(16:15, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF forces claim to have captured Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia axis), including the central multi-story district and the Stepnohirsk Solar Power Plant (FES).
(16:29, MoD Russia, LOW):[UNCONFIRMED] RF Ministry of Defense claims the encirclement of Myrnohrad (Dimitrov); released POW footage alleging critical UAF conditions in the sector.
(16:29, HUR/Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Intelligence intercept reveals Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) crews are being forcibly reassigned to infantry "storm" units due to manpower shortages.
(16:13/16:15, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Official US delegation conducted field tests of Ukrainian maritime drones in-country; formal cooperation on naval drone production proposed.
(16:17, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): Upcoming strategic meeting between Umerov and US representative Witkoff expanded to include Germany, France, and the UK.
(16:16/16:35, Colonelcassad, HIGH): 20-minute air raid alert triggered in Sevastopol; no kinetic impacts confirmed, suggesting a UAF reconnaissance probe or successful AD interception.
(16:17, Butusov Plus, HIGH): UAF 63rd Mechanized Brigade confirms extensive use of fiber-optic guided drones in the Lyman sector.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has accelerated on the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts. The reported fall of Stepnohirsk (16:15) is a critical development; Stepnohirsk serves as a primary defensive anchor for the southern approaches to Zaporizhzhia city. If confirmed, this indicates a rupture in the UAF outer defensive ring. Simultaneously, RF logistics interdiction against the M-15 (Mayaky Bridge) is causing cascading delays at the Romanian border (16:29), threatening the primary southern GLOC for Western aid.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Capabilities:
Zaporizhzhia Axis: RF forces are transitioning from tactical probes to urban seizure in Stepnohirsk. The capture of the Stepnohirsk FES provides the enemy with elevated terrain and structural cover for ATGM positions.
Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad Axis: RF claims of encirclement in Myrnohrad (16:29) likely represent a "pincer" maneuver intended to bypass heavy urban fortifications. This remains UNCONFIRMED but aligns with MDCOA.
Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Cannibalization: The reassignment of specialized naval crews to infantry roles (16:29) indicates a severe crisis in RF infantry replacement rates, suggesting that "volunteer" and "contract" reserves are exhausted in the Southern Military District.
Information Operations:
Putin’s "Direct Line" rhetoric (16:27) emphasizes a total lack of accountability for civilian casualties, framing the conflict as a defensive necessity. This serves to solidify domestic support ahead of 2026 mobilization requirements.
The promotion of Chinese claims regarding a potential "Russian collapse" (16:14) by Ukrainian sources is likely a counter-IO effort to seed internal distrust between Moscow and Beijing.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture & Readiness:
Lyman Sector: Integration of fiber-optic drone technology (16:17) provides UAF with a significant tactical advantage, as these systems are immune to standard RF electronic warfare (EW) "bubbles."
Strategic Technology: The US delegation’s testing of maritime drones (16:13) signals a shift toward the "long-term sustainment" phase of the war, potentially unlocking US components for Ukrainian-designed USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels).
Critical Sector Pressure: The 102nd TrO (Huliaipole) and now Stepnohirsk units are under extreme psychological and kinetic pressure. C2 stability in these sectors is the highest priority for the General Staff.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Narratives: RF MoD is utilizing POW testimonials (16:29) to specifically target the morale of defenders in the Myrnohrad pocket, synchronized with claims of encirclement.
Economic Stress: The reported spike in RF vodka prices (16:16) and aviation technical failures (from previous sitrep) are indicators of domestic economic strain, though not yet at a level to impact frontline operations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will consolidate gains in Stepnohirsk and attempt to push toward the northern outskirts to bring Zaporizhzhia city within tube artillery range. In the East, RF will continue the pincer movement around Myrnohrad to force a UAF withdrawal from the Pokrovsk salient.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported C2 breakdown in the 102nd TrO (Huliaipole) and the breakthrough at Stepnohirsk to launch a dual-axis offensive aiming to isolate the entire Zaporizhzhia grouping before the Miami summit.
Strategic Forecast: The Sevastopol alert (16:16) suggests UAF is preparing a multi-domain strike (Naval Drones + Storm Shadow/ATACMS) to coincide with the diplomatic meetings in Miami.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL) Stepnohirsk Verification: Immediate satellite imagery or geolocated UAF drone footage required to confirm RF presence in the central multi-story district.
(URGENT) Myrnohrad Encirclement: Assess the status of the "North-South" supply routes into Myrnohrad. Is the city physically cut off, or is it only under fire control?
(TACTICAL) BSF Reassignment: Identify which RF units are receiving BSF personnel. This will indicate which sectors are suffering the most critical manpower shortages.
(TECHNICAL) Fiber-Optic Counter-Measures: Monitor RF milbloggers for reports of successful countermeasures against fiber-optic drones (e.g., physical wire-cutting teams).
