(18:25, STERNENKO, HIGH): Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba confirmed Ukraine and Moldova are actively establishing bypass routes following the RF strike on the Mayaky Bridge (M-15).
(18:15/18:17, RBK-UA/Operatyvnyi ZSU, MEDIUM): Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) claim a successful strike on a Russian Black Sea Fleet vessel; Russian sources (Kotsnews, 18:19) conversely claim UAF struck a "civilian oil tanker."
(18:33, Slivochniy Kapriz, MEDIUM): Intense localized combat reported near Dobropillya (Zaporizhzhia Oblast), south of the Huliaipole axis, indicating a potential widening of the RF offensive.
(18:31, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF forces utilized "Smerch" MLRS integrated with Radio-Electronic Reconnaissance (RER) to strike UAF personnel concentrations in Dimitrov (Pokrovsk sector).
(18:15, PS ZSU, HIGH): The threat of ballistic missile use against Odesa and southern regions has been cleared (All-clear signaled).
(18:30, Dnipropetrovsk OVA, HIGH): Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted and destroyed 2 RF UAVs over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
(18:06, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): RF FPV drone strike in Zaporizhzhia district resulted in two civilian casualties.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently defined by a strategic logistical pivot. Following the confirmed physical interdiction of the Mayaky Bridge (M-15), the Ukrainian government has transitioned from damage assessment to active mitigation, coordinating with Moldova to secure alternative Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs).
The battlefield geometry is expanding: while the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient remains the primary RF effort, new high-intensity contact near Dobropillya (Zaporizhzhia) suggests the RF is attempting to fix UAF reserves or exploit seams between the Southern and Eastern groupings of forces.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Adaptation:
Integrated Fires (Pokrovsk): The reported use of "Smerch" MLRS cued by RER assets (18:31) indicates an increased level of technical sophistication in RF counter-battery and interdiction fires. This "sensor-to-shooter" link targeting buildings in Dimitrov suggests RF is prioritizing the destruction of UAF rear staging areas to support the Myrnohrad encirclement.
Zaporizhzhia Expansion: Tactical activity in Dobropillya indicates RF "Group V" or "Group East" may be attempting a flanking maneuver to threaten the Huliaipole defense from the south.
Drone Proliferation: The Russian MoD’s release of "Unmanned Systems Forces" footage (18:19) confirms the mass deployment of UAVs across all sectors, likely intended to compensate for high infantry attrition during urban assaults.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Fundraising Urgency: Continued aggressive fundraising by pro-RF milbloggers (Archangel Spetsnaz, 18:12) and volunteer groups (NgP Razvedka, 18:34) suggests that despite state-level mobilization, frontline units remain dependent on "crowdfunded" tactical equipment (drones, thermal optics, medicine).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture & Readiness:
Maritime Interdiction: The SSO's reported strike on a naval target (18:15) demonstrates that Ukraine retains the capability to contest the Black Sea even as its land GLOCs are under pressure. If confirmed as a combatant vessel, this disrupts RF sea-based Kalibr launch platforms.
Logistical Resilience: The rapid coordination with Moldova (18:25) to establish bypass routes is critical. However, any bypass via Palanca or alternative Moldovan roads will likely have lower weight-bearing capacity than the M-15 bridge, potentially slowing the transit of heavy western armor and fuel.
Air Defense Efficiency: Successful intercepts in Dnipropetrovsk (18:30) show that UAF mobile fire groups and SAM units remain effective against the persistent "Shahed" and reconnaissance UAV threat.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Narrative Conflict (Maritime): A significant discrepancy exists between UAF claims of striking a "Russian tin can" (warship) and RF claims of a strike on an "oil tanker." RF sources are likely attempting to frame UAF maritime operations as "terrorism against commercial shipping" to influence international sentiment ahead of the Miami talks.
Psychological Operations: RF channels are circulating footage of mourning in Ukrainian schools (18:15) with derogatory captions to demoralize the Ukrainian domestic audience and project a "lost generation" narrative.
Strategic Framing: The TASS infographic on Putin's "Year Results" (18:33) serves to project stability and domestic control, likely timed to coincide with the RF's tactical advances near Pokrovsk.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to leverage the "Smerch/RER" complex to target UAF consolidation points in Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. In the South, RF will likely conduct reconnaissance-by-fire against the newly established Ukrainian-Moldovan bypass routes to identify and interdict the next logistical bottleneck.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The RF breakout at Herasymivka (predicted in previous reports) materializes within the next 12 hours, synchronized with a massive maritime/missile strike on the alternative Palanca bypass routes, achieving a total logistical "double-tap" that isolates the Odesa garrison.
Timeline: Anticipate increased UAF drone activity over Crimea tonight in retaliation for the M-15 bridge strike, and a potential RF "pre-dawn" armored push in the Dobropillya-Huliaipole sector.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(URGENT) Naval BDA: Verification of the target struck in the Black Sea (18:15). Was it a Black Sea Fleet combatant or a commercial tanker?
(CRITICAL) Bypass Capacity: Technical assessment of the weight limits and throughput capacity of the Moldova-Ukraine bypass routes. Can they support M1 Abrams or Leopard 2 transit?
(TACTICAL) Dobropillya Intent: Determine if the combat in Dobropillya (18:33) involves elements of the 5th Tank Brigade, which would signal the start of a major southern maneuver.
(TECHNICAL) RER Signature: Identification of the specific RER complex used to cue the "Smerch" strike in Dimitrov to develop EW countermeasures.
