki bridge.
Defensive Posture: UAF mobile fire groups are engaged in the Odesa/Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi region to intercept incoming UAVs. AD battery discipline is high to avoid detection during the pre-dawn window.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Setback: The FT report (01:49Z) regarding the UK’s stance on frozen assets provides a narrative opening for RF Information Operations (IO). RF sources are expected to exploit this to demoralize UAF forces by suggesting a fracturing of Western financial support.
Peace Talk Narratives: Ongoing RF IO continues to paint Ukraine as the "perpetual war" actor (01:11Z) to weaken the Ukrainian position at the Miami summit.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will intensify the UAV swarm against the Zatoka and Mayaki hubs between 02:30Z and 03:30Z. This is the final shaping phase before the 04:00Z armored push toward Herasymivka. The objective is to ensure no reinforcements can reach the Gaychur River line from the West or South.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): RF uses the UAVs as decoys for a coordinated cruise missile strike on the Odesa port infrastructure and the Palanca transit corridor, achieving a total logistical blockade of Southwestern Ukraine.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Mayaki area following the 01:52Z UAV vector. Are repair crews being targeted?
(URGENT): Confirmation of UK policy change via official diplomatic channels. Is this a total refusal or a shift in the mechanism of delivery?
(TACTICAL): Status of RF 5th Tank Brigade in its assembly areas. Have engines been started? (Requirement: ELINT/SIGINT for increased radio traffic).
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The battlefield is entering a terminal phase of preparation for a 04:00Z maneuver. The RF is focused on the total isolation of the Odesa region by re-striking or suppressing the Mayaki and Zatoka nodes. The reported diplomatic friction regarding UK funding adds a layer of hybrid pressure intended to coincide with the kinetic escalation. Tactical recommendation: Deploy additional mobile fire groups to the M-15/M-14 junction and ensure the Palanca bypass remains clear of civilian congestion to allow for rapid military transit.
