(15:33, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Physical damage confirmed at the Mayaky Bridge (M-15) following a multi-stage strike involving 10 Shahed UAVs overnight and additional missile strikes today.
(15:31, Air Force UAF, HIGH): New wave of 10 Shahed UAVs and "combat foam" decoys (пенопласт) detected inbound from the Black Sea toward Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Fontanka.
(15:06, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): RF Vostok Group claims the "liberation" (capture) of Herasymivka and Peschanoye (Dnepropetrovsk region). [UNCONFIRMED/CRITICAL]
(15:33, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Defense Minister Umerov initiated high-level consultations in the US with European partners regarding defense cooperation.
(15:18, Zelenskiy / Official, HIGH): President Zelensky met with the Marshal of the Polish Sejm in Warsaw; discussions focused on air defense, sanctions, and economic recovery.
(15:25, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): A Russian reconnaissance UAV was found downed in Turkey, suggesting an expansion of RF SIGINT/ELINT flight paths.
(15:17, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): UAF units near Kharkiv are implementing physical anti-drone netting over major roads to counter increased RF FPV drone activity.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has shifted to the interdiction of Southern GLOCs and the exploitation of the Herasymivka sector. The physical damage to the Mayaky Bridge (15:33) validates previous assessments of a coordinated effort to isolate Odesa from Romanian logistics. Concurrently, the claim by the RF MoD (15:06) that Herasymivka has been captured represents a significant threat to the Dnepropetrovsk regional boundary, potentially opening a maneuver corridor for the RF 5th Tank Brigade.
Weather remains a factor; visual evidence from Lyman (15:09) shows heavy snow and freezing conditions, which likely favors static defense but complicates casualty evacuation (CASEVAC), as seen in the Pokrovsk sector (15:28).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Tactical Maneuver & Capabilities:
Southern Axis: The RF Vostok Group is claiming tactical success in Herasymivka (15:06). If confirmed, this suggests they have crossed the Gaychur River line mentioned in the 15:01 daily report.
Technical Adaptation: The use of "combat foam" decoys (15:29) within Shahed swarms is a deliberate tactic to oversaturate UAF Air Defense (AD) radars and deplete interceptor stocks ahead of a likely larger missile strike.
Aviation/Strike: The admission by President Zelensky that the "Oreshnik" (hypersonic IRBM) cannot currently be intercepted (15:22) is being heavily weaponized in RF information operations to create a sense of tactical helplessness.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Social Support Purge: Putin’s directive to align benefits for pre-SVO contract holders (15:33) indicates an attempt to address long-standing grievances within the professional core of the RF military, likely to maintain retention during the winter offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Force Posture & Readiness:
Infrastructure Defense: UAF is adapting to the FPV threat near Kharkiv via "total netting" of roads (15:17), a low-cost but effective physical countermeasure.
Tactical Success: The Desantno-Shturmovi (DShV) successfully destroyed an RF ammunition depot in the Kupiansk direction (15:32), which may temporarily slow the RF tempo in that sector.
Strategic Depth: Ministerial-level talks in the US (Umerov) and Poland (Zelensky) suggest a synchronized push for "long-term security guarantees" (DS Belief 0.11) and immediate AD replenishment to counter the Oreshnik threat.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Defeatism Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker Returns) are circulating a narrative that the US is seeking to end the Ukraine conflict within days to pivot to Venezuela (15:13). This is assessed as a HIGH-priority disinformation campaign intended to undermine UAF morale during the Miami talks.
NATO ISR Monitoring: RF sources (Rybar) are tracking NATO ISR activity (AWACS, RQ-4) in the Black Sea with high granularity (15:17), likely to telegraph their awareness of Western intelligence support and justify further strikes near the Romanian border.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to strike the Mayaky/Zatoka bridge complex to ensure the physical isolation of the Odesa garrison. Concurrently, RF forces will attempt to consolidate the "liberated" Herasymivka to establish a bridgehead for a push toward the Dnepropetrovsk regional administrative borders.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF exploits the "Oreshnik" psychological advantage to launch a precision strike on a key C2 node in Kyiv or Odesa while UAF logistics are paralyzed by the M-15 bridge closure, aiming to force a collapse of the Southern Front before the Miami summit concludes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL) Herasymivka Status: Immediate satellite or drone reconnaissance required to verify RF claims of "liberation." Confirm if UAF forces have retreated to a secondary defensive line.
(TECHNICAL) Combat Foam Decoys: Collect fragments of the "пенопласт" (foam) decoys used in the Odesa swarm. Determine if they carry active EW emitters or are purely passive radar reflectors.
(LOGISTICS) Odesa Supply: Assess the throughput capacity of the Palanca (Moldova) bypass. Can it sustain the 1,000+ vehicle daily requirement for the Southern Front?
(STRATEGIC) Turkey Drone Incident: Determine the specific variant of the Russian drone found in Turkey (15:25). Was it an Orlan-10/30 or a more advanced SIGINT platform?
