Situation Update (UTC)
DTG: 2025-12-19 07:35Z
Key updates since last sitrep
- (07:17, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia have formally declined to participate in the €90 billion EU loan package for Ukraine.
- (07:16, ASTRA/CNN, MEDIUM): Western intelligence identifies the Russian "shadow fleet" as a platform for maritime ISR and hybrid operations, with armed ex-Wagner/security personnel embedded on tankers in European waters.
- (07:31, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts.
- (07:27, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian UAVs (Shahed/Geran) detected north of Nikopol, vectoring toward Dnipro and Kamianske.
- (07:06, WarGonzo, MEDIUM): Reported Grad MLRS salvos active in the Krasny Lyman sector, corroborating high-intensity engagements in the area.
- (07:33, TASS, HIGH): Russian authorities in Bataysk (Rostov Oblast) declared a day of mourning following a successful Ukrainian UAV strike.
Operational picture (by sector)
- Northeast (Sumy/Kharkiv): RF has resumed KAB strikes on Sumy (07:31). Tactical activity remains high in Kupyansk, with Russian sources claiming "rescue" operations (Kotsnews, 07:15), likely masking localized infantry advances or extraction of trapped units.
- East (Donetsk/Lyman): Heavy kinetic activity near Krasny Lyman with MLRS (Grad) usage reported (07:06). This aligns with earlier reports of RF attempts to breach the defensive line. KAB strikes are also intensifying in the Donetsk sector (07:31).
- South (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): A new UAV threat vector is active from the south, specifically targeting the industrial hubs of Dnipro and Kamianske (07:27).
- Maritime (Baltic/European Waters): The RF "shadow fleet" is now assessed as a multi-domain threat, utilizing commercial vessels for intelligence collection and potential sabotage (07:16).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Hybrid/Maritime: The integration of armed personnel and ISR equipment on "shadow fleet" tankers suggests Russia is preparing for (or conducting) grey-zone operations against European maritime infrastructure.
- Tactical Artillery: The use of Grad MLRS in the Krasny Lyman sector (07:06) indicates a transition from small-unit infiltration to higher-intensity area-denial or preparatory fires for an assault.
- Strategic Air: Continued KAB and UAV pressure remains the primary tool for RF to fix UAF reserves and degrade logistics in the rear (Sumy/Dnipro).
- Domestic Control: RF is tightening internal security through new digital controls, including mandatory paid registration for imported mobile devices (07:13).
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Deep Strikes: UAF long-range UAV capabilities confirmed effective via the strike on Bataysk, causing sufficient damage to trigger a local state of mourning (07:33).
- Strategic Resilience: Internal polling indicates a robust "no territorial concessions" stance (Donbas) among the Ukrainian public (KMIS, 07:09), maintaining domestic political stability despite external diplomatic friction.
- Air Defense: UAF Air Force is actively tracking and intercepting multiple UAV vectors targeting the Dnipro River axis.
Information environment / disinformation
- EU Fracture Narrative: Russian and pro-Russian channels are heavily amplifying the refusal of Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia to support the €90B loan (07:17, 07:27) to project an image of collapsing Western unity.
- US Support Sabotage: Disinformation is circulating regarding the "suspension of US Green Cards" linked to domestic shootings (07:17, 07:24). This is a coordinated attempt to foster anxiety regarding the reliability of US-Ukrainian strategic ties.
- State Spectacle: Russian state media (TASS) is saturating the environment with "behind-the-scenes" content from Putin’s year-end event (07:08, 07:24), emphasizing stability and economic growth (e.g., caviar production).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will continue the KAB/UAV bombardment of Dnipro and Sumy to mask ground movements. Putin’s year-end speech will likely include a "victory" claim regarding Krasny Lyman or a significant diplomatic pivot based on the EU funding split.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing "shadow fleet" assets for a kinetic or electronic warfare provocation in European waters to distract NATO from the escalating Southern armored threat (Herasymivka).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- (CRITICAL): Immediate verification of the tactical situation in Krasny Lyman. Are RF forces engaged in street fighting or is this area-denial MLRS fire?
- (URGENT): Assess the impact of the Bataysk strike—was a specific logistical or C2 node neutralized?
- (PRIORITY): Identify specific "shadow fleet" tankers currently loitering near critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic/North Sea.
IPB ANALYSIS SUMMARY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The conflict has expanded into a dual-track escalation: high-intensity kinetic strikes in the East (Lyman/Donetsk) and a sophisticated hybrid/diplomatic offensive in Europe. The refusal of three EU members to back the €90B loan creates a strategic vulnerability that Russia is already exploiting via Information Operations (IO).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
RF is shifting from pure attrition to "coercive leverage." By using the shadow fleet for ISR and the EU split for political pressure, they seek to undermine the long-term sustainment of UAF while maintaining tactical pressure through KABs and MLRS. The Bataysk strike suggests RF rear-area security remains porous.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
UAF maintains high morale and public support for territorial integrity. However, the air domain remains contested as KAB launches in Sumy and Donetsk continue to bypass localized AD. The diplomatic front is now the primary area of risk, with the EU funding package facing implementation hurdles.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Russia is winning the "volume" war in the cognitive domain this morning, using Putin's year-end event and the EU split to dominate headlines. The "Green Card" disinformation indicates a pivot toward targeting the US domestic audience and its perceived support for Ukraine.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Expect a significant surge in RF kinetic activity in the next 6 hours to provide "success" metrics for Putin's event. The Krasny Lyman axis is the most likely location for a near-term RF breakthrough attempt.
//END OF REPORT//
