(15:53, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): Deployment of the "Oreshnik" (IRBM) system to Belarus is nearing completion; UAF has identified the launch sites and shared data with NATO partners.
(15:34, DeepState / 15:53, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Critical command and control (C2) breakdown reported within the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade (Obr TrO) at Huliaipole; reports of officer sabotage and incitement to desertion.
(15:36, Alex Parker Returns / 15:49, Операція Z, HIGH):Mayaky Bridge (M-15) confirmed closed following an Iskander-M cluster munition strike; transport collapse reported in southern Odesa region.
(15:52, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): European Council approved a €90 billion interest-free loan for Ukraine.
(16:02, Шеф Hayabusa, LOW):[UNCONFIRMED] Claim of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean Sea.
(15:43, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Ukrenergo announced nationwide scheduled power outages for tomorrow across most regions due to grid instability.
(16:02, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Significant spike in RF aviation technical failures; 10 engine-related incidents/accidents reported between Dec 10–16.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from infrastructure attrition to functional isolation of the Southern Front and internal destabilization of the Zaporizhzhia defensive line. The confirmed closure of the Mayaky Bridge (M-15) via cluster munition strikes (15:36) has effectively severed the primary Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) to Romania. Simultaneously, the reported breakdown in discipline within the 102nd TrO at Huliaipole (15:34) creates a "soft point" in the FEBA (Forward Edge of the Battle Area) that RF forces are likely to exploit. In the strategic domain, the "Oreshnik" deployment to Belarus (15:53) extends the RF's high-readiness strike envelope to include all of Poland and Germany, likely intended as leverage for the upcoming Miami summit.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Capabilities:
Zaporizhzhia Axis (Huliaipole): RF forces are likely monitoring the reported internal friction within the UAF 102nd TrO. We expect an immediate increase in reconnaissance-in-force or tactical probes to test the integrity of this sector.
Southern Axis (Interdiction): The transition from Shahed strikes to Iskander-M cluster munitions against the Mayaky Bridge (15:36) indicates a shift toward permanent structural denial rather than temporary harassment.
Strategic Weapons: The "Oreshnik" move to Belarus is a multi-domain signal. It provides a shorter flight time to European capitals and creates a permanent hypersonic threat on NATO’s doorstep.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Aviation Attrition: The report of 10 aviation incidents in one week (16:02) suggests that sanctions on high-tech engine components are causing a "cascading failure" in the RF's civilian and potentially military transport fleets.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture & Readiness:
Internal Stability Crisis: The situation in the 102nd TrO (Huliaipole) is the highest current priority. Reports of "officer sabotage" suggest a hybrid influence operation or a localized collapse of morale that threatens the hinge between the Southern and Eastern fronts.
Defensive Success: The 42nd OMBr "Perun" unit successfully repelled a mechanized assault in the Novopavlivka direction (16:02), and UAF forces near Pokrovsk destroyed a Russian "Osa" SAM system (15:35), maintaining localized tactical initiative despite overall pressure.
External Support: Poland is reportedly considering the transfer of 8 MiG-29s (15:45), though this is linked to a "tech-swap" for anti-drone capabilities, indicating a move toward transactional military aid.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Targeted Sabotage Narrative: The messaging regarding the 102nd TrO (15:53) is being amplified by both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian channels. This suggests a coordinated effort to trigger "SJW" (Self-Willed Abandonment of Unit) incidents ahead of an RF offensive.
Strategic Intimidation: Putin's rhetoric regarding Kaliningrad (15:37) and the Oreshnik deployment serve to frame any Western intervention as a direct threat to the RF heartland, aiming to paralyze NATO decision-making during the Miami talks.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will launch a localized offensive in the Huliaipole sector within the next 12 hours to exploit the reported C2 breakdown. Concurrently, they will maintain the UAV/Missile "shuttle" over Odesa and Mykolaiv (16:02) to prevent UAF engineers from beginning bridge repairs.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Oreshnik" units in Belarus to conduct a "demonstration strike" or a high-altitude burst to signal capability, while simultaneously launching an armored breakthrough at the Huliaipole-Orekhov gap, aiming to collapse the Zaporizhzhia front before the weekend peace summit.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL) 102nd TrO Status: Immediate SIGINT and human intelligence (HUMINT) verification required to confirm the extent of the "officer sabotage." Is the unit still combat-effective, or is a relief-in-place (RIP) required?
(OPERATIONAL) M-15 Bypass: Confirm if heavy equipment can utilize the Palanca (Moldova) bypass given the "transport collapse" (15:36). Assess the capacity of secondary dirt roads in freezing conditions.
(STRATEGIC) Mediterranean Strike: Verify the claim of a Russian tanker strike (16:02). If confirmed, this indicates a significant expansion of the UAF's long-range maritime strike capability into the Mediterranean AOR.
(TECHNICAL) Oreshnik Sites: Satellite confirmation of specific "Oreshnik" TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) positions in Belarus to differentiate between active sites and decoys.
