(10:38, MoD Russia, LOW): Russian MoD claims the "liberation" of Seversk, featuring a Hero of Russia recipient; this directly contradicts earlier UAF 81st Brigade reports and is assessed as UNCONFIRMED and likely high-level disinformation for the "Results of the Year" broadcast.
(10:46, GSZSU/Liveuamap, HIGH): Confirmed Russian aviation strikes on Havrylivka and Khrystoforivka (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), marking a significant inland expansion of the aerial fixation campaign previously centered on the contact line.
(10:46, GSZSU/Liveuamap, MEDIUM): UAF successfully repelled 4 Russian assaults in the Kursk/Sumy border sector; confirms the northern axis remains active despite the focus on southern breakthroughs.
(10:37, TASS/Two Majors, HIGH): Russian Central Bank officially lowered the key interest rate to 16% during the Putin broadcast; assessed as a synchronized economic IO to project domestic stability.
(10:43, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): US Congress introduced a bill for enhanced sanctions; represents a potential long-term threat to RF's military-industrial sustainment.
(10:43, ASTRA, HIGH): Putin publicly admitted a deficit in "heavy drones," despite claims of 83 billion RUB in private donations for the SVO; indicates persistent gaps in RF long-range/heavy ISR-strike capabilities.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity kinetic "punctuation" of the Kremlin’s "Results of the Year" strategic information operation. While RF political leadership projects economic resilience and "peace" terms, RF aviation has expanded strikes into the Dnipropetrovsk hinterland. The battlefield geometry shows the most significant ground pressure in the Pokrovsk and Oleksandrivka (Zaporizhzhia) sectors, while the Seversk sector has become a primary target for Russian "fake news" regarding total capture.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Ground Maneuver & Tactics:
Seversk Axis: The RF MoD is now claiming the "liberation" of Seversk (MoD Russia, 10:38). Given the lack of corroborating visual evidence and the 81st Brigade's earlier denial (10:12), this is assessed as a scripted success for the presidential broadcast.
Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk: The shift from UAV detection to confirmed aviation strikes in Havrylivka and Khrystoforivka suggests the RF is aggressively targeting the depth of the Ukrainian logistics corridor supporting the Southern front.
Assault Frequency: High-tempo assaults continue across Kupyansk, Lyman, and Pokrovsk (GSZSU, 10:46), indicating an attempt to fix UAF reserves across the entire front simultaneously.
Capabilities & Logistics:
UAV Deficit: Putin’s admission regarding a lack of heavy drones (ASTRA, 10:43) confirms that while RF leads in FPV/tactical drone volume, they remain reliant on Iranian/domestic Shahed variants for depth, lacking indigenous heavy-lift strike platforms.
Economic Maneuver: The 0.5% rate cut is a tactical economic "gift" to the Russian population to mitigate the psychological impact of the high-tax environment discussed earlier (Новости Москвы, 10:38).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Defensive Integrity: UAF remains in a high-readiness defensive posture. The successful repelling of 4 assaults in the Kursk/Sumy direction (GSZSU, 10:47) demonstrates that northern border security remains intact despite intensive RF aerial pressure.
Combat Activity: Significant defensive battles are ongoing in the Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk directions (11+ settlements engaged), requiring high ammunition expenditure and rapid casualty evacuation cycles.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Strategic Deception: The Kremlin is attempting to manufacture a "Seversk Victory" to provide a tangible tactical success for the ongoing "Direct Line" event.
Hybrid Narratives: Pro-Russian channels (Elena Nikitina DNR) are flooding the space with "normalcy" narratives (St. Nicholas Day, playgrounds, church restorations) to contrast with reports of Ukrainian strikes on DNR territory (10:30).
Western Support: The reporting on US sanction bills is being used by Ukrainian channels to maintain domestic morale and signal continued international commitment.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue high-volume aviation strikes on Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia rear areas for the next 6-12 hours to disrupt the movement of UAF reserves. The "Seversk liberation" claim will be amplified by all state media, potentially followed by a localized, high-risk Russian push to provide visual evidence (e.g., flag-planting).
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the distraction of the year-end broadcast and the aviation strikes, the RF 5th Tank Brigade (referenced in the daily report) attempts a rapid night-time exploitation of the Herasymivka bridgehead toward the Velyka Novosilka line.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Imagery/SIGINT verification of Seversk. Determine the actual line of contact (LOC) to confirm/deny the RF MoD's "liberation" claim.
(URGENT): BDA for the aviation strikes in Havrylivka and Khrystoforivka. Determine if rail or road logistics hubs were the primary targets.
(PRIORITY): Monitor for any movement of the "Oreshnik" missile units in Belarus (referenced in daily report) following Putin's remarks on "security guarantees."
(TACTICAL): Assess the impact of the RF key rate change on their internal military-industrial production capacity; will this facilitate easier credit for small-scale drone manufacturers?
