(11:06, SBU/STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Ukrainian SBU "Alpha" unit reportedly struck a Russian shadow fleet tanker, the QENDIL, in neutral waters of the Mediterranean Sea. The operation allegedly utilized aerial drones at a range of 2,000 km from Ukrainian territory; if confirmed, this represents a significant expansion of UAF's strategic reach (STERNENKO, 11:04; Бутусов Плюс, 11:21).
(10:59, ТАСС, MEDIUM): Putin publicly acknowledged communicating with a brigade commander in Seversk, clarifying the earlier RF MoD "liberation" claim. This suggests the city is not fully controlled but is the site of intense high-level Russian focus (ТАСС, 10:59).
(11:02, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Multiple Russian UAV groups detected originating from the Black Sea toward Odesa and from the north toward Snovsk (Chernihiv Oblast), continuing the aerial fixation campaign (Air Force, 11:02, 11:04).
(11:00, ZOVA, HIGH): Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration reports a rising casualty count following earlier Russian strikes, confirming the lethality of recent inland aviation activity (ZOVA, 11:00).
(10:57, MoD Ukraine, MEDIUM): Ukrainian defense industry capacity reportedly reached $35 billion in 2025, a 35-fold increase from 2022, signaling a pivot toward domestic sustainment (Оперативний ЗСУ, 10:57).
(11:24, ASTRA, HIGH): Drone debris confirmed in Lipetsk (Russia), impacting a residential building; indicates ongoing UAF reciprocal pressure on Russian logistical hubs (ASTRA, 11:24).
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by the Russian "Results of the Year" strategic Information Operation (IO). While Putin attempts to project domestic stability and a willingness to negotiate ("the ball is in Kyiv's court"), the UAF has executed a potentially unprecedented long-range strike in the Mediterranean. Kinetically, the focus has shifted to the Huliaipole sector ("Battle for Huliaipole") and continued aerial pressure on Odesa and Zaporizhzhia.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Ground Maneuver & Tactics:
Seversk Axis: Narrative shift detected. Putin’s mention of "fighting in Seversk" replaces the MoD's earlier definitive "liberation" claim. This indicates the sector remains contested, likely due to stubborn resistance from the UAF 81st Brigade.
Southern Axis: Russian sources are now highlighting the "Battle for Huliaipole" (Воин DV, 11:00). This likely serves as a secondary fixing operation to prevent UAF reserves from moving toward the Herasymivka bridgehead (see previous daily report).
Capabilities & Logistics:
UAV Countermeasures: Putin admitted that mobile internet and cellular restrictions in border regions (e.g., Belgorod) are deliberate measures to disrupt Ukrainian UAV C2 (ТАСС, 11:00).
Industrial Status: RF continues to signal military-industrial cooperation with China (ТАСС, 11:26) to mitigate the "heavy drone" deficit admitted earlier.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Strategic Reach: The reported strike on the QENDIL tanker in the Mediterranean suggests a new capability to interdict Russian energy logistics far beyond the Black Sea. This forces the RF "Shadow Fleet" to calculate risks in previously "safe" international waters.
Defense Industrial Base (DIB): The reported $35B capacity indicates that Ukraine is successfully scaling production of ammunition and drones, reducing reliance on fluctuating Western aid timelines.
Air Defense: Remains active in the Odesa and Chernihiv sectors as RF continues UAV saturation tactics.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Deception: The Kremlin is using the "Direct Line" to soften its image, with Putin apologizing for pension delays and discussing childcare reforms (MoD Russia, 10:51; ТАСС, 11:15). This is a classic "Good Tsar" maneuver to maintain domestic morale during high-casualty operations.
Hybrid Narratives: Russian sources are amplifying claims of "bio-hybrid robots" in Germany (Дневник Десантника, 11:24) and NATO expansion in Lithuania (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 11:01) to frame the conflict as a broader struggle against Western technological and territorial encroachment.
Discrepancy Note: Russian channels (Два майора, 11:21) are attempting to debunk the SBU tanker strike, claiming visual evidence does not match the location. UNCONFIRMED (LOW confidence) until independent satellite imagery is available.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain high-intensity UAV and aviation strikes on Odesa and Zaporizhzhia for the next 6-12 hours to capitalize on the psychological momentum of the year-end broadcast. Ground assaults in the Huliaipole and Seversk sectors will intensify to provide "heroic" content for Russian state media.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the "Oreshnik" units in Belarus (from previous report) to conduct a "demonstration strike" or high-readiness drill near the border to overshadow the SBU's maritime success and regain the strategic initiative.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL):Verify Mediterranean Strike. Obtain BDA/Satellite imagery of the tanker QENDIL (IMO: 9284544) to confirm damage and determine the launch platform for the UAF drones (Was it a sea-based launch or a true 2,000km range flight?).
(URGENT):Herasymivka Monitor. Despite the focus on Huliaipole, monitor for the 5th Tank Brigade’s movement. The "Battle for Huliaipole" narrative may be a mask for the primary armored breakout attempt at Herasymivka.
(TACTICAL):Electronic Warfare Assessment. Evaluate the effectiveness of Russia’s "transition to domestic software" for drone C2 as mentioned by Putin; determine if this indicates a new vulnerability or a hardened C2 link.
