(18:56, Tsaplienko/Lyoushkin, HIGH): Economic experts warn that the interdiction of the Mayaky Bridge (Odesa-Reni) could block up to 60% of Ukraine's fuel imports, threatening immediate price surges and regional shortages.
(18:47/18:39, CyberBoroshno/Alex Parker, MEDIUM): Ukrainian SSO claims a successful drone strike (FP-2) on a Russian Project 22460 "Okhotnik" patrol ship; Russian sources acknowledge UAF claims but suggest the target may be a Project 21631 "Buyan-M" corvette.
(19:00/19:04, PS ZSU, HIGH): Active ballistic missile threat detected originating from the south; a high-speed target is currently tracking toward Pivdenne.
(18:51, Fighterbomber, HIGH): Visual evidence (video) confirms catastrophic structural damage to the Mayaky Bridge (M-15), verifying it is impassable for heavy logistics.
(18:38, RBK-UA, HIGH): EU leadership (Manfred Weber) confirmed the finalized intent to utilize frozen Russian assets to fund Ukrainian defense and reconstruction.
(19:03, Colonelcassad, HIGH): A large-scale exchange of deceased military personnel took place; data indicates a consistent volume of exchanges through December 2025.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has shifted from tactical maneuvering in the Donbas to a strategic logistical crisis in the Odesa region. The destruction of the Mayaky Bridge (M-15) is now confirmed to have a compounding effect: it is not only a military GLOC disruption but a threat to national energy security, as the Odesa-Reni corridor handles the majority of fuel imports.
Weather conditions in the eastern sectors remain difficult, prompting the RF to transition to light, high-mobility platforms (ATVs/quads) for "last-mile" infantry delivery and casualty evacuation (18:37). In the maritime domain, Ukraine has intensified its "mosquito fleet" operations, targeting high-value Black Sea Fleet (BSF) assets with specialized FPV drones.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Adaptation:
Mobility Shifts: RF forces are increasingly relying on quad bikes/ATVs (18:37) to bypass mud-season constraints. This indicates a shift away from heavy armored pushes in specific sectors toward decentralized, small-group infiltration.
Aviation/Missile Pressure: The use of KABs on Sumy (18:41) and the launch of ballistic missiles from the south (19:00) suggests a coordinated effort to fix UAF air defenses while simultaneously pressuring logistical hubs.
Drone Warfare: RF "Vostok" grouping (14th Spetsnaz Brigade) continues to demonstrate high-efficiency drone-on-personnel strikes near Priluky, specifically targeting UAF attempts to engage drones with small arms (19:00).
Logistics & Sustainment:
Interdiction Success: The RF strike on the M-15 bridge has achieved a primary operational objective: severing 60% of fuel import capacity. This will likely force the UAF to prioritize fuel for frontline units, potentially slowing civilian logistics and internal economic movement.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture & Readiness:
Maritime Strike Capabilities: The SSO’s engagement of a patrol ship (Project 22460 or 21631) demonstrates that UAF retains offensive initiative in the western Black Sea. Utilizing FP-2 drones against combatants suggests an evolution in maritime strike TTPs.
Logistical Resilience: Coordination with Moldova for bypass routes (18:45) is ongoing but is now characterized as an "emergency" measure due to the fuel import warnings.
Strategic Funding: The EU's confirmation on frozen assets provides a long-term readiness boost, though it does not mitigate the immediate tactical pressure on the southern GLOCs.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Diplomatic Friction: Comments from Polish PM Donald Tusk regarding a "lack of appreciation" for Polish efforts (18:51) indicate persistent diplomatic tension that could be exploited by RF information operations to slow logistics via the Polish border.
RF Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels are attempting to frame European migrant policies as "concentration camps" (19:04) and are amplifying rumors of German BND sabotage (18:36) to sow distrust between Western allies and their domestic populations.
Bilateral Morale: The exchange of bodies (19:03) serves as a rare point of contact but is used by RF milbloggers to project a narrative of high UAF attrition via comparative charts.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue ballistic and KAB strikes on southern and northeastern hubs to prevent the stabilization of new logistics routes. Within 12 hours, expect a spike in fuel prices in Odesa and potentially the implementation of fuel rationing for non-military vehicles.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF capitalizes on the fuel logistics "shock" by launching a multi-axis mechanized push in the Zaporizhzhia sector while UAF reserves are geographically fixed or fuel-constrained.
Timeline: Expect ballistic impacts in the Pivdenne/Odesa vicinity within the next hour (based on 19:04 warnings).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL) BDA of Naval Strike: Satellite or SIGINT confirmation of whether the target was a Buyan-M (missile carrier) or an Okhotnik (patrol ship). Destruction of a Buyan-M would significantly reduce RF Kalibr launch capacity.
(URGENT) Fuel Reserve Status: Assessment of Ukraine's current fuel "days of cover" following the M-15 closure.
(TACTICAL) ATV Proliferation: Determine the scale of RF ATV/quad bike deployment. Is this localized to the "Vostok" group or a theater-wide adaptation?
(STRATEGIC) Moldovan Bypass: Confirm the maximum tonnage allowed on the Palanca bypass to see if fuel tankers can transit at 100% capacity.
