(09:19, TASS, LOW): Vladimir Putin claims Russian forces have established full control over Kupyansk and have encircled approximately 3,500 UAF personnel. UNCONFIRMED/HIGH PROBABILITY OF IO.
(09:16, TASS, MEDIUM): RF claims the capture of Seversk and imminent "liberation" of Krasny Lyman, projecting a subsequent axis of advance toward Slovyansk.
(09:34, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Multiple KAB (guided bomb) strikes detected inbound to Zaporizhzhia City; follows earlier reports of communication interdiction in the sector.
(09:22, Operativniy ZSU, HIGH): UAF 47th Mechanized Brigade ("Magura") confirmed the successful use of a "zenith drone" (interceptor UAV) to down an RF FPV drone targeting civilians in Sumy Oblast.
(09:28, Operativniy ZSU/ASTRA, HIGH): A major repatriation operation has concluded; 1,003 bodies of Ukrainian servicemen were returned in exchange for 26 Russian bodies.
(09:26, ASTRA, LOW): Reports circulating that the US Treasury (OFAC) has removed sanctions on several companies supplying the Russian Military-Industrial Complex (MIC). UNCONFIRMED; likely misinterpretation of license routine.
(09:31, WarGonzo, LOW): Claims that Norway is financing the delivery of S-300 systems to Ukraine from an undisclosed third-party source. UNCONFIRMED.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently saturated by the Russian Federation (RF) "Results of the Year" strategic information operation. Kinematically, the RF is attempting to synchronize battlefield "victories" with Vladimir Putin's live broadcast. While several claims (Kupyansk encirclement, Seversk capture) lack independent visual confirmation, they indicate the primary axes of intended RF exploitation. Concurrently, tactical aviation (KABs) and UAVs continue to pressure the Northern (Kharkiv/Sumy) and Southern (Zaporizhzhia) flanks.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Ground Maneuver & Strategy:
Donetsk/Luhansk Sector: The RF narrative has shifted aggressively toward the Slovyansk/Kramatorsk operational objective. Claims regarding Seversk and more than 50% control of Konstantinovka (09:16) suggest a coordinated effort to collapse the UAF defensive belt in the Donbas.
Kupyansk Axis: The claim of a 3,500-man encirclement (09:20) is a significant escalation. Even if hyperbolic, it suggests a critical localized concentration of RF forces (likely 1st Guards Tank Army elements) attempting to pinch off the UAF bridgehead on the Oskil River.
Zaporizhzhia/Vostok Group: Putin specifically praised the "Vostok" (East) Group of Forces for advances from Gulyaipole toward the Dnipropetrovsk border (09:31). This confirms the threat identified in the previous daily report regarding a Southern breakout.
Capabilities & Logistics:
Infiltration Tactics: RF "Hero of Russia" testimony (09:31) highlights the use of small-group infiltration tactics to bypass UAF forward observers near Seversk, indicating a continued shift away from massed armor toward "creeping" infantry-led assaults.
Economy: Putin claims a 1% GDP growth for 2025 and high MIC resilience (09:34), signaling a commitment to a long-duration war of attrition.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Strategic Posture: President Zelenskyy's meeting with Polish official Karol Nawrocki (09:06) suggests urgent bilateral coordination, potentially regarding the Belarusian "Oreshnik" threat or logistics for the reported S-300 acquisition (09:31).
Tactical Successes: The 47th Brigade’s use of interceptor drones in Sumy (09:22) demonstrates UAF's technical adaptation to the RF "Shahed" and FPV saturation, providing a cost-effective counter to low-altitude aerial threats.
Humanitarian: The return of 1,003 fallen soldiers (09:28) is a significant morale-shaping event, though the 1000:26 exchange ratio is being exploited by RF media to suggest disproportionate UAF casualties.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Primary Narrative: Putin is projecting "Strategic Initiative" (09:15), claiming UAF has exhausted its reserves. This is intended to induce defeatism within Ukraine and fatigue among Western donors.
Disinformation/Hybrid:
The OFAC sanctions removal claim (09:26) is being used to suggest the collapse of Western economic pressure.
Narrative framing of the Crocus City Hall attack (09:09) continues to be used to radicalize the domestic Russian audience against external "enemies."
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue to announce tactical "captures" throughout the duration of the "Results of the Year" broadcast. Expect intensified KAB and drone strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv as kinetic support for Putin's rhetoric of "success on all fronts."
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): If the claim of a 3,500-man encirclement in Kupyansk is even partially true, the RF may launch a heavy-armor push to liquidate the pocket while UAF command is distracted by the strategic messaging and the Southern threat. This would represent a major operational defeat and fracture the Northern front.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Immediate satellite/ISR verification of Kupyansk and Seversk. Are UAF units maintaining cohesive lines, or has a breakthrough occurred?
(URGENT): Confirm the status of the S-300 transfer via Norway. Verification of this capability is vital for countering the increased KAB threat in Zaporizhzhia.
(PRIORITY): Assessment of "Vostok" Group strength on the Gulyaipole-Dnipropetrovsk axis. Determine if the 5th Tank Bde has begun forward movement.
(TECHNICAL): Monitor OFAC/US Treasury official channels to debunk or confirm the sanctions relief claims to prevent domestic market/morale panic.
