Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 16:37Z FOCUS: CULMINATION OF BREAKTHROUGH PREPARATION & COLLATERAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Key updates since last sitrep

• (16:22Z, Odesa OVA, HIGH): Confirmed Russian Federation (RF) drone strikes targeted the Dniester Estuary/Mayaky area three times, resulting in one civilian fatality and three children wounded in a civilian vehicle, confirming high collateral damage near the interdicted logistics node.
• (16:15Z, Tsapliyenko/Voenkor K, HIGH): Visual evidence from both UAF and RF sources confirms the successful Shahed/Geran drone strike on the critical bridge infrastructure in the Odesa region (Mayaky).
• (16:10Z, UAF AF, HIGH): UAV activity confirmed in Kharkiv Oblast near Kupyansk and Velykyi Burluk, signaling sustained RF reconnaissance and air fixation on the Northeast Axis.
• (17:26Z Dec 17, Меркушев, MEDIUM): RF FPV drone unit "Shaman" confirmed operating on the Zaporizhzhia front, confirming dedicated FPV resource allocation to the main effort area.
• (16:27Z, Rybar, MEDIUM): Pro-RF sources report ongoing tactical combat in the vicinity of Lyman, reinforcing previous reports of high contact intensity on the Eastern axis.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Herasymivka)

The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted (16:22Z), suggesting the kinetic preparation phase (KAB strikes) has temporarily concluded. The focus shifts to ground maneuver. New intelligence confirms a specialized RF FPV drone unit, "Shaman," is operational on the Zaporizhzhia front (17:26Z Dec 17). This indicates that the 5th Tank Brigade's armored exploitation will be preceded or directly supported by specialized unmanned aerial reconnaissance and anti-personnel/anti-armor clearance operations designed to overcome UAF static defensive positions.

Southern Maritime / Odesa Axis

RF interdiction of UAF logistics has succeeded both kinetically and psychologically. The successful drone strike on the Mayaky bridge is visually corroborated (16:15Z). Crucially, the subsequent attacks in the immediate area resulted in one civilian fatality (a mother) and three children injured while traveling in a civilian vehicle (16:22Z). This incident confirms that RF is maximizing pressure on critical GLOCs despite high risk of collateral damage, further complicating UAF reserve movement and civilian evacuation plans.

Eastern Axis (Lyman / Pokrovsk)

Contact remains high. RF milbloggers are reporting continuous fighting in the vicinity of Lyman (16:27Z). This does not confirm the city center collapse claimed by RF (Gerasimov, previous daily report), but it validates sustained RF pressure designed to fix UAF Eastern reserves. This fixation effort remains crucial to RF success in the South.

Northeast Axis (Kharkiv / Kupyansk)

RF reconnaissance and air fixation continues at elevated levels. UAF confirms UAV movements near Kupyansk and Velykyi Burluk (16:10Z). This activity is assessed as routine pre-strike surveillance or the deployment of fiber-optic FPV assets (as previously reported in the daily summary) attempting to bypass EW defenses in this sector.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Transition to Ground Maneuver (CRITICAL / HIGH CONFIDENCE): The operational indicators (KAB completion, GLOC interdiction, specialized FPV presence) strongly suggest RF is transitioning from the final preparation phase to the initiation of the armored exploitation at the Herasymivka bridgehead within the next 6-12 hours.

2. Intensified Hybrid and Strategic IO (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF high-level officials are reinforcing the strategic deterrence framework:

• Oreshnik Amplification: Lukashenko's public announcement regarding the strategic missile system (16:21Z) is designed for strategic coercion and immediate escalation perception.
• Threat Justification: SVR Director Naryshkin (16:15Z) and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov (16:18Z) are simultaneously pushing a narrative that the "Collective West" is the primary source of military threat, justifying impending RF offensive actions and strategic deployments.

3. Collateral Damage Acceptance (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The confirmed civilian casualties resulting from the multi-strike effort near Mayaky (16:22Z) demonstrates that RF commanders have a high threshold for civilian losses when targeting critical military objectives, increasing the risk to UAF logistic convoys and local populations.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF is managing kinetic and cognitive effects. The Patrol Police disseminated a PSA regarding pedestrian safety during darkness (16:17Z), reflecting UAF adaptation to the rolling blackouts and infrastructure threats. UAF Air Force is maintaining AD vigilance against continued UAV incursions, particularly in the Northeast.

Information environment / disinformation

The IE is acutely hostile, characterized by high-stakes strategic escalation and localized casualty reporting:

1. Strategic Coercion: The 'Oreshnik' messaging dominates the strategic layer, aiming to force UAF high command to divert attention and resources to managing the political/strategic threat during the critical tactical breakthrough period in the South.
2. Attribution Battle: UAF reporting of civilian casualties in Odesa (16:22Z) directly counters the RF claim (UNCONFIRMED) of a UAF drone strike killing Khersonenergo workers (16:12Z). UAF must leverage the Odesa incident for immediate strategic communication effect to counter the RF narrative.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Dedicated FPV Clearance Operations Followed by Armored Assault at Herasymivka (Before 2200Z). HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF forces will likely utilize the specialized FPV assets ("Shaman") to conduct targeted clearance of forward UAF defensive and anti-tank positions, immediately preceding the commitment of the 5th Tank Bde across the bridgehead. Supporting fires will continue to fix UAF defenses near Huliaipole and in the Eastern axis (Lyman vicinity).

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Southern Breakthrough & Amplified Strategic Missile Threat Validation. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RF executes the armored thrust and concurrently validates the strategic threat signaled by the "Oreshnik" deployment (16:21Z) through a highly publicized conventional long-range strike on a major UAF strategic logistics hub in Central or Western Ukraine, using precision munitions aimed at maximizing psychological and logistical disruption.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements