(03:39:04, TASS, HIGH): Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia have officially refused to participate in the €90 billion EU financing package for Ukraine.
(04:03:29, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF "Vostok" Group has deployed pre-series "Mangas" heavy hexacopters for frontline logistics (ammunition/rations) to storm units.
(03:49:04, TASS/Prozorov, LOW/IO): Russian state media promoting claims by SBU defector Prozorov regarding long-term Western military presence (since 2014) to reinforce "proxy war" narratives.
(03:53:57, Два майора, HIGH): RF observing Military Counterintelligence Day; expect heightened internal security and signal discipline within RF rear areas today.
Operational picture (by sector)
South (Zaporizhzhia/Herasymivka): No new confirmation of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade crossing the bridgehead as of 0405Z. However, the 03:09Z KAB strikes reported previously suggest the shaping phase is complete. The window for the armored exploitation (0400Z–0600Z) is currently open.
South (Logistics): The introduction of "Mangas" heavy UAVs (04:03Z) by the Vostok grouping indicates an RF adaptation to UAF FPV interdiction of ground supply lines. These heavy-lift drones allow "last-mile" resupply to isolated storm groups, potentially increasing the tempo of infantry-led assaults even if ground routes are contested.
Strategic Logistics (EU): The refusal of Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia to fund the €90B package (03:39Z) contradicts the Belgian PM's earlier assertion of absolute EU unity. This creates a critical long-term sustainment risk for UAF, specifically regarding the "zero-percent" financing model for 2026-2027.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Logistics: The deployment of pre-series heavy-lift UAVs suggests RF is scaling up drone-based logistics to sustain high-intensity operations in the South. This bypasses traditional UAF artillery interdiction of logistics nodes.
Information Operations: RF is utilizing the "Day of Military Counterintelligence" and Prozorov’s "revelations" to bolster domestic morale and justify the "special military operation" as a defensive measure against NATO.
Internal Security: Heightened RF counterintelligence activity (03:53Z) may lead to increased friction for UAF-aligned partisan groups or HUMINT assets operating in occupied territories today.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Sustainability: UAF Command must account for the sudden diplomatic friction in the EU (03:39Z). While immediate munitions flows are likely secure, the long-term procurement of advanced systems (2026+) is now subject to heightened political risk.
Defensive Posture: Units in the Zaporizhzhia sector remain on high alert for the 5th Tank Brigade's movement.
Information environment / disinformation
EU Fragmentation: RF state media (TASS) is prioritizing reports on EU divisions (Hungary/Czechia/Slovakia) to demoralize UAF frontline troops and undermine the Belgian PM’s "firm stance" narrative.
Hybrid Platform Expansion: Rybar’s expansion to the "MAX" platform (04:03Z) indicates an RF intent to diversify information dissemination channels to circumvent potential Western platform bans.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will launch the armored thrust at Herasymivka before 0600Z. The 5th Tank Brigade will attempt to exploit the 1km breach while using "Mangas" UAVs to maintain supply to forward elements.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF utilizes the political friction in the EU to launch a massive psychological operation, claiming Western support has collapsed, timed precisely with a successful armored breakthrough and a "demonstration" launch of the Iskander-1000/Oreshnik.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
P1 (CRITICAL): Immediate visual/SIGINT confirmation of 5th Tank Brigade armor crossing the Dnieper/Herasymivka.
P2 (URGENT): Identify the technical signatures and operating frequencies of the "Mangas" heavy UAVs to develop EW countermeasures.
P3 (PRIORITY): Assessment of the impact of the Hungarian/Czech/Slovak funding refusal on immediate ammunition delivery schedules for Q1 2026.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Summary
Factor
Assessment
Battlefield Geometry
Critical friction point at Herasymivka bridgehead; RF utilizing "vertical" logistics (UAVs) to overcome UAF ground interdiction.
Enemy Capabilities
Integration of pre-series heavy-lift UAVs ("Mangas") into tactical logistics; high confidence in RF intent for an imminent armored push.
Sustainment
Long-term UAF funding security downgraded from HIGH to MEDIUM following EU summit outcome (TASS: 03:39Z).
Information Domain
RF exploiting "Day of Military Counterintelligence" for internal cohesion; aggressive amplification of EU funding divisions (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.158 for propaganda).
