(01:06, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, expanding the strike radius to deep-rear logistics.
(01:18, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed KAB launches targeting the Kharkiv region, increasing pressure on the North-Eastern axis.
(01:24, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Multiple UAVs detected in the Black Sea vectoring toward Zatoka, signaling a high-probability strike attempt on the secondary southern logistics corridor.
(01:34, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air raid alert "All Clear" signaled for Zaporizhzhia region, indicating a localized pause in kinetic activity or a shift in RF aviation vectors.
(01:11, Operation Z, LOW): RF propaganda sources claiming Ukrainian officials are prepping for a "2026 year of war" as justification for rejecting peace; assessed as Information Operations (IO) targeting the Miami peace talks.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. North-Eastern Sector (Sumy/Kupyansk/Kharkiv):
EXPANDED STRIKES: The extension of KAB strikes into the Kharkiv region (01:18Z), following earlier strikes in Sumy, indicates a wide-area suppression of UAF tactical depth.
PURPOSE: This saturation appears designed to paralyze movement across the entire northern front, likely to prevent lateral redeployment of reserves toward the Kupyansk area where President Zelenskyy noted increasing RF manpower concentrations.
LOGISTICAL INTERDICTION: The inclusion of Dnipropetrovsk in the KAB strike package (01:06Z) is a significant escalation. Dnipropetrovsk serves as the primary logistical hub for the entire Donbas front. Striking this region suggests RF is targeting the "Second Line" of UAF sustainment to starve the Pokrovsk pocket of reinforcements.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa/Zatoka):
ZATOKA THREAT: The detection of UAVs heading toward Zatoka (01:24Z) is the most critical tactical development. With the M-15 Mayaki Bridge already severed (Daily Report 15:01Z), the Zatoka Bridge is the last remaining heavy GLOC (Ground Line of Communication) connecting Odesa to the Romanian border/Bessarabia region.
STATUS: The "All Clear" in Zaporizhzhia (01:34Z) may indicate that RF aviation assets have completed their "shaping" fires in that sector or are loitering for the anticipated 04:00Z armored breakout.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Tempo: RF is maintaining a high sortie rate with KAB-capable tactical aviation across three distinct geographic regions (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk). This indicates high C2 (Command and Control) synchronization.
Interdiction Strategy: The shift from frontline tactical targets to logistical hubs (Dnipropetrovsk) and critical bridges (Zatoka) confirms a strategy of Isolation of the Battlefield.
Robotic Integration: Continued assessment of UGV deployment (Dempster-Shafer belief 0.15) suggests that as KABs degrade defenses, UGVs/robotic complexes will likely be the first echelons to test UAF lines during the 04:00Z window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: AD units are actively tracking multiple vectors. The use of "All Clear" signals in Zaporizhzhia suggests disciplined battery management to avoid RF SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) during the pre-dawn hours.
Resilience: UAF continues to hold the line in Kupyansk despite the "increasingly difficult" conditions confirmed by the Supreme Commander.
Information environment / disinformation
Peace Talk Sabotage: RF milbloggers (Operation Z, 01:11Z) are aggressively promoting a narrative that Ukraine is uninterested in the Miami peace proposals. This is likely intended to erode Western political support by painting the UAF as the party seeking prolonged conflict (2026 horizon).
Domestic Distraction: TASS continues to prioritize civilian financial scandals (Dolina case, 01:28Z), maintaining the domestic "veneer of normalcy" while high-intensity operations escalate.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will attempt to destroy the Zatoka Bridge via UAV/missile strike within the next 2 hours to achieve total logistical isolation of the Southwest. This will be followed at 04:00Z by an armored push toward Herasymivka, exploiting the UAF's inability to move reinforcements from the North or South.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): Simultaneous KAB saturation of Dnipropetrovsk rail hubs and a breakthrough in Kupyansk, causing a systemic collapse of the Eastern front logistics that prevents a coordinated retreat or reinforcement.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Status of Zatoka Bridge defenses. Have mobile AD assets been repositioned to cover this specific GLOC?
(TACTICAL): Damage assessment from the KAB strikes in Dnipropetrovsk. Are the rail junctions or ammo dumps the primary targets?
(TECHNICAL): Verification of UGV/Kuriyer activity in the Kharkiv direction following the KAB strikes.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The battlefield geometry is being aggressively reshaped for a major maneuver phase. By targeting Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Dnipropetrovsk simultaneously, the RF is attempting to "blind and bind" UAF forces. The UAV movement toward Zatoka confirms the enemy's intent to complete the isolation of the Odesa region. Tactical recommendation: Prioritize the interception of UAVs in the Black Sea/Zatoka vector and verify the operationality of the Palanca bypass for immediate heavy equipment movement.
