(02:34:46, TASS/Costa, HIGH): EU leaders have officially extended all existing sanctions against the Russian Federation (RF) for an additional six months.
(02:24:00, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): US has imposed sanctions on 29 vessels of Iran's "shadow fleet," directly targeting the logistical pipeline for RF OWA-UAV and missile components.
(02:21:07, TASS/Merz, MEDIUM): Further details on the €90B EU package indicate the financing will be provided at 0% interest, enhancing long-term fiscal sustainability for the UAF.
(02:12:03, Nikolaevskiy Vanyok, MEDIUM): Three (3) OWA-UAVs (mopeds) are confirmed approaching Mayaky (Odesa Oblast), indicating a bypass or flanking maneuver of coastal defenses toward the Dniester Estuary region.
(02:10:16, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian milbloggers report an intensification of the "Battle for Hulyaipole." UNCONFIRMED ground assault, but suggests a potential secondary axis of pressure (Zaporizhzhia sector).
(02:08:20, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air raid sirens cleared for Zaporizhzhia, suggesting a temporary lull in tactical aviation/KAB strikes in the immediate city vicinity.
(02:10:54, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): Red level UAV threat cleared in Lipetsk (RF) following the earlier debris impact.
Operational picture (by sector)
South (Odesa/Bessarabia): The threat to the Odesa corridor has evolved from a maritime-only swarm to include inland OWA-UAV vectors. The approach to Mayaky (02:12Z) threatens the M15 highway, a critical ground line of communication (GLOC) for Western aid entering from the south.
South (Zaporizhzhia): While air alerts have cleared in the regional capital, the "Battle for Hulyaipole" claim (02:10Z) aligns with the previously identified RF intent to fix UAF forces across the entire southern front to prevent reinforcement of the Herasymivka breach.
East (Donetsk): UAVs previously reported vectoring toward Slovyansk/Dobropillya (02:04Z) remain active. No kinetic impacts confirmed in the last 30 minutes.
RF Rear (Lipetsk): Situation stabilized following the engagement of UAF deep-strike assets. RF internal AD remains on high alert but has downgraded the immediate threat level.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Ground Maneuver: RF is likely conducting high-intensity reconnaissance-in-force or localized assaults near Hulyaipole. This is assessed as a shaping operation to mask the primary armored breakout expected at the Herasymivka bridgehead.
Strategic Logistics: The US sanctions on the Iranian shadow fleet (02:24Z) represent a significant interdiction of RF's long-term sustainment capabilities, specifically regarding OWA-UAV replenishment.
C2/Aviation: The air all-clear in Zaporizhzhia (02:08Z) may indicate a "re-cocking" period for RF tactical aviation ahead of the projected 0400Z-0600Z offensive window.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Strategic Posture: UAF has secured a favorable diplomatic outcome with the 6-month EU sanctions extension (02:34Z) and the 0% interest terms on the €90B package. This provides the necessary "strategic depth" to absorb the economic costs of the current defensive operations.
Air Defense: Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are currently repositioning to intercept the three UAVs vectoring toward Mayaky.
Information environment / disinformation
Casualty Narrative (02:13:04, TASS): RF media is aggressively pushing claims of UAF-inflicted child casualties in Sevastopol (citing "238 killed"). ASSESSMENT: This is a classic "atrocity propaganda" pivot designed to justify the ongoing swarming attacks on Odesa and potential strikes on civilian infrastructure as "retaliatory."
EU Discord: RF efforts to portray EU aid as failing (previous reporting) have been completely neutralized by official EU statements regarding the €90B package and sanctions extension.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: RF will maintain UAV pressure on Odesa (Mayaky axis) and Slovyansk to fix UAF reserves while initiating the main armored thrust from the Herasymivka bridgehead between 0400Z and 0600Z.
MDCOA: RF utilizes the "Hulyaipole" escalation to draw UAF anti-tank reserves away from the Herasymivka-Velyka Novosilka axis, followed by a combined-arms breakthrough toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
P1 (CRITICAL): Confirmation of RF ground activity levels in Hulyaipole. Is this a major assault or localized shelling?
P2 (URGENT): Tracking of the 3 OWA-UAVs at Mayaky. Confirmation of successful interception or target impact (Infrastructure vs. GLOC interdiction).
P3 (PRIORITY): Status of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade’s assembly areas near the river crossing. Any movement detected in the last 60 minutes?
Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Summary
Factor
Assessment
Battlefield Geometry
RF is widening the active front by introducing localized pressure on Hulyaipole while maintaining deep-strike vectors toward Mayaky.
Enemy Capabilities
Coordinated use of Iranian-sourced OWA-UAVs continues despite strategic sanctions; RF is attempting to exploit UAF's need to defend multiple disparate axes (Odesa vs. Donbas).
Sustainment
RF logistics face long-term pressure from US sanctions on Iran (shadow fleet), but short-term ammo readiness remains high due to the emptied 260th GRAU Arsenal.
Information Domain
RF has shifted to high-intensity "atrocity propaganda" regarding Sevastopol to prepare the domestic audience for potential escalation.
