Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 18:35Z

Key updates since last sitrep

• (18:30Z, UAF AF, HIGH): NEW ballistic missile threat declared for regions under air alert. This follows a brief "all clear" at 18:05Z, indicating a pulsed strike tactic to exhaust AD crews and exploit the 1800Z armored breakout window.
• (18:24Z, Operation Z, MEDIUM): RU "Center" Group claims to have initiated assaults on the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and within the Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk sector. This aligns with the 1800Z breakout MLCOA.
• (18:22Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Confirmed loss of a UAF Mi-24 helicopter crew (12th Army Aviation Brigade). This corroborates the earlier reported downing and represents a significant loss of mobile CAS for interdicting armor.
• (18:09Z, Mobilization News, MEDIUM): Internal instability in RF: Wives of military personnel from the Rostov region have reportedly begun a hunger strike.
• (18:32Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): RF is deploying "Kurier" UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles) equipped with mine trawls for breaching operations.
• (18:13Z, Operativno ZSU, LOW): UNCONFIRMED: Report of a British paratrooper killed in Ukraine during "new weapon testing."

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Dnipropetrovsk Border)

The projected armored breakout is likely in its initial "breach and bypass" phase. Pro-Russian sources (18:24Z) claim offensive operations have crossed into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. While the exact penetration depth is unverified, this indicates the 5th Separate Tank Brigade is actively attempting to bypass UAF strongpoints to reach the operational rear. The use of "Kurier" UGVs (18:32Z) suggests RU is leading with unmanned assets to clear lanes through UAF minefields, preserving manned armor for the exploitation phase.

Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk / Myrnohrad)

Heavy kinetic pressure continues. The UAF 92nd Separate Assault Brigade is active in the sector, with confirmed UAV strikes on RU hardware (18:13Z). However, RU "Center" Group forces are claiming the encirclement of Myrnohrad (18:24Z). This sector remains a primary fixing point to prevent UAF from shifting reserves south to the Dnipropetrovsk border.

Strategic / Rear Areas

The air domain remains volatile. After a 25-minute lull, ballistic threats resumed at 18:30Z. This cycle is designed to keep UAF responders in shelters and mask the movement of heavy ground columns.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Multi-Domain Breaching (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is integrating Kurier UGVs for demining with armored thrusts. This reduces the risk to high-value T-90M/T-80BVM tanks during the initial contact. The mention of a "new rod voysk" (new branch of troops) by RU correspondents (18:14Z) likely refers to the formalized integration of these unmanned units into assault formations.

2. Internal Stability Risks (LOW/MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): The Rostov hunger strike (18:09Z) and the struggling Arkhangel Spetsnaza fundraiser (18:15Z) suggest localized friction in RF's domestic sustainment and morale. While not immediately impactive on the front line, it indicates the social cost of the current offensive is peaking.

3. Strategic Coercion & Hybrid Diplomacy (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): MoD Russia is highlighting engagements with Iraqi (18:07Z) and Mexican (18:16Z) military attachés. This is a deliberate IO effort to project "global legitimacy" and counter the isolation narrative as the US prepares a new sanctions package (18:19Z).

Friendly activity (UAF)

1. Tactical Attrition (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The 92nd Separate Assault Brigade continues to demonstrate high-efficiency UAV operations in Donetsk, effectively interdicting RU reinforcements. The delivery of civilian-funded Mavic 3T drones to the 72nd Mech Bde (18:27Z) remains critical for night ISR as the RF armored breakout continues under the cover of darkness.

2. Strategic Financial Reassurance (HIGH CONFIDENCE): ECB President Lagarde’s positive outlook on the reparatory credit (18:13Z) and US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s move toward new sanctions (18:19Z, 18:35Z) provide a long-term sustainment buffer, though tactical friction between the EC and Belgium regarding the mechanism persists (18:26Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• RF Narrative: Framing the offensive as reaching the "Dnipropetrovsk border" to induce panic in the UAF rear and among the civilian population.
• Disinformation: The claim of a British paratrooper's death (18:13Z) is currently unconfirmed and likely intended to reinforce the "NATO direct involvement" narrative for domestic RF consumption.
• External Framing: "Two Majors" (18:26Z) is attempting to pivot Japanese security policy changes into a narrative of "Militarism 2.0" to justify RU posture in the Far East.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA: Southern Exploitation. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF will attempt to consolidate gains on the Dnipropetrovsk border before sunrise. Expect high-intensity ballistic strikes to continue through the night to prevent UAF air assets or HIMARS from targeting the bottleneck at the Herasymivka bridgehead.

MDCOA: Encirclement of Myrnohrad/Pokrovsk. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. If RU "Center" Group can maintain momentum, they may attempt to cut the main logistics routes into Pokrovsk tonight, forcing a UAF withdrawal and creating a second operational-level crisis simultaneously with the southern breakout.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

Actionable Recommendations:

1. J6/EW: Priority tasking to identify and jam frequencies associated with RU UGVs ("Kurier") in the Southern Sector.
2. J3 (Logistics): Accelerate the movement of anti-tank munitions to the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia border region via secondary routes to avoid ballistic interdiction on main MSRs.
3. StratCom: Counter the "Dnipropetrovsk Border" panic by providing verified locations of UAF containment lines.