(16:49, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Ballistic missile strike targeted Mayaky (M-15 Highway/Mayaky Bridge), following up on previous infrastructure damage to the primary southern GLOC.
(17:01, TASS, MEDIUM): RF Air Defense (AD) reportedly intercepted five aerial targets over Sevastopol; follows a 20-minute alert period.
(17:01, Tsaplienko/GUR, HIGH): GUR-led "Freedom of Russia Legion" (FRL) successfully sabotaged a critical railway segment in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, disrupting RF lateral logistics.
(16:45, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RF VDV (Ulyanovsk paratroopers) confirmed deploying NRTK (unmanned ground robotic complexes) for front-line resupply and combat in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
(17:02, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF unit "Skelya" confirmed successful drone interdiction of RF infantry and armor in the Pokrovsk sector.
(16:44, RVvoenkor, LOW): [UNCONFIRMED] Pro-Russian sources claim UAF officers near Huliaipole are inciting desertion, citing "DeepState." No corroboration from Ukrainian side; likely Information Operation (IO).
(17:01, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): RF drone strike targeted a UAF vehicle depot in Orikhiv (Zaporizhzhia axis).
(17:03, Archangel Spetsnaz, LOW): [UNCONFIRMED] RF forces claim destruction of a "Vampire" MLRS system in an unspecified sector.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has shifted to a high-intensity interdiction campaign. The Russian Federation (RF) is aggressively targeting the Mayaky Bridge (M-15) with ballistic munitions (16:49) to finalize the isolation of the Odesa/Bessarabia region. Concurrently, the Zaporizhzhia front is seeing a surge in technological deployment, with both sides utilizing unmanned systems (RF NRTK and UAF Skelya drones) to mitigate high infantry attrition. The sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia railway (17:01) serves as a critical counter-logistics success for the UAF, potentially delaying the expected RF armored breakout toward Herasymivka.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Capabilities:
Zaporizhzhia Axis: RF VDV units are integrating ground robotics (NRTK) for "last-mile" logistics (16:45). This indicates a move to sustain high-tempo operations while protecting elite paratrooper manpower.
Deep Strike: The transition from Shahed drones to ballistic missiles against Mayaky (16:49) suggests an RF intent to ensure the permanent destruction of the M-15 bridge before UAF can establish bypasses.
Crimean Defense: Successful interception of five targets over Sevastopol (17:01) confirms the peninsula remains under active UAF aerial pressure, likely aimed at tying down RF AD assets.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Civilian Crowdsourcing: Continued reliance on civilian fundraising for "5th vehicle columns" in Donetsk (17:01) indicates that official RF MoD logistics for non-standard transport remain inadequate despite strategic-level munitions movement.
Economic Indicators: Central Bank head Nabiullina’s warning of a January price spike (17:01) reflects growing domestic economic instability, though not yet a constraint on military production.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture & Readiness:
Pokrovsk Sector: The "Skelya" unit continues to demonstrate high-efficiency drone operations (17:02), maintaining a degree of fire control over RF assembly areas despite the reported pincer movement toward Myrnohrad.
Special Operations: The FRL railway sabotage (17:01) is a high-value tactical win. By severing rail links in Zaporizhzhia, UAF has restricted RF's ability to pivot armored reserves between the Stepnohirsk and Huliaipole axes.
Odesa Defense: Air Force is actively tracking "Shahed" incursions from the Black Sea toward Yuzhne (16:53), indicating a multi-layered RF attack on southern infrastructure.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Demoralization: RF sources are leveraging a fake "DeepState" narrative regarding Huliaipole (16:44) to sow distrust between UAF rank-and-file and command. This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic aimed at the 102nd TrO sector.
Counter-IO: Ukrainian outlets (RBK-Ukraine) are preemptively shutting down rumors regarding Turkey/Qatar mediation (16:52), likely to maintain focus on the US-led Miami summit and prevent "peace fatigue" narratives.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue ballistic strikes on the M-15 corridor until the Mayaky bridge is confirmed impassable. In Zaporizhzhia, expect a consolidation of forces around Stepnohirsk, supported by ground robots, to prepare for a push toward Zaporizhzhia city’s southern suburbs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the ballistic suppression of Odesa's logistics to launch a surprise tactical landing or intensified air assault on the Bessarabia border crossings, aiming to cut off the Romanian GLOC entirely before the Miami talks.
Timeline: The next 6-12 hours will likely see an intensification of "Shahed" strikes on Odesa to mask additional ballistic launches against logistics nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL) Mayaky Damage Assessment: BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) required for the Mayaky Bridge following the 16:49 ballistic strike. Is the bridge structurally collapsed or merely closed?
(URGENT) Zaporizhzhia Rail Repair: Monitor RF engineering units in Zaporizhzhia for rail repair activity. Estimate time-to-restore for the sabotaged segment.
(TACTICAL) NRTK Vulnerability: Identify the specific model and control link of the "NRTK" UGVs used by the Ulyanovsk VDV to develop EW or kinetic countermeasures.
(STRATEGIC) Sevastopol Targets: Identify the nature of the 5 targets downed in Sevastopol. Were these decoy drones or a coordinated Storm Shadow/ATACMS attempt?
