(00:44, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of KAB (guided aerial bombs) targeting the Sumy region, marking an escalation from the tactical aviation "detection" reported at 00:19.
(00:57, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirms an operational visit to Kupyansk, acknowledging that RF manpower is increasing and the tactical situation is becoming "increasingly difficult."
(01:03, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Combat footage released showing Mi-35 (Hind) attack helicopter operations; confirms active rotary-wing CAS (Close Air Support) being integrated into current RF offensives.
(00:49, TASS, HIGH): Russian state media shifts domestic narrative toward internal financial regulations (pension seizures for debt), continuing the pattern of using "civilian noise" to distract from high-intensity front-line operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. North-Eastern Sector (Sumy/Kupyansk Axis):
KAB STRIKES: The transition from aviation presence to active KAB launches in Sumy (00:44Z) indicates a localized suppression campaign, likely targeting UAF logistics or assembly points intended to reinforce the Kupyansk area.
COMMAND VISIBILITY: President Zelenskyy’s visit to Kupyansk (00:57Z) serves as a critical indicator of the sector's gravity. It suggests UAF command is prioritizing the stabilization of this axis against what the President described as increasing RF troop concentrations.
WEATHER/TERRAIN: Heavy munitions (KABs) are being used to compensate for potential winter maneuver limitations, utilizing stand-off ranges to degrade UAF defensive geometry.
2. Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas):
MANPOWER PRESSURE: Analytical judgment based on Zelenskyy’s statement indicates that RF "mass" is becoming the primary operational challenge, likely exhausting UAF defensive depth through high-frequency infantry assaults supported by rotary-wing assets like the Mi-35 (01:03Z).
STATUS: While the "Pokrovsk Fallen" narrative (Daily Report, 15:01Z) remains unconfirmed, the Presidential visit to the nearby Kupyansk axis suggests a broader North-East/East stabilization effort is underway.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Odesa):
LOGISTICS CRITICAL: No new updates on the M-15 Mayaki Bridge. The "Herasymivka" armored breakout window (04:00Z) is now less than 3 hours away.
ASSESSMENT: The surge in KAB strikes and aviation activity in the North-East is increasingly assessed as a fixing operation to prevent the movement of UAF mobile reserves (e.g., 7th Corps) toward the South before the expected 04:00Z maneuver phase.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Rotary-Wing Integration: The deployment of Mi-35s (01:03Z) suggests RF is moving into the "direct support" phase of their assault, using helicopters to suppress UAF strongpoints that survived initial KAB/artillery strikes.
Manpower Attrition Strategy: Zelenskyy’s admission of "increasingly difficult" conditions due to RF numbers suggests the RF MoD has successfully funneled fresh contract or reserve echelons to the Kupyansk/Pokrovsk vectors.
Munitions Status: Combined with the Leningrad Missile Arsenal spike (Daily Report, Score 36.52), the current KAB launches in Sumy are likely the precursor to a larger-scale missile/bomb package timed for the pre-dawn hours.
Friendly activity (UAF)
High Command Maneuver: The President's presence in Kupyansk (00:57Z) is a "surge" in political-military leadership intended to stabilize morale and verify tactical requirements firsthand ahead of the 04:00Z critical window.
Air Defense: Remains actively engaged in the North-East; however, the shift to KABs presents a high-attrition challenge for short-to-medium range AD systems.
Information environment / disinformation
Domestic Pivot (RF): TASS reports on pension seizures (00:49Z) and previous "caviar scams" (00:17Z) indicate a deliberate effort to keep the Russian domestic audience focused on mundane economic stressors rather than the high-casualty "mass" tactics Zelenskyy reported.
Strategic Signaling: The SNBO's confirmation of the Miami meeting's end (00:21Z) is now being tested by the RF's increased kinetic tempo.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity KAB and Mi-35 pressure in the Kupyansk/Sumy sector to pin UAF forces while launching the primary armored push toward Herasymivka at 04:00Z.
Most Dangerous (MDCOA): A coordinated breakthrough in the Kupyansk sector, exploiting the "increasing difficulty" noted by Zelenskyy, which forces UAF to pull reserves from the South, simultaneously opening the door for a total collapse of the Odesa/Zaporizhzhia GLOCs.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(TACTICAL): Precise identification of Mi-35 operational areas (geolocated) to determine the specific "breakthrough" point for RF armor.
(LOGISTICAL): Immediate status update on the Palanca bypass (Moldova) to ensure Western aid can bypass the severed M-15 bridge.
(BATTLEFIELD): Ground-level verification of RF "Kuriyer" UGV effectiveness in the Kupyansk/Sumy axis.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
The operational tempo has shifted from "shaping" to "penetration." The President’s visit to Kupyansk confirms that the North-East is currently the focal point of RF pressure, characterized by superior manpower mass and the saturation of the airspace with KABs and rotary-wing CAS. This activity is likely synchronized to peak at 04:00Z, coinciding with the expected southern armored breakout. Immediate reinforcement of the Kupyansk-Sumy axis AD and anti-tank assets is required to prevent a localized collapse that would compromise the broader defensive posture.
