Archived operational intelligence briefing
DTG: 2025-12-18 15:37Z FOCUS: KINETIC FIXATION CONVERGENCE & STRATEGIC COERCION WINDOW NARROWING
The imminent armored threat (5th Tank Bde / 37th GMRB) at the Herasymivka bridgehead is now supported by high-intensity kinetic shaping fires. Confirmed KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia Oblast (15:05Z) aim to interdict UAF counter-mobility assets and fixed defenses necessary to hold the line against the main armored thrust. RF Vostok Group continues its IO/fixation effort near Huliaipole (15:02Z), while also applying pressure on the Western flank through reported actions against UAF forces in the Dnipro island zone (Kherson direction, 15:31Z).
RF air fixation has extended to this sector with confirmed KAB launches toward Donetsk Oblast (15:06Z). This pressure appears designed to prevent UAF C2 activity and logistics movement, likely to mask any potential opportunistic RF push following the concentration of UAF reserves toward the South. UAF forces maintain tactical initiative in certain sub-sectors, confirmed by successful counter-fire (Lyman direction, 09:31Z) and localized attrition successes (Donetsk region, 15:22Z).
RF reconnaissance-strike complex remains active. A UAV was detected North of Kharkiv (15:28Z), indicating a renewed ISR cycle immediately following previous KAB strikes, signaling sustained air pressure on the region to fix UAF mobile Air Defense (AD) assets.
1. Multi-Domain Synchronization (CRITICAL / HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF operational planning is confirmed to involve simultaneous kinetic pressure across three major axes (Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia) via KAB strikes. This synchronized air effort aims to: a) Fix UAF AD and reserves in place. b) Degrade forward logistics/C2 nodes along the breakthrough corridors. c) Maximize psychological pressure just prior to the ground maneuver.
2. Strategic Deterrence Escalation (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The refinement of the "Oreshnik" combat duty declaration to Dec 19 (tomorrow) (15:05Z) places the strategic nuclear/long-range kinetic threat squarely within the anticipated window of the ground breakthrough. Lukashenko's description of Oreshnik as an ICBM (15:32Z) is assessed as deliberate rhetorical escalation to deter NATO/UAF high command response during the Southern Crisis.
3. Strategic Intelligence Coercion (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The SVR's move to explicitly name allied intelligence services participating in alleged informal contacts (15:19Z) is a hostile IO action calculated to achieve: a) Internal friction/counter-intelligence investigations in allied states. b) Undermine confidence in shared intelligence supporting UAF operations.
UAF forces are maintaining layered defense and conducting effective localized counter-attrition. The 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade reports successful artillery suppression (Lyman direction), and VORON Battalion demonstrated effective drone strikes in Donetsk. Critically, the diplomatic breakthrough regarding frozen Russian assets (15:17Z) ensures long-term resourcing and procurement certainty, allowing operational planners to focus on the immediate defensive challenge at Herasymivka without acute concern over strategic sustainment collapse.
RF activity is focused on strategic coercion and internal morale management:
MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action): Initiated Armored Breakthrough at Herasymivka (H+0 to H+6). HIGH CONFIDENCE. All indicators—the emptying of the 260th GRAU stocks (baseline), the positioning of the 5th Tank Bde (baseline), and the final multi-axis air fixation campaign (new KAB strikes)—point toward an imminent armored exploitation attempt across the Gaychur River within the immediate 6-hour window (before 2137Z). The RF objective remains converting the tactical breach into an operational maneuver toward the Dnipropetrovsk border.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action): Breakthrough & Strategic Kinetic Strike Demonstration. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RF launches the Herasymivka offensive while simultaneously executing a long-range kinetic strike against a strategic logistics hub in Central or Western Ukraine (e.g., Kremenchuk, Kropyvnytskyi). This strike would utilize either the 800km Iskander variant or a conventional strike framed by IO as a demonstration of the newly 'combat-ready' Oreshnik system, seeking to achieve maximum deterrent and disruptive effect against UAF logistical resupply from the West.
| Priority | Gap Description | Requirement / Tasking | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 (CRITICAL) | Physical crossing of RF heavy armor (MBTs/IFVs) at the Herasymivka bridgehead. | GEOINT/ISR (Southern Command): Immediate high-frequency monitoring of the Gaychur River crossing points. | Confirmation triggers the release of the UAF Operational Reserve and anti-armor counter-thrust protocols. |
| P2 (CRITICAL) | Technical specifications of "Oreshnik" system and its confirmed location in Belarus. | MASINT/OSINT (Strategic Desk): Verification of technical capability (range, warhead type) versus political claims (ICBM). Confirm coordinates/readiness of the launch site. | Quantifies the actual threat window and informs AD deployment prioritization for tomorrow (Dec 19). |
| P3 (URGENT) | Detailed target assessment of KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts. | HUMINT/ISR (Southern/Eastern Commands): Determine if confirmed strikes impacted military logistics, C2 nodes, or UAF mobile AD positions. | Essential for optimizing the placement and mobility of UAF AD assets to protect reserves during deployment to the Southern axis. |
| P4 (PRIORITY) | Scale and sustainability of new RF fiber-optic guided FPV drone deployment. | SIGINT/ISR (Northeast/Eastern Commands): Determine if this capability is localized (106th VDV) or being theater-wide deployed. | Directly informs urgency and scale of counter-FPV kinetic interception training and deployment needed. |
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