(08:45, TASS, HIGH): Belarusian President Lukashenko confirms the "Oreshnik" strategic missile system has officially entered combat duty in Belarus.
(08:56, TASS, HIGH): Vladimir Putin’s "Results of the Year" (Direct Line) broadcast has commenced; expect high-volume propaganda and potential kinetic "demonstrations" during the event.
(08:42, Operativniy ZSU, HIGH): Ministry of Energy reports massive damage to power generation and distribution networks across Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Chernihiv oblasts.
(08:43, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Russian forces are actively attempting to sever Ukrainian communications in Malokaterynivka (Zaporizhzhia sector).
(08:53, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia have not blocked the €90B EU loan to Ukraine, contrary to earlier Russian narratives.
(08:41, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian MoD confirms the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in massed strikes between Dec 13-19, targeting "infrastructure and military objectives."
(09:00, Arkhangel Spetsnaza, LOW): Speculation that "Geran" (Shahed) UAVs were responsible for the downing of the UAF Mi-24 helicopter. UNCONFIRMED.
(08:56, Sternenko, LOW): Claims that US Treasury (OFAC) removed sanctions on companies supplying Russian VPK equipment. UNCONFIRMED and likely a misinterpretation of routine license updates or a deliberate disinformation plant.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently dominated by the Russian "Direct Line" strategic information operation. Kinematically, the Russian Federation (RF) has shifted from localized tactical strikes to a broad-front degradation of the Ukrainian energy grid, affecting six major oblasts. This infrastructure pressure is likely intended to create a "collapse" narrative for the domestic Russian audience during the presidential broadcast. In the strategic domain, the activation of the Oreshnik system in Belarus significantly reduces the decision-making window for Western and Ukrainian air defense commands.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Ground & Special Operations:
Zaporizhzhia Sector: The attempt to "cut off communications" in Malokaterynivka (08:43) is a tactical indicator of localized offensive preparation. This correlates with the previously reported imminent breakout threat at the Herasymivka bridgehead.
Electronic/Drone Warfare: Pro-Russian sources are promoting "self-defense" tactics for small infantry groups against drones (08:49), suggesting that despite RF advancements in fiber-optic FPVs, UAF drone saturation remains a primary obstacle to RF maneuver.
Strategic Assets:
Oreshnik Deployment: Lukashenko’s denial of the Slutsk location (08:46) while confirming combat readiness is a classic maskirovka tactic designed to complicate UAF/NATO ISR efforts.
Kinzhal Usage: The confirmed use of hypersonic assets indicates a high-priority effort to penetrate hardened or high-value targets in the strategic rear.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Diplomatic Posture: President Zelenskyy is currently in Warsaw for an official meeting with Karol Nawrocki (09:04), likely coordinating regional security responses to the Belarusian missile deployment.
Infrastructure Resilience: UAF and Ministry of Energy personnel are engaged in damage control across six oblasts. The grid degradation is significant, moving beyond Odesa to the entire eastern and southern border regions.
Force Development: UAF is emphasizing OSINT and advanced reconnaissance training (09:00) to counter RF's reliance on specialized "Akhmat" and VDV drone units.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Primary Effort: Total saturation of the Russian information space with Putin's "Results of the Year." Russian state media is using theatrical elements (e.g., journalists with "want to marry" signs or dolls with official faces) to project a sense of normalcy and stability (08:45, 09:02).
Disinformation/Narrative Shaping:
Macron's "Contact": Reports of Macron seeking to renew contact with Putin (08:45) are being amplified to suggest Western fatigue.
NATO Hesitation: Narratives claiming the US "does not want" Ukraine in NATO (08:24) are being used to erode morale.
Sanctions Relief: The claim of US sanctions removal (08:56) is highly suspicious and likely intended to project an image of failing Western economic pressure.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain a high tempo of artillery and UAV strikes for the next 4–6 hours to provide a "kinetic backdrop" for Putin's speech. A major "success" claim (possibly regarding the Kupyansk/Yubileyny clearing) is expected during the broadcast.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the communication interdiction in Malokaterynivka, the RF 5th Separate Tank Brigade initiates a crossing at the Herasymivka bridgehead while the Ukrainian command is focused on the strategic messaging of the Oreshnik deployment and widespread grid failures.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
(CRITICAL): Immediate ISR tasking to Malokaterynivka to determine if the "communication cutoff" is the precursor to an armored assault.
(URGENT): Technical verification of the "Geran-vs-Helicopter" claim. If confirmed, this indicates a new air-to-air capability for RF loitering munitions.
(PRIORITY): Confirm the current location of the 37th GMRB and 5th Tank Bde assembly areas relative to the reported comms interdiction.
(STATEGIC): Cross-reference OFAC recent actions to confirm/deny the sanctions removal claim (08:56).
