(03:09:41, UA Air Force, HIGH): Multiple KAB (guided aerial bomb) launches detected targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
(03:15:18, Colonelcassad, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Claims of the first combat launch of an "Iskander-M" variant with an 800km range (informally designated "Iskander-1000").
(03:16:31, UA Air Force, HIGH): OWA-UAVs (mopeds) detected over the Black Sea, vectoring toward Chornomorsk (Odesa Oblast).
(03:25:32, ASTRA, HIGH): Confirmed casualty in Odesa following earlier drone/missile activity.
(03:27:04, TASS, MEDIUM): Belgian PM De Wever stated the EU has "no intention" of returning frozen assets to Russia, hardening the diplomatic stance on sustainment funding.
(03:32:57, TASS/Gov. Slyusar, HIGH): Significant air attack repelled over Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog; power outages confirmed in Rostov and two outlying districts due to infrastructure damage.
Operational picture (by sector)
South (Zaporizhzhia): The tactical situation is entering a critical phase. The 03:09Z KAB strikes are assessed as the "shaping" component of the predicted Herasymivka armored breakout. By targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, RF is attempting to suppress UAF tactical reserves and C2 nodes immediately prior to the 0400Z-0600Z window for the 5th Separate Tank Brigade’s movement.
South (Odesa/Bessarabia): RF has shifted its UAV vector from the Mayaky/M15 corridor toward Chornomorsk (03:16Z). This maritime approach confirms the "swing" tactic identified in the 03:05Z report, designed to bypass land-based air defense screens by utilizing the Black Sea maritime zone for final approach.
RF Rear (Rostov/Taganrog): UAF deep-strike assets successfully interdicted energy infrastructure in the Rostov region (03:32Z). This is a high-impact disruption of the primary logistics and C2 hub for the Southern Occupation Forces. Power outages in Taganrog—a key rail and port node—will likely delay RF second-tier logistical movements toward the Zaporizhzhia front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Strategic Missiles: The report of an 800km-range Iskander (03:15Z) remains UNCONFIRMED. However, it mirrors the "Oreshnik" narrative from the previous 24h context. Whether a technical reality or an Information Operation (IO), the intent is to signal that Western Ukrainian logistics hubs (previously considered safe from short-range OTRKs) are now within the RF kinetic footprint.
Aviation: Increased KAB activity (03:09Z) indicates RF Su-34/35 platforms are operating with high intensity near the Zaporizhzhia contact line, likely utilizing standoff ranges to avoid UAF medium-range AD.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Deep Strike Operations: UAF has demonstrated continued reach and effectiveness by striking the Rostov/Taganrog energy grid. This multi-domain pressure is timed to coincide with the expected RF offensive, forcing the enemy to divert internal security and engineering resources to the rear.
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) remain active in Odesa, though the casualty in Odesa (03:25Z) indicates some leakers or debris-fall impact in urban areas.
Information environment / disinformation
Economic Defiance: The Belgian PM’s statement (03:27Z) effectively counters previous RF propaganda regarding EU "fatigue." This provides a high-confidence signal to UAF forces that the €90B package (2026-2027) is politically insulated.
VDV Morale: Russian milblogger "Paratrooper's Diary" (03:32Z) is active, suggesting VDV units (likely the 106th Guards) are in high-readiness posture and maintaining internal communication channels, possibly preparing for air-assault or flanking maneuvers in the North/East.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): RF will initiate the ground phase of the Herasymivka offensive before 0600Z. Armored columns from the 5th Tank Brigade will attempt to exploit the 1km breach, supported by the ongoing KAB suppression of UAF rear lines.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RF conducts a "demonstration" launch of the purported 800km Iskander-1000 against a railway hub in Western Ukraine to paralyze the flow of EU-funded munitions, while simultaneously launching a swarm of fiber-optic FPVs against UAF anti-tank positions at Herasymivka.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
P1 (CRITICAL): Signal intelligence (SIGINT) or satellite imagery confirmation of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade crossing the Dnieper/Herasymivka bridgehead.
P2 (URGENT): Technical verification of the "Iskander-1000." Radar telemetry required to confirm if the 800km flight profile is a new capability or a misidentification of existing systems.
P3 (PRIORITY): Damage assessment of the Rostov/Taganrog energy grid. Determine the impact on RF rail-loading operations for the 260th GRAU ammunition transfers.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Summary
Factor
Assessment
Battlefield Geometry
RF attempting to "fix" UAF in Zaporizhzhia via KABs while "flanking" Odesa via maritime UAV routes.
Enemy Capabilities
High-intensity KAB usage indicates localized air superiority; unconfirmed Iskander-1000 suggests a potential shift in strategic depth threats.
Sustainment
RF rear (Rostov) under kinetic pressure, likely causing friction in the "last-mile" logistics for the Southern offensive.
Information Domain
EU political resolve remains firm (Dempster-Shafer belief: 0.41); RF countering with "wonder-weapon" narratives (Iskander-1000/Oreshnik).
