(06:39, ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, HIGH): EU confirms €90 billion financial package for Ukraine (2026-2027), structured as a "reparation loan" to be repaid once Russia pays war damages.
(06:56, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New waves of Russian BpLA (UAVs) detected transiting Kherson Oblast toward Vysokopillya.
(06:41, Fighterbomber, MEDIUM): Russian aerospace forces utilized 4x FAB glide bombs to strike a UAF logistical point (water pumping station conversion) in an unspecified sector.
(07:03, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual confirmation of "Geran" (Shahed) loitering munition strikes in Vedenka and Ternova (Kharkiv Oblast).
(06:48, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, MEDIUM): UAF tactical analysis warns that underestimation of RF "Mavic" drone operations is a primary factor enabling Russian infantry infiltration.
(06:46, Басурин о главном, MEDIUM): Increased Russian naval presence in the Baltic Sea to escort oil tankers, likely a response to heightened Western surveillance or perceived interdiction threats.
(06:55, ТАСС, MEDIUM): Hungary (FM Szijjártó) has formally offered to host a summit between the US and Russian presidents.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high, transitioning from the massive overnight drone swarm to targeted kinetic strikes and infantry infiltration. The conflict is increasingly defined by "small-drone" tactics in the gray zone and strategic-level financial maneuvering in Brussels and Moscow.
Weather: Continuous winter conditions; visibility remains a factor for both drone operations and the effectiveness of thermal-guided munitions.
Key Terrain: High activity in the Vysokopillya (Kherson) axis and Kharkiv border areas suggests Russia is attempting to maintain multi-vector pressure to prevent UAF from consolidating reserves.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Threat Assessment:
Infiltration Tactics: Russian forces are increasingly successful in using commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) drones, specifically Mavics, to mask small-unit infantry movements (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 06:48). This suggests a shift toward persistent, low-signature tactical pressure.
Aviation/Precision Strikes: The use of FAB glide bombs against infrastructure (Fighterbomber, 06:41) confirms the RF's continued reliance on stand-off precision strikes to degrade UAF logistics.
Force Sustainment: Fundraising efforts for the 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (Два майора, 07:04) indicate that even "Guards" units are relying on non-state logistical support for basic equipment, suggesting ongoing friction in the RF formal supply chain.
Naval Posture: RF naval movements in the Baltic (06:46) indicate a broadening of the "hybrid" theater, using military assets to protect economic interests against perceived sanctions enforcement.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Force Posture:
Sustainment: The EU’s €90B commitment (06:39) provides a long-term strategic buffer, crucial for counteracting the "attrition narrative" promoted by Moscow.
Tactical Challenges: UAF is facing a critical need to adapt EW and ISR protocols to counter the ubiquity of RF small-drone infiltration.
Morale/Cohesion: UAF and civilian authorities are maintaining high social cohesion through synchronized national rituals, such as the 09:00 (local) minute of silence (07:00, multiple sources).
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Cognitive Domain:
Russian "Year-End" IO: Preparation for Putin’s annual press event (06:36) will likely serve as the primary platform for Russian strategic narratives regarding "negotiation readiness" (amplified by Hungary’s summit offer) versus "battlefield inevitability."
EU Friction Narratives: Pro-Russian channels are highlighting Belgian PM statements to frame the EU as internally divided over the seizure of Russian assets (Операция Z, 06:53).
Regional Destabilization: The adoption of a new Electoral Code in Georgia (06:42) is being framed by RF-aligned sources (Rybar) as a "sovereign defense" against the West, indicating Russian support for the current Georgian administration's anti-Western tilt.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the current intensity of drone/glide bomb strikes in the Kharkiv and Kherson sectors to fix UAF forces while Putin’s Year-End event broadcasts "peace" overtures to Western audiences.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RF utilizes the reported transit of UAVs toward Vysokopillya (06:56) as a screen for a localized cross-river raid or amphibious probing action to disrupt UAF lines of communication in Kherson.
Timeline: Peak information operations are expected in the next 4-8 hours as Moscow's "Year-End" event commences.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
P1 (CRITICAL): Verify the impact of the Geran strikes in Vedenka/Ternova. Has this strike impacted UAF's ability to reinforce the Kupyansk axis?
P2 (URGENT): Monitor for specific troop concentrations of the 33rd Guards Motor Rifle Regiment. Their recent fundraising activity may precede an increase in operational intensity in the Dobropilsky salient.
P3 (PRIORITY): Assess the technical shift in RF "Mavic" usage—are they utilizing new frequencies or modified software to bypass existing UAF tactical EW?
