(23:37Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New UAV threat detected on a northeast vector towards Kherson City.
(23:48Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAVs in Poltava Oblast are now transiting/targeting Dykanka from the northwest.
(23:51Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reported strike on a Thermal Power Plant (TPP) in Oryol, RF. Residents report unidentified "missiles" (likely long-range OWA-UAVs). UNCONFIRMED BDA.
(23:59Z, TASS, HIGH): EU leadership discussing €90bn aid package for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, providing long-term sustainment viability.
(23:59Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH):Ballistic missile threat cleared for the southeast region; alert cancelled.
(00:05Z, CyberBoroshno, MEDIUM): Active crowdfunding for tactical equipment continues, indicating persistent small-unit resource gaps.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northeast (Sumy/Poltava): The aerial threat has moved from the border (Hadyach) deeper into Poltava Oblast. UAVs over Dykanka (23:48Z) suggest a vector targeting energy infrastructure or logistics hubs supporting the eastern front.
South (Kherson/Zaporizhzhia): A new UAV vector from the NE toward Kherson (23:37Z) indicates the RF is expanding its saturation of the Dnieper right bank. While the ballistic threat has cleared (23:59Z), tactical aviation and UAV pressure remain high.
Deep Strike (RF Interior): Following the UAV threat in Lipetsk (23:32Z), a kinetic event is reported at the Oryol TPP (23:51Z). This demonstrates a coordinated UAF effort to strike RF energy-logistics nodes in depth, potentially to disrupt the "0600Z offensive window" identified in previous reports.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aerial Saturation: The RF is maintaining a high volume of UAV activity across three distinct axes: Poltava (central-north), Kherson (south), and the previously reported Kirovohrad vector. This is assessed as a persistence tactic to deplete UAF AD stocks and fix Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) ahead of ground operations.
Tactical Pause (Ballistics): The clearance of the ballistic threat (23:59Z) may indicate a reset period for reload or a transition to a different strike phase (e.g., synchronized cruise missile launch).
Asymmetric Vulnerability: Successful strikes on Oryol (if confirmed) highlight RF's inability to fully protect critical infrastructure (TPP) even as they conduct their own strategic bombing campaign.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Logistics Operations: UAF is actively targeting the RF power grid (Oryol TPP). This serves as a "tit-for-tat" response to the Odesa utility failures and complicates RF logistics in the central-western military districts.
Air Defense: UAF AD remains effective at tracking multi-vector UAV threats, though the "Attention!" (23:49Z) signal preceding the ballistic clearance suggests a period of high-alert readiness.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Funding Narrative: TASS reporting on the €90bn EU package (23:59Z) indicates the RF is closely monitoring Western financial support, likely preparing domestic narratives to frame this as "Western escalation."
Internal Stability Messaging: RF state media continues to broadcast mundane domestic policy (January wages, fireworks fines) to project stability amidst drone strikes on Oryol and Lipetsk.
Grey Zone Provocation: The "Maryana" comment by НгП раZVедка (23:56Z) is assessed as low-level psychological pressure, likely targeting specific UAF political or military figures to induce internal friction.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The RF will continue UAV harassment until approximately 0400Z-0500Z to maximize UAF fatigue. This will be the precursor to the anticipated heavy armor push at the Herasymivka bridgehead near 0600Z.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A sudden re-initiation of the ballistic threat, coupled with a massed cruise missile strike from the Black Sea/Caspian, timed to hit UAF tactical reserves exactly as the 5th Tank Bde begins its breakout attempt.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
BDA Oryol TPP (URGENT): Confirm extent of damage to the Oryol Thermal Power Plant. Does it impact RF military logistics or rail movement in the sector?
Herasymivka Forward Edge: Need visual/SIGINT confirmation of RF 5th Tank Bde engine starts or movement from assembly areas to the river crossing.
UAV Type ID: Confirm if the UAVs over Dykanka and Kherson are standard Shahed-136 or the new fiber-optic variants reported in the Northeast.
Actionable Recommendations:
Grid Resilience: Warn central and southern energy grid operators to prepare for "cascading" failures if the Oryol strike triggers a retaliatory wave against UAF TPPs in the next 3 hours.
Armor Alert: Units in the Velyka Novosilka and Herasymivka sectors must maintain maximum readiness (Condition Red) despite the ballistic clearance; the ground threat remains critical for the 0600Z window.
Electronic Warfare: Deploy localized jamming specifically on the Kherson NE vector to disrupt UAV terminal guidance toward the city center.
