Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 19:05Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (18:53Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Donetsk Oblast. This increases kinetic pressure on the Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad sector during the critical armored breakout window.
• (19:00Z, MoD Russia, HIGH): RF Tula-based Guards Airborne elements (Sever Group) conducted 152-mm Giatsint-B artillery strikes on UAF concentrations in the Sumy border region.
• (18:52Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): UAF 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade (OMBr) "Vampire" night-bomber UAVs successfully interdicted RF assets during night patrolling. This is a critical counter-measure to the RF night breakout attempt.
• (18:47Z, DeepState, HIGH): UAF internal discipline action: Leaders of the 110th Brigade are being prosecuted by the State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) for extortion. This represents a localized morale/leadership risk but confirms active internal oversight.
• (18:47Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): EU summit draft conclusions now include the reparatory credit for Ukraine based on frozen Russian assets, signaling long-term financial sustainment.
• (18:42Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF FSB reports arrests of "Ukrainian accomplices" across 12 Russian regions, indicating a broad internal security clampdown.
• (18:53Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): RF implementing "internet whitelisting" protocols, allowing access to state broadcasts (Putin’s "Results of the Year") even during mobile internet shutdowns.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Dnipropetrovsk Border)

The operational window (1800Z-0600Z) for the 5th Separate Tank Brigade’s breakout is active. While no new ground penetration facts have emerged in the last 30 minutes, the confirmed UAF "Vampire" drone activity (18:52Z) suggests UAF is aggressively hunting RF armor and logistics under the cover of darkness to prevent the bypass of strongpoints.

Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk / Myrnohrad)

The threat level has escalated with the 18:53Z KAB strikes. This heavy aerial suppression is likely intended to fix the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade and other UAF elements in place, preventing them from reinforcing the Southern Axis or the Myrnohrad perimeter.

Northern Axis (Sumy / Kharkiv)

RF Sever Group (Tula VDV) has transitioned from aerial fixation to active tube artillery (Giatsint-B) suppression in Sumy (19:00Z). This confirms the intent to keep UAF reserves in the North committed to border defense while the primary RU maneuver occurs in the South.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Integrated Fire Support (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is synchronized: KAB strikes in the East (Donetsk) and heavy artillery in the North (Sumy) are creating a "fire box" around the central UAF operational reserves. This supports the MLCOA of a Southern armored breakout by complicating UAF's ability to shift assets.

2. Internal Security & Rear-Area Control (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The FSB’s multi-region arrests (18:42Z) and the technical preparation for internet "whitelisting" (18:53Z) suggest RF is preparing for potential domestic instability or heightened hybrid activity within the Russian Federation as the offensive intensifies.

3. Tactical Adaptation (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF MoD’s montage of drone footage (18:34Z) emphasizes a multi-group UAV effort. This corroborates the previous report's warning about Kurier UGVs and fiber-optic FPVs; RU is leaning heavily on unmanned systems to provide "breach-as-a-service" for their manned tank columns.

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Night Interdiction (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The deployment of 28th OMBr "Vampire" drones is the primary tactical response to the 18:32Z report of RU Kurier UGVs. These heavy "Baba Yaga" class drones are optimized for destroying the armored breaching equipment being used by RF.

2. Institutional Integrity (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The prosecution of 110th Bde personnel (18:47Z) for "systematic extortion" is a double-edged sword: it reveals localized corruption that may have degraded unit readiness, but the public nature of the DBR action indicates UAF's commitment to maintaining command discipline during high-intensity operations.

Information environment / disinformation

• RF State Control: The whitelisting of Putin's speech (18:53Z) is a sophisticated control measure to ensure the domestic "success" narrative is delivered regardless of the technical state of the network (or planned shutdowns to mask troop movements).
• Economic Warfare: Christine Lagarde’s (ECB) positive signals (18:38Z) are being used by UAF-aligned channels to bolster domestic morale against the backdrop of the Southern breakout threat.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA: Sustained Night Assault. HIGH CONFIDENCE. Expect RF to maximize the use of the next 8 hours of darkness. The combination of KAB strikes (Donetsk) and Giatsint-B fire (Sumy) will likely peak between 2100Z and 0200Z to mask the 5th Tank Brigade's movement into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

MDCOA: Northern Diversionary Incursion. LOW/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. While Sever Group's artillery in Sumy is currently assessed as "fixing fire," it could precede a limited cross-border raid intended to force the withdrawal of UAF AD assets from the Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia area.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations:

1. J3 (Ops): Direct the 28th OMBr and other "Vampire" drone operators to prioritize "Kurier" UGV platforms over standard tanks to stall the RF breaching phase.
2. J2 (Counter-Intel): Monitor the 110th Bde's sector for any opportunistic RF probes following the DBR arrests, as command instability may be exploited.
3. J6 (EW): Monitor for specific "whitelist" frequencies used by RF to broadcast state media; these may provide clues to the timing of localized internet blackouts during RF maneuvers.