(02:35:58, Николаевский Ванёк, HIGH): Two (2) additional OWA-UAVs (mopeds) detected on approach to Mayaky (Odesa Oblast).
(02:39:39, РБК-Україна, HIGH): EU summit participants have formally agreed on a €90B financial aid package for Ukraine for the 2026–2027 period.
(02:43:53, Николаевский Ванёк, MEDIUM): Kinetic interception confirmed for the UAVs approaching Mayaky ("minus on them").
(02:44:40, UA Air Force, HIGH): New groups of UAVs launched from Kherson Oblast, vectoring toward the Black Sea maritime zone.
(02:51:11, TASS, MEDIUM): EU Commission President von der Leyen stated that unblocking frozen Russian assets is now possible via a "qualified majority" vote, potentially bypassing single-member vetoes.
(02:52:43, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): Yellow level air threat alert cleared in Lipetsk (RF); indicates a stabilization of the RF rear following earlier UAF deep-strike activity.
(03:01:50, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens reactivated in Zaporizhzhia Oblast following a short lull.
Operational picture (by sector)
South (Odesa/Bessarabia): The tactical focus remains on the Mayaky/M15 highway corridor. Successful interceptions (02:43Z) suggest UAF Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are effectively positioned. However, the launch of new groups from Kherson toward the Black Sea (02:44Z) indicates a likely "swing" maneuver to attack Odesa or Izmail from the seaward flank, bypassing terrestrial AD screens.
South (Zaporizhzhia): The reactivation of sirens (03:01Z) ends a brief period of calm. This aligns with predicted high-intensity preparation for the 0400Z-0600Z offensive window at the Herasymivka bridgehead.
RF Rear (Lipetsk): Threat downgraded from "Red" to "Yellow" and now cleared (02:52Z). RF internal security forces appear to have contained the immediate impact of the earlier strike.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
OWA-UAV Tactics: RF is employing a "pulsing" drone strategy—sending small groups (2-3 units) at short intervals to Mayaky to deplete local AD magazines and fix MFGs, while simultaneously preparing a larger maritime-vector swarm from Kherson.
Strategic Deterrence/Hybrid: The timing of RF reports regarding EU internal friction (Orban's comments, 02:46Z) is likely intended to dampen the morale boost of the newly confirmed €90B package.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Finance: UAF long-term sustainment has been significantly reinforced by the €90B EU agreement (2026-2027). The shift toward "qualified majority" voting for Russian assets (02:51Z) represents a critical breakthrough in overcoming political bottlenecks for defense funding.
Air Defense: Successful kinetic engagements near Mayaky demonstrate high readiness of short-range AD assets protecting Southern GLOCs.
Information environment / disinformation
EU Disunity Narrative (02:46:04, TASS): RF state media is amplifying Hungarian PM Orban’s characterization of EU loans as "lost money." ASSESSMENT: This is a localized IO effort to counter the news of the €90B package agreement. It targets domestic Russian audiences and European skeptics to portray Western aid as futile.
Asset Seizure: The von der Leyen statement regarding "qualified majority" is being framed in RF channels as a legal escalation, likely to be used as a pretext for further "retaliatory" economic or kinetic measures against Western interests.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will continue maritime-based drone swarming toward Odesa to mask the final deployment of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade. Expect a massive localized artillery preparation followed by armored movement at the Herasymivka bridgehead between 0400Z and 0600Z.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the new drone groups in the Black Sea to target grain infrastructure or remaining maritime transit, while launching a simultaneous KAB strike on Zaporizhzhia C2 nodes during the armored breakout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
P1 (CRITICAL): Flight path confirmation for the "new groups" of UAVs in the Black Sea. Are they looping toward Odesa or heading further south toward the Danube ports?
P2 (URGENT): Electronic intelligence (ELINT) on RF tactical aviation frequencies in the Southern sector. Increased radio traffic will be the final indicator of the Herasymivka assault.
P3 (PRIORITY): Ground-level verification of the "Hulyaipole" situation. Determine if the previous MILBLOGGER reports were a diversion or a legitimate secondary axis of advance.
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Summary
Factor
Assessment
Battlefield Geometry
Persistent multi-vector UAV pressure on the Odesa/Bessarabia corridor. Shift in flight paths to maritime vectors suggests an attempt to bypass land-based EW/AD.
Enemy Capabilities
High-cadence, low-volume UAV launches (2-3 units) used as a tactical probe/fixer. Sustained ability to generate new launch groups from Kherson.
Sustainment
Strategic long-term outlook for UAF significantly improved (€90B package). RF logistics (260th GRAU) assessed as fully forward-deployed for the imminent offensive.
Information Domain
RF is aggressively attempting to frame EU financial support as a "sunk cost" via Hungarian proxies to undermine Western political resolve.
