Situation Update (UTC)
DTG: 2025-12-18 20:45Z
Key updates since last sitrep
- (20:30Z, Tsaplienko, MEDIUM): Ukrainian strike confirmed against the "shadow fleet" oil tanker Valery Gorchakov in the port of Rostov-on-Don. The vessel was moored near the Novo-Shakhtinsky refinery terminal.
- (20:28Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches confirmed targeting the Zaporizhzhia/Donetsk border, with trajectory towards southeast Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- (20:30Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH): Secondary explosions and significant kinetic activity reported in Belgorod, Russia, following earlier reports of technical aviation failures.
- (20:06Z, Alex Parker, LOW): UNCONFIRMED report of a precision strike on a bridge in Odesa Oblast. If verified, this represents a deliberate effort to interdict the southern logistics corridor.
- (20:09Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs detected moving toward Ovidiopol (Odesa) and Velyka Oleksandrivka (Kherson).
- (20:26Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): 1st AC NGU "Azov" leadership (S. Palamar) issued a public appeal for standardized combat rewards for destroyed enemy equipment, indicating a push for administrative parity within the defense forces.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is currently characterized by a widening Russian aerial campaign and a significant Ukrainian counter-strike into the Russian deep rear. The RF is prioritizing the use of KABs to fix UAF reserves in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia border region, likely in preparation for the armored breakout at the Herasymivka bridgehead (ref: Daily Report 15:00Z).
Weather conditions remain conducive to night operations. A fatal traffic accident on the M-06 (Kyiv-Chop) near Gurovshchina (20:09Z) may cause localized delays on the primary Western supply route, though it is currently assessed as a non-combat incident.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS
Capabilities and Intentions:
- Strategic Logistics Degradation (HIGH): The reported strike on a bridge in Odesa (20:06Z) aligns with RF's ongoing attempt to isolate the southern theater from Western maritime and ground sustainment.
- Aviation Surge: RF Aerospace Forces (VKS) are maintaining a high sortie rate despite technical failures (Belgorod FAB-500 incident). The expansion of KAB strikes toward Dnipropetrovsk (20:28Z) confirms an intent to suppress UAF operational reserves.
- Internal Friction (MEDIUM): Public political infighting between Anatoly Wasserman and military-affiliated figures (20:18Z) suggests underlying tension regarding "schemes" and resource management within the RF legislative/military apparatus.
Recent Adaptations:
- Increased use of "Shadow Fleet" assets (tankers) for littoral logistics or sanctioned trade, now proven vulnerable to UAF long-range strike capabilities in the Sea of Azov/Don River basin.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES
Posture and Readiness:
- Long-Range Strike: UAF demonstrates continued capability to penetrate RF inland port defenses (Rostov). This forces RF to reallocate AD assets from the front to protect critical energy/maritime infrastructure.
- Administrative/Morale Factors: The "Azov" appeal for equipment bonuses (20:26Z) suggests a need for centralized policy updates to maintain combat motivation during high-intensity attrition warfare.
- Air Defense: Mobile units are actively tracking and engaging UAV swarms in Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kherson oblasts.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
Propaganda and Disinformation:
- Peace Negotiation Framing (MEDIUM): RF sources are amplifying reports of "Miami peace talks" (20:29Z) and attributing pessimistic quotes to David Arakhamia (20:33Z). This is a coordinated IO campaign to suggest that any negotiated settlement will be a Ukrainian capitulation, aiming to undermine domestic resolve.
- Belgorod Narrative Control: RF MoD is attempting to suppress details of the Belgorod explosions by issuing "Top News" daily briefs (20:32Z) that emphasize conventional frontline successes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
RF will continue the UAV and KAB saturation of Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk throughout the night. This air pressure is the final shaping operation for the 5th Tank Brigade’s expected breach attempt at Herasymivka, likely timed for the 0200Z-0500Z window to exploit maximum darkness.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
RF leverages the unconfirmed bridge strike in Odesa to launch a coordinated missile/drone wave against the remaining bypass routes, effectively sealing the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi region and isolating UAF maritime elements while simultaneously launching the Southern armored offensive.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap Description | Requirement / Tasking | Rationale |
|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL) | Odesa Bridge Status. | IMMEDIATE ISR: Confirm status of bridge infrastructure in Odesa (20:06Z report). | To determine if the southern GLOC (Ground Line of Communication) is severed. |
| P2 (URGENT) | Rostov Strike BDA. | IMINT: Assess damage to Valery Gorchakov and the Novo-Shakhtinsky terminal. | To evaluate the impact on RF maritime logistics and shadow fleet operations. |
| P3 (PRIORITY) | Dnipropetrovsk KAB Impacts. | ELINT/HUMINT: Identify if KABs are hitting rail hubs or assembly areas. | To confirm if the fixation campaign is successfully delaying UAF reserves. |
Actionable Recommendations:
- J3 (Ops): Immediately verify the status of the M-06 near Gurovshchina to ensure the fatal accident does not impede critical military movements toward the capital or the east.
- Logistics: Initiate contingency routing for Odesa-bound supplies in the event the 20:06Z bridge strike report is confirmed.
- Strategic Comms: Counter the "Arakhamia/Miami" narrative by highlighting the successful Rostov strike as evidence of continued Ukrainian initiative and the vulnerability of Russian strategic assets.
//END OF REPORT//
