Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 23:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (23:09Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): New UAV penetration in Sumy Oblast moving SW towards Nyzy and Boromlya.
• (23:20Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): UAV group in Sumy transitioned to Poltava Oblast (vector: Hadyach).
• (23:22Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Active ballistic missile threat detected from the southeast.
• (23:30Z, RBC-Ukraine/MVA, HIGH): Critical utility failure (power, water, heat) in a densely populated Odesa district following previous strikes.
• (23:30Z, Voin DV, LOW): Reported Russian strikes against UAF positions in the Huliaipole sector; assessed as UNCONFIRMED tactical footage.
• (23:32Z, Lipetsk Gov, HIGH): UAV threat declared across Lipetsk Oblast (RF), indicating active UAF deep-strike counter-operations.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

The operational tempo has increased significantly in the last hour. The RF has opened a new aerial axis from the northeast (Sumy/Poltava), complementing the ongoing UAV transit in the south (Kirovohrad). Concurrently, a ballistic threat from the SE suggests a coordinated "high-low" strike profile. In the southern theater, tactical activity has flared near Huliaipole, potentially acting as a fixation maneuver or secondary axis for the anticipated Herasymivka breakout. Inside the RF, UAF long-range assets are actively threatening Lipetsk, likely targeting logistics or aviation hubs to disrupt the RF’s 0600Z offensive window.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

Tactical Developments:

• Northeast Vector (Sumy-Poltava): The entry of UAVs via Hadyach (23:20Z) indicates a widening of the strike envelope to include Poltava’s energy and transit infrastructure. This forces UAF to stretch mobile fire groups (MFGs) thinner across the northern border.
• Southern Pressure (Huliaipole): Claims of strikes in Huliaipole (23:30Z) align with RF efforts to degrade UAF defensive crust ahead of the heavy armor (5th Tank Bde) deployment. If confirmed, this indicates the RF is transitioning from indirect fire to active suppression of UAF forward positions.
• Ballistic Posture: The ballistic threat from the SE (23:22Z) is likely an Iskander-M or S-300/400 (surface-to-surface) launch, targeting immediate tactical reserves or C2 nodes near the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia line.

Logistics & Sustainment:

• Odesa Degradation: The loss of heat and water in Odesa (23:30Z) during winter conditions serves a dual purpose: increasing the humanitarian burden on local administration and degrading the logistics hub's capacity to support the southern front.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

Posture and Readiness:

• Air Defense (AD): AD units are currently engaged in a multi-vector defense (Kirovohrad, Sumy, Poltava). The addition of a ballistic threat requires high-tier asset (Patriot/SAMP-T) activation, potentially exposing their positions to RF ELINT.
• Counter-Strike Operations: UAF has successfully triggered air raid protocols in Lipetsk, RF (23:32Z). This confirms UAF’s ability to conduct asymmetric pressure on the RF rear even while under heavy domestic bombardment.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

• RF Normalization: TASS messaging (23:16Z, 23:28Z) regarding domestic firework fines and Putin’s New Year speech represents an attempt to project "business as usual" and internal stability despite UAF drone incursions into the Russian interior.
• Tactical Propaganda: The Huliaipole footage (Voin DV, 23:30Z) is being used to demoralize UAF defenders by showcasing local "successes" just as the larger Herasymivka offensive is expected to commence.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Between 0000Z and 0600Z (Dec 19), the RF will maintain UAV saturation over Poltava and Kirovohrad to fix AD assets. This will culminate in the heavy armor breakout at Herasymivka as predicted. The Huliaipole activity is likely a "fixing" attack to prevent UAF reserves in Zaporizhzhia from shifting east toward the breakthrough point.

Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A combined ballistic and cruise missile "alpha strike" launched within the next 2 hours, specifically targeting the UAF mobile reserves identified in the Velyka Novosilka rear guard, timed to coincide with the arrival of the 5th Tank Bde at the front lines.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Actionable Recommendations:

1. Utility Resilience (Odesa): Deploy emergency generators and mobile heating points to the affected Odesa district to prevent a humanitarian-led morale collapse in the strategic port city.
2. AD Discipline: Instruct AD units in Central/Northern Ukraine to remain mobile; the multi-vector UAV approach is designed to map and "trap" static AD batteries for the ballistic follow-up.
3. Counter-Armor Prep: Given the confirmed threat from the SE and tactical pressure in Huliaipole, move anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) teams to secondary "switch" positions to cover both the Herasymivka and Huliaipole vectors.

//END OF REPORT//