Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

DTG: 2025-12-18 16:07Z FOCUS: MAXIMIZED KINETIC FIXATION & INFRASTRUCTURE INTERDICTION

Key updates since last sitrep

• (15:52Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Confirmed repetitive launches of KAB glide bombs targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast. This signals RF intent to maximize kinetic fixation and suppression fires immediately prior to the anticipated armored maneuver on the Southern Axis.
• (16:04Z, Operatyvny ZSU, HIGH): Confirmed Shahed drone strike against the bridge in Mayaky, Odesa region. This is a successful RF interdiction strike targeting UAF ground logistics leading into the strategic Odesa port corridor.
• (15:35Z, Tsapliyenko/Politico, MEDIUM): Discussion regarding crucial EU financing for Ukraine was postponed to a later time at the EU summit, reintroducing uncertainty into the mid-term sustainment forecast despite the earlier breakthrough on frozen assets.
• (15:43Z, Operatyvny ZSU/Bloomberg, HIGH): UAF maritime drone activity has forced Russian oil tankers to hug the Turkish coast to mitigate attack risks, demonstrating effective UAF naval attrition strategy in the Black Sea.
• (15:53Z, UAF Gen Staff, HIGH): UAF successfully repelled 98 enemy attacks across the front lines over the last 24 hours, confirming the ongoing high intensity of contact, particularly on the Eastern axis.
• (15:53Z, 15:58Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Scheduled rolling blackouts (power curtailment) are expected tomorrow, Dec 19, across most regions, confirming measurable degradation of civilian energy infrastructure due to RF strikes.

Operational picture (by sector)

Southern Axis (Zaporizhzhia / Herasymivka)

RF pre-assault kinetic shaping has reached a climax. The confirmed repetitive KAB strikes (15:52Z) confirm the prioritization of the Zaporizhzhia sector for air fixation ahead of the imminent armored exploitation by the 5th Tank Bde. Meanwhile, fighting is confirmed near Huliaipole (16:00Z), consistent with a RF fixation effort to draw UAF reserves away from the main breakthrough point.

Southern Maritime / Odesa Axis

The threat to logistics has materialized. A confirmed Shahed strike on the Mayaky bridge (16:04Z) represents a significant physical disruption to key ground lines of communication (GLOCs) serving the Odesa region. Simultaneously, UAF Air Force confirms a new UAV threat vector toward Chornomorsk (15:36Z), suggesting further RF efforts to target port and coastal defense infrastructure.

Eastern Axis (Pokrovsk / Donetsk)

The focus of activity is shifting. RF milbloggers report "flanks in motion" around the Pokrovsk direction (16:01Z, 16:02Z). This unconfirmed claim suggests RF forces may be attempting to apply flanking pressure around the established defensive line, possibly targeting supply routes or critical C2 nodes deeper in the Donetsk Oblast. UAF forces confirm high resistance, having repelled 98 attacks in the last 24 hours (15:53Z).

Northeast Axis (Sumy)

RF air pressure is sustained. A UAV launch toward Sumy from the North (15:35Z) follows recent KAB strikes in the region, continuing the RF strategy of fixing UAF mobile air defense assets away from the Southern main effort.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

1. Kinetic Saturation and Breakthrough Preparation (CRITICAL / HIGH CONFIDENCE): The repetition of KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia, coupled with confirmed successful strikes on GLOCs (Mayaky bridge, Odesa), indicates RF operational intent has reached the final preparation phase for the ground maneuver. The simultaneous targeting of Sumy and Odesa confirms a theater-wide effort to degrade UAF defensive coordination and interdict logistics critical to reserve deployment.

2. Focus on Unmanned Systems Development (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE): RF Chief of General Staff highlighted the development of Unmanned Systems Forces (VBS) (15:43Z). This is a formalization of the trend observed with fiber-optic FPVs and mass drone attacks. This indicates future RF operations will heavily rely on decentralized, low-cost kinetic strikes integrated with ground forces, increasing the tactical requirement for kinetic AD and EW adaptation.

3. Strategic Deterrence & IO Campaign (HIGH CONFIDENCE): SVR Director Naryshkin continues a high-tempo IO campaign, claiming US acknowledgement of Ukraine's defeat (15:33Z) and accusing London of being the primary driver for war continuation (15:52Z). The repeated amplification of the 'Oreshnik' deployment (15:37Z) aims to solidify the perception of an immediate, escalating strategic threat coinciding with the tactical crisis.

Friendly activity (UAF)

UAF forces are maintaining a highly contested defense, repelling a high volume of attacks (98 daily). UAF maritime drone capability continues to yield strategic effects by forcing changes in Russian Federation Black Sea logistical patterns (15:43Z).

CRITICAL SUSTAINMENT ALERT: The postponement of the EU financing discussion (15:35Z) is a red flag. While the agreement on frozen assets provides long-term security, immediate budgetary stability may be challenged if this postponement leads to prolonged delay in fund transfer/commitment.

Information environment / disinformation

RF IO is operating at the strategic and internal psychological level:

1. Strategic Coercion: SVR targets US/UK/EU unity by presenting a narrative of Western defeatism and internal discord regarding the conflict's purpose ("strategic defeat" changed to "maximum damage") (16:02Z).
2. Infrastructure Fear: The successful drone strike on the Mayaky bridge, combined with the confirmed schedule for rolling blackouts (15:58Z), amplifies psychological pressure on the civilian population, attempting to degrade morale and stability ahead of the ground offensive.
3. Internal Morale Management: RF state media attempts to humanize Putin's leadership by stressing his intensive work schedule (15:48Z) and promotes domestic unity (new law on the state emblem, 16:00Z), while simultaneously responding to domestic pressure points like POW exchange equity and SVO veteran benefits (15:56Z, 16:03Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Initiated Armored Breakthrough at Herasymivka (H+0 to H+6). HIGH CONFIDENCE. RF has executed maximum kinetic preparation (repeated KABs and successful infrastructure interdiction at Mayaky). The window for the armored exploitation remains imminent (before 2200Z). The objective is to convert the tactical breach into an operational maneuver toward the Dnipropetrovsk border, supported by distracting attacks near Huliaipole and continued air pressure on Sumy/Kharkiv/Odesa.

MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Southern Breakthrough & Intensified Infrastructure Degradation Campaign. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. Concurrent with the Herasymivka breakthrough, RF launches a concentrated, large-scale strike on critical energy infrastructure and key logistics nodes (e.g., major railheads or ammunition depots in Central Ukraine), using long-range missiles and Shaheds, capitalizing on UAF AD stress caused by the multi-axis UAV/KAB campaign and the confirmed need for rolling blackouts.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements